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The Political Report – March 5, 2023

Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: “If no candidate receives a majority of Electoral College votes, the U.S. House of Representatives elected in the 2024 election would decide the presidency.”

“Republicans are very likely to continue to control enough House delegations to select the GOP nominee as the winner, meaning that 269 is effectively the winning Electoral College number for Republicans, while it’s 270 for Democrats.”

“Republicans currently control 26 of the 50 House delegations, the bare majority to win in the House if the Electoral College does not produce a majority winner.”

CHICAGO MAYOR. Former Secretary of State Jesse White, who was the only Black statewide elected official for much of his 24-year-tenure, on Thursday backed former Chicago Public Schools CEO Paul Vallas in the April 4 general election. Vallas’ allies are hoping this endorsement will help the white contender make inroads among African American voters against Cook County Commissioner Brandon Johnson, who is also Black: An unnamed Black elected official even predicted to the Chicago Sun-Times that other prominent African Americans would follow White and back Vallas.

White, who founded the famed Jesse White Tumbling Team, has long been one of the top vote-getters in the state, but his influence has its limits. Last year he supported Chicago City Clerk Anna Valencia in the Democratic primary to succeed him, but she lost to eventual winner Alexi Giannoulias 52-35.

NEW ORLEANS MAYOR. The group seeking to recall New Orleans Mayor LaToya Cantrell reached an unusual settlement with Louisiana Secretary of State Kyle Ardoin on Wednesday that makes its task easier by lowering the number of signatures needed to put a recall on the ballot from about 50,000 to 45,000. The deadline for election officials to finish verifying the petitions that the NoLaToya campaign submitted last week is March 22, though the mayor’s detractors have stubbornly refused to say how many they turned in.

Cantrell, who like almost every notable politician in the Crescent City is a Democrat, made history in 2017 when she became the first Black woman elected mayor, and she won re-election four years later with 65% against several little-known foes. Last year was a difficult one for her administration, though, as New Orleans had more homicides per capita than any other major city in America during the first half of 2022, and it went on to record more murders than it had in any year since 1996. New Orleans has also struggled with trash pickup since Hurricane Ida hit in the summer of 2021, problems Cantrell has argued she’s addressing with new contracts.

The mayor has been the subject to several unfavorable news stories about her personally as well. One involved $30,000 in first-class flights to Europe that she eventually agreed to reimburse the city for after weeks of resistance. Others have focused on her appearance at a trial in support of the family of a 14-year-old carjacker and allegations Cantrell has been living rent-free in a city-owned apartment in violation of ethics laws.

On top of all that, the estranged wife of a member of the mayor’s security detail accused her husband, Jeffrey Vappie, of having an affair with the married mayor. Cantrell has denied the allegations, saying in January, “By the time I complete my tenure as mayor I would have slept with half of the City of New Orleans based on false accusations that come my way sometimes daily.” An attorney for Vappie also insists his client never told his wife about an affair, though he didn’t address whether or not one had ever happened.

Cantrell’s detractors began collecting signatures in August to oust her, citing what they called her “[f]ailure to put New Orleans first and execute the responsibilities of the position.” The effort is led by Eileen Carter, a former city worker, and Beldon “Noonie Man” Batiste, a perennial candidate who took 5% against Cantrell in 2021. But while both are Democrats, the mayor’s team had sought to cast the campaign as a “Republican-backed maneuver”—a charge that proved merited after campaign finance reports revealed that almost all of the $488,000 NoLaToya brought in during the final quarter of 2022 came from just one man: Rick Farrell, who was one of Donald Trump’s largest donors in Louisiana.

Cantrell has continued to use Farrell, who is white, as a weapon against the recall campaign by invoking the legacy of Jim Crow in this majority-Black city. This week she said of Carter and Batiste, who are also Black, “[E]ven Black people in the Black community have been used—to be the focal point, to be the ones leading the line, so to speak—but absolutely not leading it with resources, like this recall campaign.” Cantrell’s own campaign, though, had just $7,000 on hand at the end of December to fight back if the recall makes the ballot.

That’s still a big “if.” NoLaToya had until last Wednesday to collect signatures from 20% of “active” New Orleans voters. The target dropped from 53,400 to 50,000 last month after the secretary of state’s office determined that about 17,000 people listed on the voter rolls should be classified as “inactive,” meaning they’ve both moved without submitting a new address and haven’t “voted in the last two federal elections or any other race in between.” (Inactive voters can become active again if they cast a ballot or confirm their address.)

