Within hours of Donald Trump announcing his “leave it to the states” abortion position, Joe Biden had already shot a direct-to-camera response video.
The Biden campaign then released an ad featuring a Texas woman who nearly died because she was denied abortion care with the tagline: “Donald Trump did this.”
When the Arizona Supreme Court reinstated a 160-year old abortion ban last week, the Biden campaign was ready with a plan to blanket the key swing state with abortion-specific ads.
This week Biden is barnstorming Pennsylvania to contrast his economic message with Donald Trump’s.
It’s evidence that Biden is already running a very agile and efficient campaign.
Dan Pfeiffer observes: “The Biden operation has been on non-stop offense. Since the State of the Union, the President remains omnipresent in the battleground states. His messaging is strategically designed to shore up the President’s coalition; and he is currently in the midst of a three-day tour of Pennsylvania to talk about the economy. Since the State of the Union, the President made major announcements on climate change, student loan debt cancellation, gun safety reform and prescription drug costs. All of these issues are critical to the struggling segments of his coalition. The Biden campaign continues to draw contrasts with Trump at every opportunity, launching new ads and videos on a near daily basis to define Trump and his agenda.”
Meanwhile, Trump’s campaign has barely been heard from since Nikki Haley dropped out of the Republican presidential primary. He’s rarely campaigned and has no ads of any consequence on the air.
Instead, Trump seems to be mostly stuck in a courtroom or playing golf.
We’ve obviously got many months to go, but the Biden campaign is already executing what seems to be a very clear strategy to win re-election.
More from Pfeiffer: “Time is a non-renewable resource. You can always raise more money, hire more people or run more ads. But every day that passes without making progress is a day gone. Every day that Biden has a presence in those key states and Trump doesn’t is a win for Biden.”
POLLING.
- NATIONAL–U.S. PRESIDENT–Economist/YouGov–Biden 44–Trump 44
- WISCONSIN–U.S. SENATOR–Marquette University Law School–Tammy Baldwin (D-inc): 50, Eric Hovde (R): 50
- WISCONSIN–U.S. PRESIDENT–Marquette University Law School–Trump 51–Biden 49
- TEXAS–U.S. SENATOR–Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation–Ted Cruz (R-inc): 46, Colin Allred (D): 41, Ted Brown (L): 4
- TEXAS–U.S. PRESIDENT–Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation–Trump 48, Biden 36
VIRGINIA GOVERNOR. Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger publicized an endorsement on Tuesday from Clean Virginia, a prominent environmental group that the Richmond Times-Dispatch says spent almost $12 million in last year’s legislative races.
That effort included several 2023 Democratic primaries where Clean Virginia’s candidates opposed contenders supported by Dominion Energy. Clean Virginia helped Lashrecse Aird deny renomination to Dominion’s ally, conservative state Sen. Joe Morrissey, while it was on the winning side against two other upper chamber candidates backed by the mammoth energy producer. Dominion, though, successfully defended two Democratic state senators against Clean Virginia-supported challengers.
Spanberger faces Richmond Mayor Levar Stoney in next year’s Democratic nomination contest to replace GOP Gov. Glenn Youngkin, who is barred from seeking a second consecutive term. Spanberger ended 2023 with a wide $3.6 million to $758,000 cash on hand advantage, but since fundraising reports covering the first six months of the year won’t be available until July 15, we’ll need to wait a while for updated numbers.
INDIANA GOVERNOR. Campaign finance reports are in for the first quarter of the year, and the Indianapolis Star’s Kayla Dwyer has collected the numbers from all the notable Republicans competing in the May 7 primary for governor:
- Businessman Eric Doden: $4.4 million raised, $251,000 cash on hand
- Sen. Mike Braun: $2.9 million raised, $946,000 cash on hand
- Former state Commerce Secretary Brad Chambers: $1.5 million raised, additional $3 million self-funded, $761,000 cash on hand
- Lt. Gov. Suzanne Crouch: $1.4 million raised, $3.1 million cash on hand
- Former Attorney General Curtis Hill: $201,000 raised, $34,000 cash on hand
Dwyer notes that Doden received $3 million in donations and loans from his parents, which represents most of the money he brought in. Braun, for his part, took in $1 million from Richard Uihlein, who is one of the most prolific conservative megadonors in the country.
