“Republicans are waking up to the reality that Robert F. Kennedy Jr. could sink their standard-bearer just as easily as he could hurt President Joe Biden, after a pair of new polls showed the presence of third-party candidates on the ballot might not necessarily benefit former President Donald Trump,” Politico reports.
“Even Trump is acknowledging his potential problem.”
Said Trump: “They say he hurts Biden. I’m not sure that that’s true, and I think he probably hurts us both. But he might hurt Biden a little bit more, you don’t know.”
POLLING.
- FLORIDA U.S. SENATOR. Mainstreet Research for Florida Atlantic University: Rick Scott (R-inc): 53, Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D): 36
- FLORIDA U.S. PRESIDENT. Mainstreet Research for Florida Atlantic University: Trump 51, Biden 43
- NORTH CAROLINA GOVERNOR. Meredith College: Josh Stein (D): 45, Mark Robinson (R): 36
- NORTH CAROLINA U.S. PRESIDENT. Meredith College: Trump 41, Biden 39
CBS News Poll: “Just 10% of Americans who say climate change is a very important issue have heard or read a lot about what the Biden administration has done so far to deal with it. And when evaluating the Biden administration, many think it has done too little to address it.”
“Third-party and independent candidates like Robert F. Kennedy Jr. are making an unusually strong showing in early polls of this fall’s presidential race – a finding that not only highlights a strain of dissatisfaction with Joe Biden and Donald Trump but also adds further uncertainty to what is shaping up to be a close contest between them,” CNN reports.
“Across five national polls released in March and April – from Quinnipiac University, Fox News, Marquette Law School, NBC News and Marist College – Kennedy received an average of 13% support for his independent presidential bid when his name was explicitly included in the survey question, with independent candidate Cornel West and Green Party candidate Jill Stein taking an average of 3% each. Given the narrow margin between Trump and Biden, who are effectively deadlocked in many surveys, even a fraction of that support could prove crucial to the election’s outcome.”
“Historical precedent, however, suggests that third-party and independent candidates’ election performances rarely live up to their polling.”
TEXAS 23RD DISTRICT. “Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-TX) is making more enemies ahead of his primary runoff next month against conservative social media influencer Brandon Herrera,” Punchbowl News reports.
“Hardline House GOP conservatives tell us they’re feeling a renewed sense of motivation to go after Gonzales after he called out Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) and House Freedom Caucus Chair Bob Good (R-VA) on CNN this weekend. Gonzales referred to the two men as ‘scumbags’ and bashed Good in particular for supporting Herrera, who he called a ‘neo-Nazi.’”
NEW HAMPSHIRE 2ND DISTRICT. Former Keene Mayor George Hansel, who had been considering another bid for Congress, said on Monday that he would not seek New Hampshire’s open 2nd District and would instead support businessman Vikram Mansharamani for the Republican nod.
Hansel sought to challenge Democratic Rep. Annie Kuster in 2022, but Democrats spent more than half a million dollars to derail him in the GOP primary by running ads that boosted a more extreme candidate, former Hillsborough County Treasurer Robert Burns. Despite raising very little himself, Burns wound up winning the nomination by a 33-30 margin, and national Republican groups thereafter made no serious effort to oust Kuster.
MINNESOTA 2ND DISTRICT. Former federal prosecutor Joe Teirab announced Monday that he would continue on to the Aug. 13 Republican primary even if he loses Saturday’s party convention to attorney Tayler Rahm. Both candidates previously pledged to drop out if delegates backed the other’s effort against Democratic Rep. Angie Craig, but Teirab told supporters he’d changed his mind because he felt Rahm was too flawed to beat the incumbent.
Teirab cited his opponent’s weak fundraising as well as a recent Fox News story reporting that Rahm’s law firm had recently changed its website to remove mentions of the type of clients it had defended in the past. Rahm, for his part, used Teirab’s reversal to argue to delegates that he’s the only candidate “who is committed to honesty and integrity.”
While securing party backing at a convention in Minnesota doesn’t have any direct bearing on ballot access for the primary (as is the case in several other states), candidates often pledge to, in local parlance, “abide” by the endorsement and end their campaigns if someone else wins.
These endorsements are often especially potent on the GOP side. In a 2022 piece, the Star Tribune’s Jessie Van Berkel noted that “Republicans have historically stuck with their party’s pick” in primaries. Party leaders also have reason to prefer matters get settled early.
“A primary challenge, regardless of outcome, will weaken our chances to beat Craig,” 2nd District GOP chair Joseph Ditto told the Star Tribune after Teirab revised his plans. Ditto added the party needs to begin making its case against the congresswoman “on April 28, not Aug. 14.”
However, as Teirab’s move demonstrates, not everyone likes to put their fate in the hands of a relatively small group of delegates, especially when they’re the only candidate with the money to advertise to a broader primary electorate. That’s the case in this race, as Teirab outraised Rahm $533,000 to $64,000 during the opening quarter of 2024 and finished March with a huge $662,000 to $60,000 cash advantage.
