The Campaign Report – Great Polling Everywhere

A new CNBC All-America Economic Survey shows Joe Biden leads Donald Trump in the presidential race nationally, 47% to 38% among registered voters, up four points from his lead in April.

Trump’s approval rate is a dismal 39% to 52%.

New battleground polls from Redfield and Wilton:

  • Arizona: Biden 43%, Trump 39%
  • Florida: Biden 45%, Trump 41%
  • Michigan: Biden 47%, Trump 36%
  • North Carolina: Biden 48%, Trump 40%
  • Pennsylvania: Biden 49%, Trump 39%
  • Wisconsin: Biden 45%, Trump 36%

New polls from Hodas & Associates, a GOP polling firm:

We have new Fox News poll in several battleground states:

The latest New York Times/Sienna poll also included three U.S. Senate races:

  • North Carolina: Cal Cunningham (D) 42%, Thom Tillis (R) 39%
  • Michigan: Gary Peters (D) 41%, John James (R) 31%
  • Arizona: Mark Kelly (D) 47%, Martha McSally (R) 38%

A new Washington Post-Ipsos poll finds Joe Biden currently leads Donald Trump by a not-unexpectedly lopsided margin among black registered voters, 92% to 5%.

A new Lincoln Project ad shows how past presidents have risen to the occasion after national tragedies while Donald Trump has not.

“Donald Trump’s reelection campaign manager, Brad Parscale, is one of a group of campaign staffers in quasi-quarantine after he attended a rally in Oklahoma last weekend where eight campaign aides tested positive for the novel coronavirus,” the Daily Beast reports.

CNN reports several Trump campaign staffers are in quarantine after attending his rally in Tulsa last Saturday and interacting with several colleagues who later tested positive for coronavirus.

While numbers are still coming in, Kentucky Secretary of State Michael Adams (R) predicted record voter turnout following Tuesday’s primary election and said a big part of that strong turnout was early and absentee voting, WHAS reports.

Adams said absentee ballots accounted for about 85% of total votes, with in-person votes coming in at 15%.

Inside Elections: “In 2014, Republicans took over nine Democratic Senate seats — the largest gain in two decades — and with them control of the chamber for the first time since 2006.”

“Six years, two Senate elections, and one presidential upset later, the Republican Senate majority teeters on an edge, as the same class of seats that cost Democrats control in 2014 faces another election.”

“But there are striking differences in the composition of this cycle’s Senate battlefield compared to the same class in 2014, differences that illustrate the larger political trends of the past decade.”

FiveThirtyEight: “Biden has a sizable edge over President Trump in the states that are most likely to be the tipping point in the Electoral College, and he leads or is running even with Trump in some states that leaned Republican in 2016. As a result, Trump’s much-ballyhooed Electoral College advantage doesn’t look strong enough to save him — for the moment, at least.”

New York Times: “Ms. Duckworth is among more than one dozen women who have been considered by the Biden campaign to join his ticket, and she is among a smaller group asked to submit documents for vetting. But she is rarely talked up by Washington’s consultant class.”

“She is not one of the Democratic senators who ran for the top job this cycle and then became part of the vice-presidential search. She is not from a battleground state; vice-presidential candidates often are. She is not among the running-mate contenders who are black; many leading Democrats feel Mr. Biden should choose a black woman, in part because of the growing public attention to and support for fighting systemic racism. Her politics are in some ways abstruse; she largely votes with her party but she is not particularly identified with any progressive cause, other than an often bipartisan distaste for protracted foreign entanglements.”

Joe Biden told KDKA in Pittsburgh he would require Americans to wear face masks to slow the spread of the coronavirus. Good.

Robert Regan (R), who is vying for a seat in the Michigan state House, has offered an odd explanation for why his daughter publicly called on voters to “pls for the love of god do not vote for my dad,” The Hill reports.

Regan explained that his daughter, Stephanie, urged people to vote against him because she attended a liberal college and “and you know, they just kind of get sucked into this Marxist, communist ideology.”

Joshua Green: “Over the past several months, a presidential race already upended by a global pandemic and historic recession has developed an odd characteristic that’s making it even more unusual: President Trump, the incumbent, and Joe Biden, his challenger, have effectively swapped roles.”

“The sitting president is campaigning like an outsider, lobbing incendiary tweets and blaming others for the failures of the government he himself presides over. Biden, meanwhile, is acting like a traditional incumbent, running on his record and the promise of familiarity.”

Carly Fiorina was a Republican candidate for president just four years ago, and was briefly Ted Cruz’s prospective running mate, but she tells The Ticket Donald Trump needs to go and that means she’s voting for Joe Biden.

More importantly, Fiorina “is not going to keep quiet, write in another candidate, or vote third-party.”

Said Fiorina: “I’ve been very clear that I can’t support Donald Trump. And elections are binary choices.”

Politico: “Republican officials and Trump campaign aides, some of whom have been working since last year to plan the party’s convention festivities, said the disappointing Tulsa event last weekend imparted a critical lesson as they look ahead to Jacksonville, where Trump will deliver his acceptance speech as the GOP’s presidential nominee in late August: Learn to manage expectations and plan for trouble.”

Said one adviser: “The last thing we want to do is over-promise and under-deliver. Obviously we wish Tulsa had not turned out the way it did, but it was a useful reminder of what we hope to avoid next time.”

Delaware politics from a liberal, progressive and Democratic perspective. Keep Delaware Blue.

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