In a head-to-head presidential election match up, a new Quinnipiac poll finds President Biden leading Donald Trump nationally, 48% to 45%.
When the match up is expanded to include independent candidates, Trump edges Biden, 39% to 38%, with Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. at 13%, Jill Stein at 4% and Cornel West at 3%.
Said pollster Tim Malloy: “Way too close to call on the head-to-head and even closer when third party candidates are counted. The backstretch is months away and this is about as close as it can get.”
“The progressive rallying cry of ‘tax the rich’ has morphed into a popular policy stance with voters in the key states that will decide the 2024 election, enjoying support even among those who prefer billionaire Donald Trump,” according to the latest Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll.
“Robert F. Kennedy Jr. on Tuesday named Nicole Shanahan, a Silicon Valley lawyer, investor and political neophyte, as his running mate in his independent presidential bid,” the New York Times reports.
“His advisers and backers hope the move will inject new energy — as well as financial support — into his long-shot bid for the White House, as his campaign gears up for months of legal battles to place his name on state ballots.”
“A super PAC supporting Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s independent presidential bid said it raised over $2 million following the candidate’s official announcement of his running mate,” The Hill reports.
“Donald Trump attacked Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the independent presidential candidate, on Wednesday morning, casting Mr. Kennedy as a liberal Democrat in disguise while also seeming to back him as a spoiler for President Biden’s campaign,” the New York Times reports.
“Mr. Trump’s post, which came a day after Mr. Kennedy announced his running mate, underscores the political wild card that is Mr. Kennedy’s bid. Even as Mr. Trump asserted that Mr. Kennedy’s independent campaign would be a boon to his own effort to beat Mr. Biden, two Trump campaign officials said they had seen polling that showed Mr. Kennedy drawing support from independent voters in a way that could be equally detrimental to both Mr. Trump and Mr. Biden.”
Playbook: “At this point, we know about all there is to know about Biden and Trump. Both men have run for president before. Both men have won the White House. Both have been in the glare of public scrutiny since bell bottoms were fashionable and cars came with 8-track stereos.”
“And yet for all we know about these men and this campaign, it’s a third man — one who has been in the public consciousness for just as long, if not longer — who has emerged as the known unknown of the 2024 race: Robert F. Kennedy Jr..”
“This much people agree on: RFK Jr. is a spoiler.”
“What they don’t quite agree on is whose campaign his candidacy is spoiling.”
Jonathan Last: “RFK was never a serious threat to win a lot of votes, but with each passing day his candidacy looks increasingly like a dagger pointed at the heart of MAGA. And his choice of running mate is wild.”
“Yesterday, Kennedy announced that his VP will be Nicole Shanahan, who isn’t just the least-qualified, most preposterous character ever to appear on a presidential ticket polling above 5 percent. She’s also going to be catnip to a particular kind of low-intensity Trump voter.”
“Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who built his public profile as an environmental activist and crusader against polluters, earned tens of thousands of dollars from an oil and gas rights leasing company,” Politico reports.
“The independent presidential candidate reported the earnings on his financial disclosure form filed last June from Arctic Royalty Limited Partnership, which leases land for oil and gas extraction in Oklahoma, Texas and other states.”
“With Robert F. Kennedy Jr. set to unveil his running mate on Tuesday, an unforeseen hiccup has emerged in Nevada, complicating the long-shot independent’s path to gaining ballot access in the Silver State,” CBS News reports.
“Kennedy’s vice presidential pick comes as he needs a running mate to qualify for the ballot in multiple states. And despite the campaign’s announcement earlier this month celebrating amassing 15,000 signatures in Nevada, which exceeds what’s needed to get on the ballot in November, the campaign could be forced to start its signature collection from scratch in the state because it failed to name a running mate when it filed Kennedy’s petition.”
President Biden’s campaign slammed Donald Trump as “weak and desperate – both as a man and a candidate for president.”