Both their hauls, however, are still drafted by what Craig brought in. The incumbent raised $1 million during the same period, and she ended last month with $2.8 million in the bank. The 2nd District, which is based in the southern Twin Cities suburbs, favored Joe Biden 53-45 in 2020.
INDIANA 6TH DISTRICT. State Rep. Mike Speedy’s new ad for the May 7 GOP primary aims to punish businessman Jefferson Shreve for trying to pass himself off as a centrist during his unsuccessful campaign for mayor of Indianapolis last year.
“I’m a moderate Republican,” Shreve is shown saying. The narrator goes on to argue that Shreve is anti-gun, opposes the state’s anti-abortion laws, and won’t support Donald Trump. The rest of the ad extols Speedy as an ardent pro-Trump conservative.
Shreve and Speedy are facing off in an expensive seven-way primary to replace fellow Republican Greg Pence in a dark red seat that includes several of Indianapolis’ southern and eastern Indianapolis suburbs as well as part of east-central Indiana. Indianapolis, which is consolidated with the rest of Marion County, forms 30% of the 6th District, so most voters didn’t have the chance to cast ballots for (or against) Shreve last year.
That’s just as well, as Shreve lost to Democratic Mayor Joe Hogsett 60-40 after throwing down $13.5 million of his personal fortune. Shreve isn’t deterred, though, as he pumped another $4.5 million into his new effort during the first quarter of the year while taking in all of $500 from donors. (No major candidates were running before Pence announced his retirement in January.)
Speedy, who is also writing checks to cover the vast majority of his campaign, injected $1.3 million during that same period. A third self-funder, businessman Jamison Carrier, meanwhile, deployed $750,000 of his own money, though he also took in another $104,000 from donors.
The other candidates have struggled to keep up with this financial onslaught. State Sen. Jeff Raatz raised all of $83,000 during the opening quarter of the year, and the additional $5,000 he loaned himself didn’t do much to augment his war chest. The remaining three contenders brought in even less.
NEW YORK 16TH DISTRICT. Rep. Jamaal Bowman has gone up on the airwaves about two weeks after his Democratic primary challenger, Westchester County Executive George Latimer, with a large buy that Politico says is in the seven figures.
In Bowman’s initial spot, supporters complain that Latimer has received support from Republican donors, though he’s not mentioned by name except in on-screen text showing a truncated Daily News headline. Most of the rest of the ad is narrated by Bowman himself, who says, “Together we’re making progress” in “investing in our schools” and “reducing gun violence.”
He then lambastes “career politicians who don’t give a damn” (Latimer first won elective office in 1987) before concluding, “Our work is for the people and we’re just getting started.”
WISCONSIN 1ST DISTRICT. Former Rep. Peter Barca, who launched a challenge to GOP Rep. Bryan Steil late last week, unveiled a long list of endorsements from prominent Wisconsin Democrats on Monday. The roster included two would-be colleagues, Rep. Mark Pocan and Gwen Moore; state Attorney General Josh Kaul; and two former governors, Jim Doyle and Martin Schreiber.
Barca also secured the backing of one potential rival, Delavan Mayor Ryan Schroeder, who had expressed interest in a bid last summer. Pocan himself floated several possible names last year, three of whom have likewise decided to get behind Barca: Racine Mayor Cory Mason, state Sen. Mark Spreitzer, and state Rep. Tip McGuire.
WISCONSIN 8TH DISTRICT. Saturday was Wisconsin Republican Mike Gallagher’s last day as a member of the House, meaning that the GOP caucus is now down to 217 members. Democrats, meanwhile, hold 213 seats, though that number should increase by one next week when a special election is held in upstate New York’s solidly blue 26th District.
Republicans won’t start adding back members until May 21, when an all-GOP runoff will be held in the special election for California’s vacant 20th District, the seat previously held by former Speaker Kevin McCarthy. More specials will follow in two other red districts, in Ohio’s 6th on June 11 and Colorado’s 4th on June 25.
But there won’t be a special election to replace Gallagher in the 8th District until November. The congressman scheduled his resignation to take place shortly after April 9, which was the last day state law would have permitted an earlier election to take place.
Many Republicans were infuriated by Gallagher’s timing. Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene even told Fox, “Speaker Johnson should be forcing Mike Gallagher to leave early so that his district can hold a special election, and any strong Republican speaker of the house would expel a member for leaving our razor-thin majority in such a delicate, delicate state.” Gallagher was not expelled.
A trio of notable Republicans are running to succeed Gallagher, including state Sen. Andre Jacque, former state Sen. Roger Roth, and Donald Trump-endorsed businessman Tony Wied. OB-GYN Kristin Lyerly is seeking the Democratic nod, but she faces difficult odds in a northeast Wisconsin constituency that Trump carried by a 57-41 margin in 2020.
MICHIGAN 6TH DISTRICT. Democratic Rep. Debbie Dingell, who was hospitalized on Saturday, said she returned home on Monday after being treated for ulcers.
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