Over the next few days, we will review the various elections for all the statewide, General Assembly, city and county races that will be decided next Tuesday. And we will make some predictions. We have decided them into three categories. First, the safe races. Then, the possibly competitive races, and then finally, the Toss-Ups. We are tackling the easy ones first. Most of the races below are safe for the simple reason that the projected winner does not have an opponent. You can’t be something with nothing.
But the Statewide races of Governor, Lt. Governor, U.S. Senator, U.S. Representative and Insurance Commissioner do have contested races. But they are not competitive. Senator Chris Coons is facing a literal Nazi, who is explicitly running a White Power campaign. She will lose by 40 points. Congresswoman Lisa Blunt Rochester is facing an actor whose sole credit is a nonspeaking role for five seconds in House of Cards. She is looking at a 30 point victory. Lt. Governor Hall Long and Insurance Commissioner Navarro have done nothing to offend the Democratic voter in this election, so they will be swept back into office with 20 point or more victories over unknown opponents on a Democratic wave that elects the first Delawarean to be President of the United States.
That leaves Governor John Carney. He is facing an independent expenditure campaign of television ads and mailers that are all over the place in terms of attack. They attack him from the left on racial justice, from the left and right on the pandemic, and from the right over irrelevant state land sales from a decade ago. The campaign is being paid for by the Citizens for Transparency & Inclusion, which is an offshoot of Citizens for a Pro-Business Delaware, an organization created after the Court of Chancery in 2015 ordered the constantly bickering owners of the translation services company TransPerfect to sell the business.
TransPerfect co-owner Phil Shawe holds a grudge. And he apparently has no problem setting fire to his millions of dollars, since none of his ads in the past have ever changed any electoral outcome. And they will not again this year. Carney will coast to victory as well, by a 15 to 20 point margin. Those who are pissed at pandemic restrictions are already Trump voters, and history has shown they are most decidedly in the minority in the First State.
THE STATEWIDE RACES
- GOVERNOR–John Carney over Julianne Murray
- LT. GOVERNOR–Bethany Hall Long over Donyale Hall
- INSURANCE COMMISSIONER–Trinidad Navarro over Julia Pillsbury
- US SENATOR–Chris Coons over Lauren Witzke
- US REPRESENTATIVE–Lisa Blunt Rochester over Lee Murphy
THE STATE SENATE
- 8th SD–Dave Sokola
- 12th SD–Nicole Poore
- 19th SD–Brian Pettyjohn
- 20th SD–Gerald Hocker
These races are highlighted in dark blue and dark red in the Senate District map below. As we go through the coming posts, this map will be filled in with the remaining Senate predictions.
THE STATE HOUSE
- 1st RD–Nnamdi Chukwuocha
- 2nd RD–Stephanie Bolden
- 3rd RD–Sherry D. Walker
- 5th RD–Kendra Johnson
- 6th RD–Debra Heffernan
- 1Oth RD–Sean Matthews
- 11th RD–Jeff Spiegelman
- 13th RD–Larry Mitchell
- 14th RD–Peter Schwartzkopf
- 16th RD–Franklin Cooke
- 17th RD–Melissa Minor Brown
- 18th RD–David Bentz
- 19th RD–Kimberly Williams
- 20th RD–Stephen Smyk
- 23rd RD–Paul Baumbach
- 24th RD–Ed Osienski
- 25th RD–John Kowalko
- 28th RD–Bill Carson
- 37th RD–Ruth Briggs King
- 38th RD–Ronald Gray
- 39th RD–Daniel Short
- 40th RD–Tim Dukes
- 41st RD–Richard Collins
These races are highlighted in dark blue and dark red in the House District map below. As we go through the coming posts, this map will be filled in with the remaining House predictions.
COUNTY RACES
- NCCo. EXECUTIVE–Matt Meyer
- NCCo. COUNCIL 7–George Smiley
- NCCo. COUNCIL 8–John Cartier
- NCCo. COUNCIL 9–Tim Sheldon
- NCCo. COUNCIL 10–Jea Street
- NCCo. COUNCIL 11–David Tackett
- NCCo. COUNCIL 12–William Bell
- NCCo. CLERK OF THE PEACE–Lisa Marie Darrah
- SUSSEX COUNCIL 2–Cynthia Green
- SUSSEX COUNCIL 3–Mark Schaeffer
- SUSSEX CLERK OF THE PEACE–Norman Jones, Jr.
CITY RACES
- WILMINGTON MAYOR–Mike Purzycki
- WILMINGTON TREASURER–Dewayne Sims
- WILMINGTON COUNCIL PRESIDENT–Ernest Congo III
- WILMINGTON CITY COUNCIL 1–Linda Gray
- WILMINGTON CITY COUNCIL 2–Shane Darby
- WILMINGTON CITY COUNCIL 3–Zanthia Oliver
- WILMINGTON CITY COUNCIL 4–Michelle Harlee
- WILMINGTON CITY COUNCIL 5–Bregetta Fields over Alexander Hackett
- WILMINGTON CITY COUNCIL 6–Yolanda McCoy
- WILMINGTON CITY COUNCIL 7–Chris Johnson over Dayl Thomas
- WILMINGTON CITY COUNCIL 8–Nathan Field
- WILMINGTON CITY COUNCIL AL–Loretta Walsh
- WILMINGTON CITY COUNCIL AL–Maria Cabrera
- WILMINGTON CITY COUNCIL AL–Rysheema Dixon
Thank you for routinely posting maps. As someone whose interest in local politics is hampered by the state having taken away my right to vote, I just don’t know enough about the races as I can’t participate anymore. At least maps help me know who is where.
Pillsbury is well known and respected in Kent as a pediatrician at least and the accusations against Navarro May drive a few away. I think that one may be a little closer than Lt. Gov. but certainly not enough to make it competitive this year.
There is one more Wilmington City Council race to account for and that is the “minority party” seat. Currently held by Ciro Adams, and being challenged by Adams, Calvin Brown and James Spadola. This looks to be Spadola in a walk. And you can watch this program from September with all 3 candidates to judge for yourself:
https://www.facebook.com/BIGIVE08/videos/10218321498772960