The Campaign Report – Biden Landslide Continues

A new Quinnipiac poll finds Joe Biden leading Donald Trump nationally by 15 points, 52% to 37%.

Key finding: Trump’s approval rate is now a dismal 36% to 60% — a 6 point drop in his job approval compared to last month.

Said pollster Tim Malloy: “Yes, there’s still 16 weeks until Election Day, but this is a very unpleasant real time look at what the future could be for President Trump. There is no upside, no silver lining, no encouraging trend hidden somewhere in this survey for the president.”

Though Joe Biden’s 15-point national lead in the new Quinnipiac poll is the headline, the survey joins other recent polls from Pew Research, CNN and the New York Times in showing Biden with an unprecedented lead among college-educated white voters. The Quinnipiac poll shows Biden’s with an astonishing 33-point lead over Trump among this demographic group, 64% to 31%.

If you’re a down-ballot Republican facing a suburban electorate this fall, it’s an absolute nightmare to have Trump at the top of the ticket.

A new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll finds Joe Biden leading the presidential race nationally by 11 points, 51% to 40%. Trump’s approval rate dropped to 42% to 56%.

Said pollster Peter Hart: “President Trump has hit the trifecta in the misery market. The three key indicators—job rating, personal feelings, attitudes on re-election—are all deeply submerged underwater. They represent the best measure of the standing and political strength of an incumbent president.”

A new Monmouth poll in Pennsylvania shows Joe Biden leading Donald Trump by 13 points among registered voters, 53% to 40%.

Key takeaway: “Biden is doing especially well in ten counties where the vote margins were closest in the 2016 presidential election. The Democrat currently holds a 54% to 35% lead among registered voters in these swing counties.”

Said pollster Patrick Murray: “Even taking into account any polling error from four years ago, Biden is clearly doing well in swing areas. The Democrat has roots in this region which may be helping him, but there seems to be an overall erosion of support for Trump compared to 2016.”

Further, the poll provides more evidence that President Trump’s attempt to whip up his base voters is actually alienating many more voters outside his base.

Among college-educated white voters, Biden leads Trump by 27 points, 61% to 34%. The 2016 exit polls found Trump was tied with Hillary Clinton among this group, 48% to 48%. Among independent voters, Biden leads Trump by 21 points, 54% to 33%. The 2016 exit polls showed Trump winning these voters, 48% to 41%.

It’s impossible to see how Trump’s strategy of using divisive cultural issues — such as defending Confederate symbols and being openly racist — is going to close these margins.

Former Auburn football coach Tommy Tuberville (R) defeated former Attorney General Jeff Sessions (R) in Alabama’s Republican primary runoff election on Tuesday, setting up a November match up with current Sen. Doug Jones (D), the AP reports.

Turnout for the Alabama GOP Senate runoff  was abysmal, and one Republican strategist told the New York Times you can’t just blame it on the coronavirus.

Said Angi Stalnaker: “The story here is that Trump cannot turn out votes in the reddest state in the country. That should worry him.”

Michael Tesler: “First, while Biden voters may not be all that excited about voting for Biden, they’re very enthusiastic about voting against Trump. And that gives Biden a pretty strong edge, because Trump supporters don’t despise Biden the way they despised Hillary Clinton in 2016. In fact, according to survey data from the Democracy Fund + UCLA Nationscape project, the share of Trump voters who rate Biden unfavorably is consistently much lower than the share of Biden voters who rate Trump negatively — nearly 30 percentage points lower as of the last survey conducted at the end of June.”

“Second, because Trump voters don’t dislike Biden as much as Biden voters dislike Trump, Biden actually has an advantage in net enthusiasm (calculated as the difference between a candidate’s ‘very favorable’ and ‘very unfavorable’ rating). The gap on this metric has widened between the two in the past month, too.”

A new Economist/YouGov poll finds Joe Biden leading Donald Trump in the presidential race nationally, 49% to 40%. Trump’s job approval is now 39% to 54%.

A new Change Research poll finds Biden leading 51% to 41%. Biden also leads in six major battleground states:

  • Arizona: Biden 51%, Trump 45%
  • Florida: Biden 50%, Trump 43%
  • Michigan: Biden 48%, Trump 42%
  • North Carolina: Biden 47%, Trump 46%
  • Pennsylvania: Biden 50%, Trump 42%
  • Wisconsin: Biden 48%, Trump 42%

Kanye West has dropped his 2020 presidential bid, Fox News reports.

