The Polling Report for November 1, 2018

The Cook Political Report has revised its House forecast to a Democratic gain of 30 to 40 seats. It was 25 to 35 last month and could change again before Election Day on Tuesday.

Meanwhile, FiveThirtyEight gives Democrats a 85.7% chance of taking control of the House.

US SENATE
MAINE–Emerson College—King 50—Brakey 37
INDIANA–NBC/Marist—Donnelly 48—Braun 46
INDIANA–Fox News—Donnelly 45—Braun 38
CONNECTICUT–Emerson College—Murphy 55—Corey 35
NEW JERSEY–Vox Populi Polling—Menendez 54—Hugin 46
NEVADA–CNN/SSRS—Rosen 48—Heller 45
ARIZONA–CNN/SSRS—Sinema 51—McSally 47
ARIZONA–Fox News—Sinema 46—McSally 46
MASSACHUSETTS–MassINC Polling Group—Warren 53—Diehl 31
MASSACHUSETTS–Western New England University—Warren 57—Diehl 27
WISCONSIN–Marquette Law School—Baldwin 54—Vukmir 43
TEXAS–University of Texas – Tyler—Cruz 47—O’Rourke 43
TENNESSEE–Cygnal—Blackburn 51—Bredesen 45
TENNESSEE–Fox News—Blackburn 50—Bredesen 41
CALIFORNIA–UC Berkeley—Feinsten 45–de Leon 36
FLORIDA–Ipsos—Nelson 49—Scott 44
FLORIDA–Cyngal—Nelson 50—Scott 48
MISSOURI–Fox News—McCaskill 43—Hawley 43
NORTH DAKOTA–Fox News—Cramer 51—Heitkamp 42

A new NBC News/GenForward survey of millennials ages 18 to 34 finds that just 31% of them say they will definitely vote in the November midterm elections, a number that has remained steady since August.

“The survey finds that millennials don’t feel represented by Congress, which could be a sign of election disengagement heading into November. A majority of millennials overall (63 percent) do not think that Congress represents the interests of people like them well. About a third (35 percent) think Congress represents people like them well.”

US HOUSE
NEW HAMPSHIRE 2ND–Emerson College—Kuster 52—Negron 40
NEW HAMPSHIRE 1ST–Emerson College—Pappas 48—Edwards 46
MAINE 2ND–Emerson College—Golden 47—Poliquin 46
MAINE 1ST–Emerson College—Pingree 56—Holbrook 31
NEW JERSEY 7TH–Monmouth University—Malinowski 48—Lance 43
PENNSYLVANIA 16TH–Susquehanna Polling & Research, Inc.—DiNicola 51—Kelly 47
PENNSYLVANIA 8TH–Susquehanna Polling & Research, Inc.—Cartwright 57—Chrin 40

First Read: “In the past week or so of the 2018 campaign, something definitely happened — in favor of the Democrats and at the expense of Republicans.”

“We saw it in the weekly Gallup poll, which had President Trump’s approval rating down 4 points to 40 percent; we saw it in our NBC/Marist poll of Arizona, where Democrats are doing as well on the ballot test with likely voters as registered voters, suggesting enthusiasm is on their side; and we saw it in the New York Times Upshot/Siena and Monmouth polls of key House races, which have Democrats ahead or in strong position to upset GOP incumbents.”

“Is this due to movement after the pipe-bomb scare and Pittsburgh? Is this the political environment snapping back to where it was pre-Kavanaugh? Or is it just noise and a false sense of where things truly stand? (After all, it was six days before Election Day 2016 when the polls had Hillary Clinton up 6 points in Wisconsin.)”

GOVERNOR
NEW HAMPSHIRE–Emerson College—Sununu 51—Kelly 43
MAINE–Emerson College—Mills 50—Moody 42
CONNECTICUT–Emerson College—Lamont 46—Stefanowski 39
ALASKA–Alaska Survey Research—Begich 43–Dunleavy 42
NEVADA–CNN/SSRS—Sisolak 46—Laxalt 45
ARIZONA–CNN/SSRS—Ducey 52—Garcia 45
ARIZONA–Ipsos—Ducey 57—Garcia 37
WISCONSIN–Marquette Law School—Evers 47—Walker 47
TEXAS–University of Texas – Tyler—Abbott 53—Valdez 32
TENNESSEE–Cygnal—Lee 59—Dean 36
KANSAS–Ipsos—Kelly 43—Kobach 41
MASSACHUSETTS–Western New England University—Baker 65–Gonzalez 27
CALIFORNIA–UC Berkeley—Newsom 58—Cox 40
FLORIDA–Ipsos—Gillum 50—DeSantis 44