NoLaToya, though, went to court to argue that another 33,000 voters were also wrongly classified as active. On Wednesday, the campaign and Ardoin, the state’s Republican secretary of state, reached a settlement in which Ardoin’s office agreed that 25,000 people would not be considered active “for purposes of the recall petition.” This deal, which was endorsed by a judge later that same day, means that recall proponents need only 45,000 petitions even though no voter’s status would actually change as a result of this agreement.

NoLaToya submitted its signatures on the day after Mardi Gras accompanied by a brass band that Batiste and Carter danced along with, but the celebration may have been premature. Recall expert Joshua Spivak says that an average of 20% of petitions are rejected in American recall campaigns, and we don’t know how much of a cushion NoLaToya has because the campaign still won’t say how many signatures it turned in—even though the information is considered a public record.

The New Orleans Times-Picayune and NoLaToya reached their own settlement last month under which the recall committee agreed to give the paper a copy of each submitted petition on Feb. 22. However, NoLaToya further demanded $15,000 to cover the cost of copies, to which the paper responded by asking a judge to hold the campaign in contempt.

So what happens if, after all this, there are in fact enough petitions to force a recall election? Democratic Gov. John Bel Edwards would have 15 days to select a date, though it’s not clear if he’d have any option other than to schedule it to coincide with the Oct. 14 statewide all-party primary.

The recall election, whenever it might take place, would then present voters with a simple yes or no question asking if Cantrell should be removed. No one has released any polls testing how such a recall would go, though a September survey from the University of New Orleans showed the mayor in bad shape with a 31-62 approval rating.

If “yes” were to take a majority, the mayor would leave office and the all-Democratic City Council would choose one of its two at-large members, JP Morrell or Helena Moreno, to serve as acting mayor. A special election would then take place for the remainder of Cantrell’s term in which all candidates, regardless of party, would compete on a single ballot, with a runoff occurring later if no one were to earn a majority. (Cantrell would be barred from competing.) No matter what, though, there will be an election for a full four-year term in the fall of 2025, when Cantrell is currently scheduled to be termed out.

INDIANA 3RD DISTRICT. State Sen. Andy Zay on Thursday became the first elected official to enter the Republican primary for Indiana’s 3rd Congressional District to succeed Rep. Jim Banks, who is the party’s frontrunner for Senate, in a Fort Wayne-based seat that Trump took 64-34.

Zay got his current post in 2016 after local party leaders appointed him to replace Banks, who was elected to Congress halfway through his legislative term. He made news two years later after a critic released direct messages Zay sent him in 2015 claiming, “Racism is not real. The biggest minority class in America is the white male.” The state senator responded by saying he regretted his words and, as WTHR put it at the time, “eventually” admitting racism is indeed real when asked.

The Republican easily won a full term a few months later, and he’s joined his caucus in voting for the state’s near-total ban on abortion. Zay also supported a bill last week to ban gender-affirming care for anyone under 18.

NEW YORK 3RD DISTRICT. The House Ethics Committee on Thursday became the latest institution to acknowledge that it’s investigating Republican Rep. George Santos. The committee said it would be looking into whether Santos “engaged in unlawful activity with respect to his 2022 congressional campaign; failed to properly disclose required information on statements filed with the House; violated federal conflict of interest laws in connection with his role in a firm providing fiduciary services; and/or engaged in sexual misconduct towards an individual seeking employment in his congressional office.”

Santos was already under investigation at the local, state, federal, and international levels.

Politico reports that former Democratic Rep. Tom Suozzi just took a post at the prominent consulting firm Actum, which is not the type of career shift most people do when they’re seriously mulling an upcoming bid for office. Some Democrats want Suozzi to try to reclaim his old seat from Republican fabulist George Santos, but Suozzi himself has never shown any public interest in a campaign.

MICHIGAN 7TH DISTRICT. Lansing Mayor Andy Schor announced Thursday that he was forming an exploratory committee for a potential campaign to succeed Rep. Elissa Slotkin, a fellow Democrat who is giving up this swing seat to run for the Senate. Several other Democrats have shown some interest in running, though Schor is the first to start raising money.

On the Republican side, former Rep. Mike Bishop made it clear to Inside Elections that he wouldn’t try to replace Slotkin, who ousted him in the old 8th during the 2018 blue wave. “I know it’s the trend lately to run in districts where you don’t live,” Bishop said, “but I have no interest in that.”

