The Trump hush-money trial resumes today. The Court was not in session on Monday. A new CNN poll published over the weekend showed that 24% of Trump’s voters would possibly abandon him if he were convicted in the hush money trial.
CNN has more on these voters: “They tend to be younger than other Trump supporters (64% are younger than 50 compared with 37% of those who would not reconsider), are less likely to be White (49% are people of color compared with 17% of those who would not reconsider), are more apt to report being Biden voters in 2020 (20% of them say they backed Biden in 2020 vs. 6% of those who would not reconsider) and are likelier to acknowledge that Biden legitimately won enough votes to win the presidency four years ago (63% vs. 22% among those who would not reconsider). They are also more apt to be political independents (49% vs. 31%) and ideologically moderate (50% vs. 38%).”
Poll after poll shows Biden weaker with young, Black and Hispanic voters. But if this poll is correct, these voters are also the most likely to abandon Trump if he’s convicted in one of his trials. It’s nonetheless insane that 76% of Trump’s voters tell pollsters they would stick with him even if he’s a convicted felon. But the poll also suggests his support is quite soft.
Most of Donald Trump opponents were initially disappointed that his “hush money” criminal trial would not be televised. New York doesn’t allow cameras or live audio in its courtrooms. Instead, the spectacle of the first American president on trial must be imagined through courtroom drawings and descriptions from reporters.
But after a couple of weeks, it’s clear the format isn’t helping Trump at all. He has only a few minutes each day before the news media to try to shape the narrative of the day’s events. Worse for Trump, daily transcripts of the trial are being made public so it’s harder for him to lie about what happened behind closed doors.
And with no television coverage of the actual trial, even his most fervent supporters apparently have no interest in traveling down the courtroom in lower Manhattan to protest the proceedings.
The number of Trump diehards actually showing up can be measured in the single digits.
The net effect of the trial has been to mostly keep Trump off the campaign trail. When you combine this with the fact that Trump has no control of his days, it makes him look extraordinarily weak. It turns out campaigning from the courthouse — as Trump had hoped to do — wasn’t a great plan.
“Nearly seven months after the Israel-Hamas war began, the demonstrations convulsing college campuses nationwide are exposing fresh tensions within the Democratic Party over how to balance free speech protections and support for Gazans with concerns that some Jewish Americans are raising about antisemitism,” the New York Times reports.
“From New York and Los Angeles to Atlanta and Austin, a surge in student activism has manifested in protest encampments and other demonstrations, drawing significant police crackdowns and sometimes appearing to attract outside agitators. The protests also have emerged as the latest flashpoint in the internal Democratic debate over the war.”
“As scenes of campus turmoil play out across the country in the final days of the school year, the moment also carries political risk for a party that has harnessed promises of stability and normalcy to win critical recent elections, and faces a challenging battle for control of the government in the fall.”
Green Party presidential candidate Jill Stein was among scores of protesters arrested Saturday at Washington University in St. Louis, USA Today reports.
“Donald Trump and other prominent Republicans are seizing on the eruption of campus protests across the country to depict the United States as out of control under President Biden, seeking to use the mostly peaceful demonstrations as a political cudgel against the Democrats,” the Washington Post reports.
“Beyond the disruption to campus life, top Republicans have highlighted the antisemitic chants that have occurred at some of the protests. The issue is complicated by a debate over what constitutes antisemitism — and when criticism of Israel crosses that line — while some student organizers have denounced the chants or said they are coming from outside activists.”
New York Times: “With pro-Palestinian protests spreading across campuses nationwide, university leaders have had to confront a central question: When does a demonstration cross the line?”
NBC News: Hundreds of pro-Palestinian protesters arrested at campuses as colleges crack down on encampments.
“Israeli officials increasingly believe that the International Criminal Court is preparing to issue arrest warrants for senior government officials on charges related to the conflict with Hamas,“ the Wall Street Journal reports.
“The Israeli and foreign officials also believe the court is weighing arrest warrants for leaders from Hamas.”
Politico: Biden keeps up pressure on Netanyahu as possible Rafah invasion looms.
“The scale of the abnormality is so staggering, that it can actually become numbing. It’s all too easy to fall into reflexive habits, to treat this as a normal campaign, where both sides embrace the rule of law, where both sides are dedicated to a debate based on facts and the peaceful transfer of power. But, that is not what’s happening this election year.”— George Stephanopoulos, opening This Week on ABC News.
Steve Vladeck: “I’m worried because there appear to be five or more justices who think that they have an obligation to do more than is required in the instant case—apparently without regard for the very real institutional and political costs such a move could (and, I fear, would) incur.”
Politico: Trump immunity fight turns Supreme Court textualists topsy-turvy
Marty Lederman: A few preliminary reactions to the oral argument in Trump v. United States
Chris Geidner reports on an unusual case where the Republican attorney general of Oklahoma can’t convince a state court to throw out a death row inmate’s conviction, despite admitted prosecutorial misconduct, so is now seeking relief from the Supreme Court.
With all the other news last week, you may have missed the withering treatment Donald Trump received from the federal judge in the E. Jean Carroll defamation case.
U.S. District Judge Lewis Kaplan rejected Trump’s motion for a new trial and upheld the $83 million damages award in Carroll’s favor. In doing so, the judge raked Trump over the coals for his ongoing defamation of Carroll, his repeated instances of defamation, and his demeanor during the trial.