The statement continued: “He spent the weekend golfing, the morning comparing himself to Jesus, and the afternoon lying about having money he definitely doesn’t have. His campaign can’t raise money, he is uninterested in campaigning outside his country club, and every time he opens his mouth, he pushes moderate and suburban voters away with his dangerous agenda.”
It concludes: “America deserves better than a feeble, confused, and tired Donald Trump.”
“The White House has been adding more jobs to their scheduling and advance team, a sign that President Biden is ramping up for a robust travel schedule in the coming months as he readies for a fierce reelection battle against former President Donald Trum,” The Hill reports.
NEW HAMPSHIRE 2ND DISTRICT. Democratic Rep. Annie Kuster unexpectedly announced Wednesday that she would not seek a seventh term representing New Hampshire’s 2nd Congressional District. Her departure opens up a constituency that Joe Biden carried by a solid 54-45 margin in 2020, but that Republicans haven’t given up trying to flip.
Kuster’s retirement moves her district from the 42nd most vulnerable Democratic-held seat on Daily Kos Elections’ House Vulnerability Index to the 14th spot. This shift means that Kuster’s now-open seat, which includes the northern and western parts of the state, now ranks higher than the districts held by prominent Republican targets like Maine Rep. Jared Golden and New Mexico Rep. Gabe Vasquez.
Republicans, however, would need to burn a good deal of money to make a serious play for Kuster’s seat. Over three-quarters of the 2nd District is located in the expensive Boston media market, while the balance is split between smaller markets in Burlington, Vermont, and Portland, Maine.
And it may be a while before this race comes into focus. While the Granite State has stubbornly defended its first-in-the-nation presidential primary, its Sept. 10 downballot primary is at the very end of the season. New Hampshire’s June 14 candidate filing deadline, likewise, comes after all but three other states.
Observers quickly speculated that former Executive Councilor Colin Van Ostern, who lost a tight 2016 contest for governor to Republican Chris Sununu, could seek the Democratic nod. Van Ostern, who was the campaign manager for Kuster’s unsuccessful first bid for Congress, notably fired off his first tweets since 2020 on Wednesday to praise his old boss, though he didn’t address his own plans.
The Union Leader’s Kevin Landrigan also mentions several other Democrats who could run:
- State Sen. Donovan Fenton
- Businessman Gary Hirshberg
- State Sen. Sue Prentiss
- State Sen. Cindy Rosenwald
- Former Executive Councilor Andru Volinsky
- State Sen. Becky Whitley
On the GOP side, Landrigan and the National Journal’s James Downs list the following possible contenders:
- State Insurance Commissioner D. J. Bettencourt
- Nashua Alderman Tyler Gouveia
- Businessman Bill Hamlen
- Former Keene Mayor George Hansel
- Former state GOP chair Stephen Stepanek
- Republican state Sen. Daryl Abbas, however, tells WMUR he won’t run.
Kuster, whose great-grandfather served as governor in the early 20th century, grew up in what she described to Roll Call as a family of “liberal Republicans.” Her father, Malcolm McLane, was a member of the state’s powerful Executive Council, while her mother, Susan McLane, served in both chambers of the state legislature. Susan McLane also ran for the 2nd District in 1980 only to lose the GOP primary to eventual winner Judd Gregg; just behind was Charlie Bass, who would pose a major obstacle to Kuster’s rise three decades later.
Kuster herself spent the late 1970s working for California Rep. Pete McCloskey, a liberal Republican who had famously run an anti-war primary challenge against President Richard Nixon in 1972. Kuster, who became a local attorney and healthcare lobbyist, joined the Democratic Party well before her first bid for office and was a prominent supporter of John Kerry and Barack Obama during the 2004 and 2008 presidential primaries, respectively.
Kuster got her chance to run for the House in 2010 when Democratic Rep. Paul Hodes left to campaign to succeed Gregg in the Senate, but she had a tough contest ahead of her. While Obama had carried the 2nd District 56-43 two years earlier, both parties recognized that the emerging red wave posed a serious risk to Democrats in this longtime swing state. Republicans also got some welcome news when Bass, a relatively moderate figure who lost reelection to Hodes in 2006, decided to make a comeback and won his primary.