Democratic state Sen. Sarah Anthony tells the Lansing State Journal that she’s “considering” a bid for this open swing seat, but she doesn’t sound enthusiastic about the idea. “Lansing is always going to be my number one priority,” she said, adding, “and the higher you go up the less connected you are to that goal.”

State Rep. Emily Dievendorf didn’t rule out running for the swing seat, telling the Lansing State Journal’s Sheldon Krause, “At this point I’m focused on serving MI House District 77 and am waiting to see which viable candidates emerge as options to fill Rep. Slotkin’s seat.”

Dievendorf’s colleague, Jennifer Conlin, didn’t sound likely, though, saying, “I am grateful to have this opportunity and will continue working tirelessly on their behalf in Michigan’s House of Representatives.” Another Democrat, state Sen. Sam Singh, did make it clear he wouldn’t be running, however. Krause also mentions state Sen. Sarah Anthony and state Reps. Angela Witwer and Kara Hope as possible Democratic contenders, while the Detroit News lists former state Sen. Curtis Hertel as well.

On the Republican side, Krause identifies state Sen. Lana Theis as a potential candidate along with five state representatives: Brian Begole, Bob Bezotte, Graham Filler, Roger Hauck, and Gina Johnsen. An advisor to former state Sen. Tom Barrett, who lost to Slotkin 52-46 last year, said Monday his client “plans to” try again and will announce sometime in the next few weeks.

CALIFORNIA 12TH DISTRICT. BART Board member Lateefah Simon on Tuesday not only became the first serious Democrat to announce a bid to succeed Senate candidate Barbara Lee, she entered the race with endorsements from a few people who had previously shown some interest in running for this dark blue East Bay seat: Assemblywoman Mia Bonta, state Sen. Nancy Skinner, and former Oakland Mayor Libby Schaaf. Simon, who was born legally blind and uses public transportation to get to work, was first elected in 2016 to the body that oversees the Bay Area Rapid Transit system and is its only Black member.

Simon received a MacArthur Foundation genius grant earlier in her career in 2003 for her work leading the Center for Young Women’s Development, with the group commending her for “[d]irecting a distinctive program to assist troubled girls in their transition from delinquency and poverty to healthy adulthoods.” She also ran the anti-recidivism youth division when Vice President Kamala Harris was San Francisco district attorney, while Gov. Gavin Newsom later appointed Simon as a policing advisor to the Commission on Peace Officer Standards and Training.  

NEW JERSEY 7TH DISTRICT. Former Rep. Tom Malinowski reiterated this week that he’s still undecided about whether to try to reclaim his old seat from freshman Republican Rep. Tom Kean Jr., who ousted the Democrat 51-49 two years after narrowly losing their first bout, though Malinowski is currently focusing on a different effort.

The former congressman recently converted his campaign committee into a political action committee tasked with winning Garden State elections for boards of education in order to counter conservative offenses. “The goal here is to push back against the culture wars coming to New Jersey public schools,” Malinowski explained.

ARIZONA 3RD DISTRICT. Raquel Terán said Tuesday that she was stepping down as state Senate minority leader “to explore” a bid to succeed her fellow Democrat, Senate contender Ruben Gallego.  

CALIFORNIA U.S. SENATOR. Democratic Rep. Barbara Lee on Wednesday picked up a prominent endorsement from Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass, whose metropolis is located far from Lee’s Bay Area base. While Bass also served in the House with Lee’s two intra-party rivals, Southern California Reps. Katie Porter and Adam Schiff, the now-mayor and Lee were each leaders of the Congressional Black Caucus.

The trio is campaigning to succeed retiring Sen. Dianne Feinstein, who said Thursday she’s receiving treatment for shingles back in California. “I have been hospitalized and am receiving treatment in San Francisco and expect to make a full recovery,” said the Democrat, who has been absent for votes this week. “I hope to return to the Senate later this month.”

Delaware politics from a liberal, progressive and Democratic perspective. Keep Delaware Blue.

1 comment on “The Political Report – March 5, 2023

  1. cassandram

    Larry Hogan is out of the 2024 Presidential race. For those of you who noticed he was in. Pay attention to his fantasyland of what counts as “conservative principles”. They’ve NEVER been able to deliver on any of this.

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