The full opinion is here.
The judge rejected Trump’s use of comparable cases to argue that the compensatory damages awarded Carroll were excessive: “None of these prior examples involved publication of defamations as widespread and destructive as Mr. Trump’s defamation of Ms. Carroll, and none involved a publisher of defamation who was a president of the United States or anyone nearly as high-profile.”
But it was Trump’ conduct in court that drew the most ire from the judge. In finding that the punitive damages awarded Carroll were appropriate, the judge wrote:
But beyond his out-of-court statements disparaging Ms. Carroll during trial — many of which were introduced in evidence — the jury could have found that Mr. Trump’s demeanor and conduct in the courtroom itself put his hatred and disdain on full display. Mr. Trump could be heard repeatedly complaining to his counsel about the proceedings, so much so that plaintiff’s counsel twice requested that the Court instruct him to stop. In particular, during Ms. Carroll’s testimony, the jury could have found, Mr. Trump could be heard making audible comments that Ms. Carroll’s testimony was false, that the proceedings were a “witch hunt” and a “con job,” and most notably, that his earlier statements disparaging Ms. Carroll were “true.” And, most dramatically, mere minutes after plaintiff’s counsel began her closing argument, Mr. Trump conspicuously stood and walked out of the courtroom for no apparent reason save to evidence his disapproval, though he was present again when Court resumed later that morning and remained for his own counsel’s entire summation.
This case will be wending its way through appeals for a while, so don’t expect Carroll to begin collecting on her judgment any time soon.
“Senate and House negotiators released the long-awaited FAA reauthorization bill just after midnight with the first procedural vote expected in the Senate on Wednesday,” Punchbowl News reports.
“This will kick off a mad scramble as senators plot ways to use the bill to jam the House on long-stalled bipartisan measures that are unrelated to the FAA bill itself.”
Eric Trump defended his father’s stamina, in a Sunday interview, even as the former president remains stuck in a New York courtroom instead of on the campaign trail, The Hill reports.
Said Trump: “He will be in trial all day long … only to step out and go to events at bodegas and wake up and speak to union workers and go to Michigan and go to Pennsylvania and go to Ohio and go to all the other swing states.”
He added: “The guy is really a remarkable human being, and I love him to death, and I’m proud of him. And I think the whole world knows his backbone and his toughness, and it’s exactly who we need behind the Resolute Desk in Washington, D.C. It’s the exact person we need in the Oval Office.”
“Amid waves of backlash from both sides of the aisle, South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem on Sunday defended her decision to shoot and kill her 14-month-old puppy named Cricket years ago,” Politico reports.
Said Noem: “The fact is, South Dakota law states that dogs who attack and kill livestock can be put down. Given that Cricket had shown aggressive behavior toward people by biting them, I decided what I did.”
“Economic advisers in Donald Trump’s orbit are clashing over their favored policy ideas, a fight that is spilling into public view as they jockey for influence over the presumptive Republican presidential nominee’s second-term plans,” Bloomberg reports.
“In recent weeks, informal advisers have floated ideas such as penalties for countries that shift away from the US dollar; a proposal for a flat tax and reforms to the Federal Reserve to give the president more control over the independent central bank.”
Most House Republicans believe that Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA), who has threatened to oust Speaker Mike Johnson, is backing off her threat, Politico reports.
A Greene aide called that “absurd,” while adding: “Anyone who is saying she is backing down is high, drunk, or simply out of their mind.”
Punchbowl News: “The House is scheduled to be in session for four straight weeks, the start of a lengthy May-June-July run for members. Of course, the calendar can change depending on political developments. There’s already chatter about this happening if House Republican leaders don’t have anything to vote on.”
“Japan’s ruling party lost a special election Prime Minister Fumio Kishida had described in part as a judgment on himself, months ahead of a party leadership vote,” Bloomberg reports.
“Public anger over a slush fund scandal helped the main opposition candidate Akiko Kamei defeat the Liberal Democratic Party’s Norimasa Nishikori by about 83,000 votes to 58,000 in what had been a party stronghold in Shimane prefecture.”
“Rishi Sunak has spent 18 months as prime minister fending off internal Conservative Party criticism and rumors of plots to oust him. So far it’s come to nothing — though his team is taking nothing for granted this week,” Bloomberg reports.
“His critics on the Tory right have spent months gearing up for Thursday’s local and mayoral elections across England as their final chance to oust Sunak. If the party suffers a bad result — it trails Keir Starmer’s Labour by about 20 points in polls — they will use it to try to persuade colleagues that only a change of leader can prevent a wipe out in the UK-wide vote expected in the autumn.”
“Household wealth for those under 40 in the U.S. is up 49% from its pre-pandemic level, according to a new analysis from the left-leaning Center for American Progress,” Axios reports.
“Young households haven’t seen wealth growth like this since the Federal Reserve first started tracking this data in 1989.”
“At least four of the seven swing states expected to decide the 2024 presidential election have active criminal cases against pro-Trump fake electors,” Axios reports.
Minnesota state Sen. Nicole Mitchell (D), who was arrested in an alleged burglary this month, will be relieved of her committee work and removed from DFL caucus meetings while her case is under review in the courts, the Minneapolis Star Tribune reports.
Lura Yuen: The bizarre and relatable case of Minnesota state Sen. Nicole Mitchell.
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