Kuster, who secured her own nomination 71-29 against centrist rival Katrina Swett, waged a well-funded general election campaign and nearly overcame a brutal tide that devastated Democrats coast to cast. But Bass prevailed 48-47 as Republican Kelly Ayotte was clobbering Hodes statewide and the GOP was securing supermajorities in both chambers of the legislature.
Kuster had impressed fellow Democrats, though, and she faced no primary opposition when she ran again in 2012. The political climate was far better for her this time, though Republicans took advantage of a video of Kuster grabbing a camera out of the hands of what her campaign characterized as an “aggressive tracker.” The Democrat, however, still beat Bass 50-45 as Obama was winning the 2nd District 54-45.
Republicans targeted Kuster for defeat the following cycle, and multiple national publications ran favorable profiles about her 31-year-old opponent, state Rep. Marilinda Garcia. But Garcia, who dealt with a plagiarism scandal late in the race, did not live up to the hype, and Kuster won 55-45 in another tough year for Democrats.
The congresswoman seemed to be on track for another decisive victory in 2016, but she held off her underfunded foe, former state Rep. Jim Lawrence, by a relatively modest 50-45 spread as Hillary Clinton was carrying the 2nd by a small 49-46 margin. However, Kuster returned to form by easily prevailing in both 2018 and 2020.
Following the most recent census, the Republican majority in the legislature was convinced she was safe going forward, and it planned to make her seat even bluer in order to weaken fellow Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas in the 1st District. Sununu, though, believed both members were beatable, and the governor’s veto threats created an impasse that sent redistricting to the courts and left the map essentially unchanged.
In 2022, Sununu supported Keene Mayor George Hansel, a self-described “pro-choice” candidate, but national Democrats successfully intervened in the primary. Former Hillsborough County Treasurer Robert Burns narrowly outpaced Hansel, and Kuster handily beat him 56-44 in what would turn out to be her final campaign.
PENNSYLVANIA U.S. SENATOR. David McCormick (R) “is launching one of the first general election Senate ads of 2024, with a biographical spot that focuses on the glory and grit of high school wrestling in Pennsylvania,” Axios reports.
“McCormick — who was pilloried by his 2022 GOP primary opponent for having been CEO of Connecticut-based Bridgewater Associates, one of the world’s largest hedge funds — is spending early to tell his Pennsylvania story on his terms.”
ALASKA U.S. SENATOR. In an interview with CNN on Sunday, Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski didn’t rule out becoming an independent, citing her disgust with Donald Trump. “I am navigating my way through some very interesting political times,” she said. “Let’s just leave it at that.” But Murkowski, who won her most recent term in 2022, did not address whether she’d remain a member of the GOP caucus even if she bolted the party. The senator previously told Politico in 2021 there was “no way” she’d caucus with Senate Democrats.
MICHIGAN 8TH DISTRICT and U.S. SENATOR. State Board of Education member Nikki Snyder announced Friday that she was ending her campaign for the Republican nomination for the U.S. Senate and would instead run to succeed retiring Democratic Rep. Dan Kildee in the competitive 8th District. Snyder gives Republicans an alternative to Paul Junge, a former Trump immigration official who badly lost to Kildee 53-43 last cycle, but she may not be strong enough to put up a tough fight in the primary.
Snyder, who is not related to former Gov. Rick Snyder, won an eight-year term in 2016 on the Board of Education, whose members are elected statewide. Four years later, she tried to campaign against Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin for what was then numbered the 8th District. However, her underfunded campaign collapsed after election officials determined she didn’t submit enough signatures to make the primary ballot. The GOP nod ultimately went to Junge, who lost to Slotkin 51-47. (The old 8th District does not overlap with the constituency that both Republicans are seeking now.)
Snyder set her sights on an even bigger prize this cycle when she became the first notable Republican to enter the race to replace retiring Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow, but she once again had problems attracting money or attention. Snyder finished 2023 with just $93,000 in the bank, and she barely registered in the polls on the occasions her name was even included.
