The Campaign Report – 9/15/2020

A new Monmouth poll in Florida finds Joe Biden leading Donald Trump in the presidential race, 50% to 45% among registered voters.

Under a likely voter scenario with a somewhat higher level of turnout than in 2016, the race is unchanged at 50% for Biden and 45% for Trump.

The margin narrows slightly to 49% Biden and 46% Trump when using a likely voter model with lower turnout.

A new Florida Atlantic University poll in Florida finds Joe Biden and Donald Trump in a dead heat, 50% to 50%. I find that a little suspicious. No undecideds? No third party? “About 9% of voters said there is a chance they will change their mind while the other 91% said they will definitely stick with their choice. 97% of Trump voters and 94% of Biden voters say they will not change their minds.”

And we have two new CNN polls of likely voters in North Carolina and Wisconsin. In North Carolina, Biden leads by 3, 49% to 46%. In Wisconsin, Biden leads by 10, 52% to 42%.

The most interesting finding in the new CNN poll in Wisconsin: When likely voters were asked whether they approve of the candidates’ handling of the “situation in Kenosha,” President Trump is underwater at 42% to 54% (-12), while Joe Biden is at 48% to 42% (+6).

NBCLX/YouGov poll finds that 65% of Democrats who say they plan to vote by mail expect to send their ballots off at least a month before Election Day, compared to just 49% of independents and 40% of Republicans who responded the same way.

Just 8% of Democrats who said they’ll vote by mail plan to wait until the last week before Nov. 3 to cast their ballots, compared to 14% of independents and 18% of Republicans.

Scientific American made its first-ever presidential endorsement: “Scientific American has never endorsed a presidential candidate in its 175-year history. This year we are compelled to do so. We do not do this lightly.

The evidence and the science show that Donald Trump has badly damaged the U.S. and its people—because he rejects evidence and science. The most devastating example is his dishonest and inept response to the COVID-19 pandemic, which cost more than 190,000 Americans their lives by the middle of September. He has also attacked environmental protections, medical care, and the researchers and public science agencies that help this country prepare for its greatest challenges. That is why we urge you to vote for Joe Biden, who is offering fact-based plans to protect our health, our economy and the environment. These and other proposals he has put forth can set the country back on course for a safer, more prosperous and more equitable future.”

CBS News: “Joe Biden’s economic proposals would create a faster growing economy, higher wages for American workers and reduce the debt compared to where the U.S. is headed under President Trump, according to new analysis from the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School.”

Axios: “To his diehard supporters, Trump isn’t just a candidate. He’s a lifestyle choice and a vehicle for self-expression — a way to continually flip the middle finger at big media, big business, big government … anything big.”

“It’s all part of one of the big Trump triumphs — convincing his voters that an attack on him is actually an attack on them.”

“A quiet change to Alaska’s 2020 general election ballot has drawn the ire of the Alaska Democratic Party, which says the move is biased, lacks transparency and was disclosed days before ballots are mailed to overseas voters,” the Anchorage Daily News reports.

“Candidates no longer have their party registrations listed on the ballot. Instead, they’re only listed as the nominee of a particular party or as having entered a race through the petition process.”

“The change primarily affects Al Gross, running for U.S. Senate against incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan, and Alyse Galvin, running for U.S. House against longtime Republican incumbent Don Young. Both have made being independent of a major party a central part of their campaigns.”

Biden campaign manager Jen O’Malley Dillion forcefully defended the Democratic nominee’s pandemic-altered campaign activities, asserting Tuesday that “people will die” because of rallies held by President Trump that shirk safety precautions aimed at preventing transmission of the novel coronavirus, Politico reports.

New York Times: “Nevada’s Democratic political machine was held up as a model for other states where neither party has consistently dominated. But it was a machine built for another era.”

“Its success relied on hundreds of people knocking on thousands of doors for face-to-face conversations with voters. Now, there are fewer than half as many people canvassing for Democratic voters as there were in September 2016. And some Democratic strategists warn that Nevada could be in 2020 what Wisconsin was in 2016 — a state that the Democrats assume is safely in their column but that slips away.”

Politico: “The most important states in the 2016 election are among the least likely states to count their votes and declare a winner on election night this year. Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are expecting huge surges in ballots cast by mail in 2020, like most states preparing to vote during the coronavirus pandemic. But all three Midwestern battlegrounds, which President Donald Trump flipped in 2016 to win the White House after years of Democratic presidential victories there, are among the states where local election officials are not allowed to start processing mail ballots until Election Day.”

“Mail ballot processing involves everything from opening envelopes to checking voter signatures to flattening ballots that have been crumpled or creased in transit. The procedures can be time consuming, and that will create a backlog of millions of votes set to draw out the counting process for days after the polls close. That means that the country may be waiting, along with voters in the three Midwestern states, to see whether Trump or Joe Biden carried their electoral votes — and potentially the presidency.”

“Joe Biden will speak to the Senate Democratic caucus Thursday by phone,”  Politico reports. “Thursday’s conversation is expected to center around mobilizing voters in individual states and discuss helping to elect Democrats up and down the ballot. It will be the first time Biden addresses the full Democratic caucus since receiving the Democratic nomination for president.”

A digital ad released by a fundraising arm of the Trump campaign on Sept. 11 calling on people to “support our troops” uses a stock photo of Russian-made fighter jets and weapons, Politico reports.

“Republican senators facing tough re-election fights this fall are expressing support for insurance protections for people with pre-existing medical conditions, running ads at odds with their own recent votes and policy positions,” NBC News  reports.

“The latest example came Tuesday when Sen. Cory Gardner (R-CO), who has voted repeatedly to repeal the Obamacare law that established those federal protections, released an emotional ad in which he sits with his mother and discusses her successful battle with cancer.”

“Ohio voters will have to provide their own postage if they opt to return their ballots by mail this fall,” The Fulcrum reports.

“Secretary of State Frank LaRose wanted to purchase $3 million worth of stamps with federal Covid-19 relief funding to put on envelopes for the record number of absentee ballots expected this fall. But a budgetary oversight board run by his fellow Republicans rejected that proposal Monday.”

“Voters in most states have to put their own 55-cent stamp on their mail ballots. But 17 states have permanent policies to provide postage-paid envelopes to absentee voters, and another three have decided to do the same for the November presidential election.”

“Because of rules backed by New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D), concerning third parties, the Working Families Party must garner at least 130,000 votes or 2% of the total vote—whichever is higher—on its party line for the presidential election in November, or it will lose its automatic ballot line in New York,” the New York Times reports.

Delaware politics from a liberal, progressive and Democratic perspective. Keep Delaware Blue.

0 comments on “The Campaign Report – 9/15/2020

Leave a Reply

%d bloggers like this: