The Polling Report for November 1, 2018

The Cook Political Report has revised its House forecast to a Democratic gain of 30 to 40 seats. It was 25 to 35 last month and could change again before Election Day on Tuesday.

Meanwhile, FiveThirtyEight gives Democrats a 85.7% chance of taking control of the House.

MAINE–Emerson CollegeKing 50Brakey 37
INDIANA–NBC/MaristDonnelly 48Braun 46
INDIANA–Fox NewsDonnelly 45Braun 38
CONNECTICUT–Emerson CollegeMurphy 55Corey 35
NEW JERSEY–Vox Populi PollingMenendez 54Hugin 46
NEVADA–CNN/SSRSRosen 48Heller 45
ARIZONA–CNN/SSRSSinema 51McSally 47
ARIZONA–Fox NewsSinema 46McSally 46
MASSACHUSETTS–MassINC Polling GroupWarren 53Diehl 31
MASSACHUSETTS–Western New England UniversityWarren 57Diehl 27
WISCONSIN–Marquette Law SchoolBaldwin 54Vukmir 43
TEXAS–University of Texas – TylerCruz 47O’Rourke 43
TENNESSEE–CygnalBlackburn 51Bredesen 45
TENNESSEE–Fox NewsBlackburn 50Bredesen 41
CALIFORNIA–UC BerkeleyFeinsten 45–de Leon 36
FLORIDA–IpsosNelson 49Scott 44
FLORIDA–CyngalNelson 50Scott 48
MISSOURI–Fox NewsMcCaskill 43Hawley 43
NORTH DAKOTA–Fox NewsCramer 51Heitkamp 42

A new NBC News/GenForward survey of millennials ages 18 to 34 finds that just 31% of them say they will definitely vote in the November midterm elections, a number that has remained steady since August.

“The survey finds that millennials don’t feel represented by Congress, which could be a sign of election disengagement heading into November. A majority of millennials overall (63 percent) do not think that Congress represents the interests of people like them well. About a third (35 percent) think Congress represents people like them well.”

NEW HAMPSHIRE 2ND–Emerson CollegeKuster 52Negron 40
NEW HAMPSHIRE 1ST–Emerson CollegePappas 48Edwards 46
MAINE 2ND–Emerson CollegeGolden 47Poliquin 46
MAINE 1ST–Emerson CollegePingree 56Holbrook 31
NEW JERSEY 7TH–Monmouth UniversityMalinowski 48Lance 43
PENNSYLVANIA 16TH–Susquehanna Polling & Research, Inc.DiNicola 51Kelly 47
PENNSYLVANIA 8TH–Susquehanna Polling & Research, Inc.Cartwright 57Chrin 40

First Read: “In the past week or so of the 2018 campaign, something definitely happened — in favor of the Democrats and at the expense of Republicans.”

“We saw it in the weekly Gallup poll, which had President Trump’s approval rating down 4 points to 40 percent; we saw it in our NBC/Marist poll of Arizona, where Democrats are doing as well on the ballot test with likely voters as registered voters, suggesting enthusiasm is on their side; and we saw it in the New York Times Upshot/Siena and Monmouth polls of key House races, which have Democrats ahead or in strong position to upset GOP incumbents.”

“Is this due to movement after the pipe-bomb scare and Pittsburgh? Is this the political environment snapping back to where it was pre-Kavanaugh? Or is it just noise and a false sense of where things truly stand? (After all, it was six days before Election Day 2016 when the polls had Hillary Clinton up 6 points in Wisconsin.)”

NEW HAMPSHIRE–Emerson CollegeSununu 51Kelly 43
MAINE–Emerson CollegeMills 50Moody 42
CONNECTICUT–Emerson CollegeLamont 46Stefanowski 39
ALASKA–Alaska Survey ResearchBegich 43–Dunleavy 42
NEVADA–CNN/SSRSSisolak 46Laxalt 45
ARIZONA–CNN/SSRSDucey 52Garcia 45
ARIZONA–IpsosDucey 57Garcia 37
WISCONSIN–Marquette Law SchoolEvers 47Walker 47
TEXAS–University of Texas – TylerAbbott 53Valdez 32
TENNESSEE–CygnalLee 59Dean 36
KANSAS–IpsosKelly 43Kobach 41
MASSACHUSETTS–Western New England UniversityBaker 65–Gonzalez 27
CALIFORNIA–UC BerkeleyNewsom 58Cox 40
FLORIDA–IpsosGillum 50DeSantis 44

Delaware politics from a liberal, progressive and Democratic perspective. Keep Delaware Blue.

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