Trump campaign lawyer Jenna Ellis, who has criticized voting-by-mail and warned without evidence that it could lead to election fraud, previously voted by mail at least three times, CNN reports.

“President Trump’s harsh rhetoric against mail-in voting is causing a big problem for Florida Republicans, who once dominated the practice here,” Politico reports.

“So the state GOP came up with a solution: They doctored one of Trump’s tweets on the issue to remove the stigma.”

“In a mass-solicitation designed to boost flagging interest in registering to vote by mail, the Republican Party of Florida featured a Trump tweet from June 28 that praised absentee ballots but that had his opposition to mail-in voting strategically edited out.”

Democrats have spent six times as much money on television ads in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin so far in 2020 than they did at the same point four years ago, McClatchy reports.

The latest quarterly slide deck from lobbyist Bruce Mehlman highlights the extraordinary political realignment taking place in the country.

Mehlman sees the 2016 presidential election as a turning point in a broader political realignment, with college-educated suburbanites shifting towards the Democrats and working-class whites shifting towards the Republicans.

He also notes the record level of racial and gender polarization in the electorate. Women now overwhelmingly support Democratic candidates, while Republicans have become an even whiter party in the Trump era.

These trends have only accelerated throughout Trump’s presidency.

A decade ago, the most reliable predictor of a voter’s partisan leanings was whether they went to church each week. Today, education level is an even better predictor of which party they support.

As the electorate continues to split on race, gender and education, expect even the culture wars to ramp up in the coming years.

The Navigator tracking poll finds President Trump’s job approval rating has hit a new low in the history of the poll, 39% to 59%. For comparison, the FiveThirtyEight polling average shows Trump’s approval at 40% to 55%.

A new Trump campaign ad declares, “You won’t be safe in Joe Biden’s America.” However, what’s striking is the ad uses the present tense and shows video of protests and violence happening right now — during Donald Trump’s America.

“Rep. Steve Watkins (R-KS) was charged Tuesday with three felonies and a misdemeanor related to an investigation into whether he illegally voted in a 2019 municipal election,” the Kansas City Star reports.

“The felony charges are interference with law enforcement by providing false information, voting without being qualified and unlawful advance voting. Watkins also faces a misdemeanor charge for failing to the notify the DMV of his change of address.”

Politico: “In the days after President Trump’s poorly attended rally in Tulsa, Okla., senior campaign aides repeatedly assured their optics-obsessed boss it was a one-off debacle. They demoted a longtime staffer who had managed logistics for the failed campaign comeback. They went to work locating the perfect site for a do-over MAGA rally large enough to quell suggestions of declining enthusiasm among Trump’s base. And they quickly settled on New Hampshire, the state that jump-started Trump’s political movement four years ago and managed to dodge the brunt of Covid-19 during its rapid spread across the Northeast this spring.”

“Then it all fell apart with a Friday afternoon phone call from campaign manager Brad Parscale. The abrupt cancellation of the airport-hangar event — which the Trump team blamed on an incoming tropical storm that never materialized, but three officials privately attributed to concerns about attendance — underscored the recurring challenge Trump aides face: Recreate the president’s marquee campaign rallies amid a once-in-a-century health crisis without upsetting a boss who views crowd size as a leading metric for evaluating his campaign’s success.”

“It also raised questions about the fate of down-ballot Republicans if the coattail effect — an incumbent president’s ability to attract votes for other candidates in his party — is no longer guaranteed.”

“Republican strategists are warning that President Trump’s push to reopen schools will flop with critical suburban voters unless the coronavirus is put in check and confidence in his pandemic leadership revives,” the Washington Examiner reports.

Washington Post: “A porn star was paid to keep silent about her alleged dalliance years earlier with a presidential candidate, which a judge has agreed was an illegal violation of campaign finance laws.”

“The private emails of Democrats were stolen and published, which prosecutors have said was an illegal intervention into the U.S. political system by foreign operatives.”

“The two crimes were undertaken to help Donald Trump’s campaign in 2016. They led to the indictment or conviction of 13 men, including Trump’s personal attorney. But for nearly four years, Trump has bullied, browbeaten and litigated his way out of efforts to pin down whether he had involvement in or knowledge of the illicit actions that were undertaken to help his presidential campaign.”

Delaware politics from a liberal, progressive and Democratic perspective. Keep Delaware Blue.

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