The Political Report – August 25, 2023

A new USA Today/Suffolk University poll finds Donald Trump leading the Republican presidential race with 58%, followed by Ron DeSantis at 12% and Nikki Haley at 11%.

None of the other Republican candidates scored higher than 3% in the new poll, all of them losing modest ground since June.

 “I was very honored, there’s a man, Viktor Orbán. He’s the leader of Turkey.”— Donald Trump, at a campaign rally, referring to the Hungarian leader as the leader of Turkey.

Playbook: “A little-noticed slide in a polling presentation recently released by No Labels has sent panic through the ranks of top Democrats.”

“The data in the offending slide suggests that No Labels’ best shot at influencing the general election is by fielding a Republican at the top of its ticket and focusing their efforts on the eight likely swing states: Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.”

“According to their polling, under this scenario the only clear shot for a Biden win in those eight states would be in Pennsylvania.”

Third Way has more analysis.

Donald Trump told his supporters that they didn’t need to worry about voting next year because he had a lock on the presidential election.  He added: “You don’t have to vote, don’t worry about voting. The voting, we got plenty of votes.”  Um, Ok.  Yes, Trumpers, don’t vote. 

Rep. Dean Phillips (D-MN) “is preparing to formally announce a long- shot Democratic primary challenge to President Biden, offering himself as a next-generation alternative to the 80-year-old president,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

“The 54-year-old Phillips, after months of encouraging fellow Democrats to challenge Biden, has told people in his home state that he plans to announce his presidential campaign Friday in Concord, N.H.”

 “The wait to replace indicted Rep. George Santos has lasted longer than his rivals expected,” Politico reports.

“Both Democratic and Republican candidates have been using that time to lay the groundwork for his ouster.”

“Long Island political leaders are preparing for the possibility of a special election to succeed Santos amid his legal woes. The Republican congressman is due in court Friday to answer still more criminal fraud charges.”

Sen. Tim Scott “is moving nearly all of his resources to Iowa in a bid to reenergize his faltering presidential campaign,” Politico reports.

“The announcement — the first major reset of Scott’s campaign — comes with Scott polling at just under 2 percent nationally in the Republican primary, and as some prominent Republican allies express disappointment in the trajectory of his presidential bid. While Scott on Monday told reporters he was confident he would appear on the Nov. 8 debate stage, his campaign has yet to announce meeting the Republican National Committee’s 70,000 donor requirement to do so.”

“Chris Christie’s campaign says he has met the criteria for the third Republican primary debate, securing a spot next month on what’s expected to be a winnowed stage of candidates,” Politico reports.

“Donald Trump on Monday will formally file for the New Hampshire presidential primary ahead of a campaign rally in Derry,” the AP reports.

“It will be Trump’s second trip to the secretary of state’s office. Eight years ago, he signed up for the 2016 contest on the first day of the filing period, then sent Vice President Mike Pence to file his paperwork for the 2020 primary. He won both primaries but lost the state in the general election.”

The Messenger: “When former President Donald Trump pays the $1,000 fee on Monday to add his name to the ballot for New Hampshire’s primary, he’ll do it with the backing of a campaign machine dwarfing that of any other candidate.”

Vanity Fair: “In 2020, seven states were decided by less than 3% of the vote, and the margins in battleground states this time around are likely to be nearly as thin. The number of ballots cast for a third-party candidate doesn’t need to be large to do outsize damage.”

Said one Biden adviser: “This is set up for a higher percentage than the 6% in 2016, in the Hillary-Trump election.”

“Three former members of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus — including the current governor of New Mexico — are teaming up to create a new super PAC to get more Hispanic Democrats elected to Congress,” Axios reports.

Wall Street Journal: “Gaining assets and income pushes voters toward conservative fiscal policies, such as lower taxes, that allow them to keep more of their money, researchers say. As Americans move from midlife to retirement, they are more likely to favor stability over change, and less likely to back liberal policies that upset the social order.”

“This rightward shift is likely to affect who wins elections in 2024 and the years beyond. One in six Americans is age 65 or over, up from one in eight a decade prior, according to the most recent decennial census. A slump in births that started in 2008 will eventually give way to a smaller pool of new, young voters.”

“On its face, the shift bodes well for Republicans. Yet its effects have been muted by the size and liberal bent of millennials now approaching middle age, and the more solidly blue partisanship of Gen Z voters just entering the electorate.”

KENTUCKY GOVERNOR. “Last fall, voters in deep red Kentucky delivered a win for Democrats when they rejected an amendment that would have written opposition to abortion into the state constitution,” NBC News reports.

“This year, state Democrats are again banking that voters will side with protecting abortion rights. They’re putting the issue front and center in the closely watched governor’s race on Nov. 7, hoping it will help boost Gov. Andy Beshear to another term.”

MISSISSIPPI GOVERNOR. A new Democratic Governor’s Association poll in Mississippi finds Gov. Tate Reeves (R) leading challenger Brandon Presley (D) 46% to 45%, with nearly 10% still undecided 15 days from the election.

The poll also shows that among those undecided voters, 68% have an unfavorable opinion of Reeves, while just 2% view him favorably.

Cook Political Report: “Among the trio of this year’s off-year gubernatorial contests, Mississippi has emerged as the most surprising race.”

“Republican Gov. Tate Reeves still has the edge, according to Republicans and Democrats nationally and locally we’ve talked to, but it’s morphed into a competitive fight with added intrigue heading into Election Day thanks to an unusually strong challenger in Brandon Presley. There is also an increasing scenario that neither candidate will top 50% on Nov. 7, which means the contest could head to a runoff three weeks later.”

Delaware politics from a liberal, progressive and Democratic perspective. Keep Delaware Blue.

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