Snyder lives outside the 8th District near Ann Arbor, but she argued she nonetheless has ties to her would-be constituents. “[T]echnically I would be the only candidate who represents them right now, from a Republican standpoint,” she told the Detroit News, “as I’m a statewide elected official who represents them in education and will continue to do so in Congress.” (House members are not required to live in the district they represent, only the state.) The primary is Aug. 6.
“A Republican Party committee is privately warning its candidates that just hitting President Biden will be ‘insufficient’ to win in November,” Axios reports.
“The GOP’s top fundraising committee for state-level leaders argued that Biden doesn’t hurt candidates down ballot in the way some presidents have in the past.”
Dustin Elbey legally changed his name to “Literally Anybody Else” and launched his bid for president this month, WFAA reports.
“You can’t have an election in the middle of a political season.”— Donald Trump, at a news conference earlier today.
Former Rep. Liz Cheney (R-WY) drew a huge crowd in Iowa last night.
Montana U.S. Senate candidate Tim Sheehy (R) has repeatedly told supporters he would support getting rid of the Department of Homeland Security, the agency tasked with border security, Axios reports.
NORTH DAKOTA AT LARGE DISTRICT. Former state Rep. Tom Campbell announced Tuesday that he was quitting the June 11 primary to replace Republican Rep. Kelly Armstrong, who is running for governor.
Campbell, who claimed last week that the campaign of Public Service Commissioner Julie Fedorchak “threatened” to air negative rumors about him, explained his decision to leave the race by writing, “I feel it would be a better use of my time to avoid a negative campaign, ignoring any threats and focus on the positive, where I can contribute to the well-being of others.”
Fedorchak has denied Campbell’s allegations, but she appears to have the most to gain from his exit. Columnist Rob Port, who co-hosted the radio show on which Campbell made his accusations, wrote that there was “concern among traditionally conservative Republicans” that Fedorchak and Campbell could divide this bloc enough for former state Rep. Rick Becker to secure the nomination with a plurality. Port now argues there’s less of a chance that Becker, who co-founded the legislature’s hardline Bastiat Caucus, can prevail.
The GOP field also includes former State Department official Alex Balazs, but it remains to be seen if he can wage a serious effort. The filing deadline is April 8, so it’s possible someone else might still jump in.
SOUTH DAKOTA AT LARGE DISTRICT. Candidate filing closed Tuesday for South Dakota’s June 4 primaries, though unlike in Missouri, there was no major last-minute drama. The only member of Congress who is up for reelection in 2024 is GOP Rep. Dusty Johnson, but he has no serious intra-party opposition in this dark red state.
In fact, the secretary of state’s office doesn’t list any opponents for Johnson at all as of Wednesday evening, though that doesn’t necessarily mean he’ll run unopposed. The site says that “[c]andidates will not be listed until the Secretary of State’s office receives the official certification(s) from county central committees or state political parties.”
MICHIGAN REDISTRICTING. The three-judge federal panel that struck down Michigan’s state House map late last year has approved the replacement map that Michigan’s independent redistricting commission recently passed. The court had overturned the previous map after concluding that commissioners improperly relied on race when drawing districts in the Detroit area, but it rejected plaintiffs’ arguments that the new map had similar flaws. Plaintiffs have not yet indicated whether they will appeal to the Supreme Court.
While the new map significantly increased the Black population in several Detroit districts, the partisan impact was more limited. According to data from Dave’s Redistricting App, Donald Trump won a 56-54 majority of seats, just as with the previous map. One seat did see a considerable shift, though: The 13th District in the suburbs northeast of Detroit went from a 64-35 margin for Joe Biden to just a 50-48 Biden win.
Democrat Lori Stone easily won the current version of the 13th in 2022, though it’s been vacant for months following her election as mayor of the city of Warren last year. Stone’s successor will be chosen in an April 16 special election, where Democrat Mai Xiong is heavily favored against Republican Ronald Singer. However, Xiong could be in for a much tougher race if she runs in the new 13th this fall.
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