MISSOURI GOVERNOR. The Missouri Scout has rounded up campaign fundraising reports covering the first quarter of the year, and the overall story of the Aug. 6 Republican primary for governor remains the same as it’s been throughout the entire cycle. Lt. Gov. Mike Kehoe continues to dominate financially even though almost every released survey shows him trailing Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft by double digits. State Sen. Bill Eigel also brought in more money during the quarter than Ashcroft even those polls show him with little support.
Kehoe and his joint fundraising committee this time raised a combined $2.5 million and ended March with a total of $6.3 million. Eigel and his committee outraised Ashcroft and his allies $587,000 to $513,000, though it was Ashcroft’s side that finished the quarter with a $2.6 million to $1.7 million cash on hand advantage.
On the Democratic side, state House Minority Leader Crystal Quade and her committee together raised $285,000 and had $391,000 available. Businessman Mike Hamra and his allies together brought in $690,000, which includes $250,000 from the candidate, and ended March with $1.1 million banked.
NEW JERSEY U.S. SENATOR. A three-judge federal appeals panel has upheld a ruling by a lower court last month that barred the use of New Jersey’s “county line” system on the grounds that it violates the Constitution. However, that ruling remains in effect solely for the Democratic primary. Barring further legal action, Republicans will still be able to print ballots that give favorable placement to party-endorsed candidates. That state of affairs is likely temporary, though, as a similar ruling applying to Republican primaries is likely at some point.
A state court judge ruled on Monday that election officials in New Jersey could continue to print ballots for the Republican primary that award special placement to party-endorsed candidates, saying it was “too late” to change course. Previously, a federal judge forbade Democrats from using ballots organized in this way and instead said candidates had to be grouped by the office they’re seeking.
However, even though that federal court ruling applied only to Democratic primaries, Superior Court Judge John Harrington suggested that Republicans should have followed suit in eliminating the so-called “county line.” The federal case is currently being appealed, and it’s possible that the 3rd U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals could extend the lower court’s ruling to include the GOP.
NEVADA U.S. SENATOR. Former diplomat Jeff Gunter is airing his first TV ad against Army veteran Sam Brown ahead of the June 11 Republican primary, though it’s anyone’s guess how much he’s actually spending to get it on the air. Gunter said two weeks ago he’d be deploying a total of $3.3 million on ads for the rest of the contest, but as of Friday, AdImpact reported he’d booked only $654,000.
The new spot accuses Brown of being aided by “dirty cash from Mitch McConnell, the swamp king himself.” Brown is the NRSC’s endorsed candidate to take on Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen.
MARYLAND U.S. SENATOR. A new survey for OpinionWorks shows former Republican Gov. Larry Hogan leading his two prospective Democratic foes, Rep. David Trone and Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks, 53-40 and 54-36, respectively. The poll, which was conducted for The Baltimore Sun, FOX45, and the University of Baltimore, did not include presidential numbers in Tuesday’s release.
A pair of March polls from Braun Research conducted for two different sets of clients also showed Hogan ahead in general election matchups, though they disagreed just how well he was doing in this dark blue state.
The early March numbers for the Washington Post and the University of Maryland placed the Republican ahead of Trone and Alsobrooks by margins of 49-37 and 50-36, which is similar to what OpinionWorks now finds. But a survey conducted later in the month for Goucher College and the Baltimore Banner showed Hogan edging out Trone just 43-42 and leading Alsobrooks by an only slightly larger 44-40 spread.
OpinionWorks also looks at both parties’ May 14 primaries. On the Democratic side, Trone enjoys a 48-29 edge over Alsobrooks, which is larger than what other recent polls have shown. The firm also gives us a rare glance at the GOP side, where Hogan is crushing wealthy perennial candidate Robin Ficker 69-9.
MONTANA U.S. SENATOR. In a follow-up to her absolutely bonkers report about former Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy last week, the Washington Post’s Liz Goodwin pokes further holes in the Republican’s claims about an alleged bullet wound he suffered.
Sheehy claims he lied about getting shot at a national park in 2015 in order to deter a military investigation into what he says was the true source of his injury—a possible incident of friendly fire in Afghanistan three years earlier—but new documents obtained by the Post include a report from an unnamed person visiting the park who reported “an accidental gun discharge” to the National Park Service.
An attorney for Sheehy disputed whether there had in fact been any such report by a park visitor. Sheehy’s campaign previously said it was seeking to obtain copies of his hospital records from the 2015 incident, but the same attorney did not directly respond when asked whether those records had been received.
“Republican Senate candidate Tim Sheehy apologized and asked for leniency in 2015 after he said a gun he kept in his vehicle for bear protection fell and discharged, striking him in his right forearm in Glacier National Park, according to new National Park Service documents released through a Freedom of Information Act request,” the Washington Post reports.
“The new documents, which provide additional detail about an incident first reported by The Washington Post this month, include a detailed written statement from Sheehy to a law enforcement officer regarding Sheehy having accidentally shot himself on Oct. 18, 2015 — an account that he now says was a lie.”
UTAH U.S. SENATOR. The Utah GOP’s April 27 convention is coming up quickly, and a newly formed super PAC is trying to make sure Riverton Mayor Trent Staggs’ campaign to succeed retiring Sen. Mitt Romney comes to an end at the event well before the June 25 primary.
The Deseret News’ Brigham Tomco reports that Hometown Freedom Action Network has spent $17,000 on mailers and text messages to delegates portraying Staggs, who has emphasized his hard-right stances, as disloyal to conservatives. One message faults the mayor for initially supporting Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis for president, declaring, “Betraying Trump is not MAGA.” Another blasts Staggs as “woke” for instituting anti-bias training for police officers. It’s not clear who is funding the group.
One delegate told Tomco he considers these kinds of attacks from outside groups “frustrating, annoying, and inappropriate.” Staggs is hoping others agree because he needs to perform well with delegates if he’s to keep his campaign going.
Utah allows candidates to reach the primary ballot by competing at their convention or by collecting signatures, and while candidates can pursue both routes, Staggs is only going with the first option. This means that, should he fail to win the support of at least 40% of the delegates on April 27, his campaign is over. Another hard-right candidate, conservative activist Carolyn Phippen, is also pursuing a convention-only strategy.
It’s not clear yet, however, if a third candidate, attorney Brent Orrin Hatch, needs to rely on delegates to get onto the ballot. Hatch, who is the son and namesake of the late Sen. Orrin Hatch, submitted signatures ahead of the April 13 deadline, but election authorities have not yet verified if he turned in the requisite 28,000 valid petitions.
Hatch himself also sounded uncertain if he’d hit this goal at the start of the month. He previously told Tomco the task was “daunting,” and that his status was “up in the air.”
The convention is far less important for two other Republicans, Rep. John Curtis and former state House Speaker Brad Wilson. Election authorities have verified that each of them turned in enough signatures to make the ballot, though they’re each still taking part in the convention.
Hometown Freedom Action Network sent out texts blasting Curtis, who appears to be the least doctrinaire of the candidates, as someone who was “never with President Trump, and never will be.” However, it only spent $2,500 on this messaging against the congressman, who will be on the June ballot no matter how well he does at the April 27 gathering.
ARIZONA U.S. SENATOR. Arizona U.S. Senate candidate Kari Lake (R) seemed to downplay Arizona’s recently upheld strict 1864 abortion ban by telling people “you can go three hours that way, three hours that way, and you’re going to be able to have an abortion,” USA Today reports.
She added: “Everyone’s fighting about a law that’s not even going to be enforced here in Arizona.”
Washington Post: Inside the GOP reckoning over Arizona’s 1864 abortion ban.
Lake urged supporters in Arizona to “strap on a Glock” pistol as they prepare for what she called an intense six months leading up to the Nov. 5 elections, Reuters reports. Said Lake: “We are going to put on the armor of God. Then maybe strap on a Glock.”
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: “The two new developments that pushed us to make these changes are the increased importance of abortion rights in the state following a blockbuster state court decision last week as well as recent Democratic fundraising strength in both races.”
PENNSYLVANIA U.S. SENATOR. “Dave McCormick (R) put more than $14 million of his own money into his failed 2022 Senate campaign,” the Daily Beast reports.
“But as he mounts a 2024 comeback, new disclosures this week reveal that, despite his enormous personal investment, his 2022 campaign still overspent money that his donors had contributed—in violation of federal law.”
CALIFORNIA U.S. SENATOR. “Steve Garvey, the Republican Senate candidate in California, struggled to pay his taxes following his Major League Baseball career while serving as an entrepreneur and pitchman for alternative health remedies,” Politico reports.
“Garvey and his businesses were named in more than 40 tax liens, federal and state, totaling about $3.85 million over the last four decades.”
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