Delaware

The Political Report – August 16, 2022

“President Biden will speak at a Democratic National Committee event in Maryland next week, rallying voters ahead of November’s midterm elections,” the Washington Post reports.

“It will be Biden’s first political rally in months and will serve as the kickoff to his fall midterm push.”

Wall Street Journal: “The passage along party lines of the $700 billion climate, healthcare and tax bill in the House Friday capped a run of legislative victories for the Democrats and the White House in recent months that also included bipartisan bills to boost U.S. semiconductor manufacturing, support veterans’ healthcare and address mass shootings.”

“With November’s midterm elections looming, Mr. Biden and Democrats hope to use these victories to appeal to the electorate as they seek to defend their narrow majorities in Congress. Their challenge will be moving voters who might not be paying attention to what bills are passing in Washington and have been grappling with economic uncertainty and high gasoline prices for more than a year.”

CNN: “Biden’s aides had been planning his own big speech at the end of July, in Wisconsin — until aides to Gov. Tony Evers, who’s in a tight reelection fight, urged him not to come so they could avoid being together. White House aides had decided to go through with it anyway, until they realized that the necessary security measures would force them to cancel the local favorite Oshkosh Air Show.”

“Now that big Biden speech is being planned for shortly after Labor Day. Aides are preparing a hard-hitting kick off for midterm campaigning, with the President touting tangible, long-talked-about wins like lowering prescription drug costs and gun restrictions while hammering Republicans for being extremists who are in the pocket of special interests.”

Playbook: “The White House, looking to capitalize on his string of policy and political wins, is launching a travel and media blitz over the next few weeks as it looks to beat the historical midterm odds in less than three months.”

ALASKA AT LARGE CD. “Sarah Palin’s bid to join the U.S. House, Sen. Lisa Murkowski’s effort to keep her Senate seat and Donald Trump’s influence on both of their races will be tested Tuesday in two simultaneous elections in Alaska — with voters casting ballots under unusual new conditions,” the Washington Post reports.

“Definitive results probably will not be determined for at least two weeks. State elections officials say they won’t start counting second choices and redistributing votes until the deadline for absentee ballots to arrive, and political observers see a race without a runaway candidate.”

Anchorage Mayor Dave Bronson, a Republican whose city is home to about 40% of the state’s population, has endorsed businessman Nick Begich III ahead of Tuesday’s instant-runoff special.

Meanwhile another Republican, former state Interior Department official Tara Sweeney, announced Friday that she’d registered with the state as an official write-in candidate for the special “after repeated requests from supporters,” though she said her main focus would be to advance out of the top-four primary for a full two-year term.

WYOMING AT LARGE CD. A new University of Wyoming poll finds Harriet Hageman (R) leading Rep. Liz Cheney (R) in the Republican primary, 52% to 30%.

Key finding: Only 16% of Hageman’s voters believe that President Joe Biden’s election was legitimate.

Washington Post: Liz Cheney’s political life is likely ending — and just beginning.

Politico: Cheney’s next mission: Keeping her anti-Trump megaphone.

HAWAII GOVERNOR. Lt. Gov. Josh Green defeated businesswoman Vicky Cayetano 63-21 in the primary to succeed their fellow Democrat, termed-out Gov. David Ige, while freshman Rep. Kai Kahele notched third with 15%. Green, who continued to work as a physician after going into politics, had a large media presence throughout the worst months of the pandemic, and he was the frontrunner from the start.

Green remains the favorite in November against former Lt. Gov. Duke Aiona, a two-time Republican nominee who scored a 50-26 victory over Ultimate Fighting Championship champion B.J. Penn. Aiona was defeated by former Rep. Neil Abercrombie 58-41 in the 2010 general election, and Aiona lost his chance for a rematch four years later when Ige beat the unpopular Abercrombie in the primary. Both parties believed that Aiona still had a real shot with another GOP wave looming and with conservative Democrat-turned-independent Mufi Hannemann threatening to siphon off votes from the Democratic ticket, but Ige turned back Aiona 49-37.

Joe Biden carried Hawaii 64-34 (he took each of the state’s two congressional districts by that same margin), and national Republicans haven’t shown any obvious sign of interest in targeting this seat again. Indeed, the RGA didn’t even respond for a Washington Post article that ran just before the primary.

HAWAII 1ST CD. Blue Dog Democrat Rep. Ed Case held off attorney Sergio Alcubilla by a lopsided 83-17 margin in this Honolulu-based seat. Alcubilla, who ran to Case’s left, had the backing of a few big unions, but he raised little himself and never attracted any serious outside spending.

HAWAII 2ND CD. Former state Sen. Jill Tokuda beat state Rep. Patrick Branco 58-25 in the Democratic primary to replace Kai Kahele in a constituency that includes northern Oahu and all of the state’s other islands.

Tokuda, who lost a tight 2018 primary to lieutenant governor to Josh Green, entered the race as the frontrunner, but a quartet of major outside groups—VoteVets, the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, Web3 Forward, and Mainstream Democrats PAC— spent a total of $1.2 million to elevate Branco or attack her. While this ad barrage represented a truly massive amount for a Hawaii congressional race, it turned out to be far from enough to stop Tokuda.

FLORIDA 1ST CD. Self-funding businessman Mark Lombardo’s latest commercial against Republican incumbent Matt Gaetz opens with the primary challenger declaring, “As a member of Congress, Matt Gaetz took an oath to protect America’s secrets. He broke that oath when he engaged in illicit behavior on foreign soil, leaving himself vulnerable to blackmail and putting our nation’s secrets at risk.” Lombardo doesn’t let up as the ad goes on, continuing, “To cover up, he paid pedophile Jeffrey Epstein’s attorney with donors’ cash and pressured Trump for a pardon for any or all crimes.”

FLORIDA 13TH CD. While 2020 nominee Anna Paulina Luna has always looked like the frontrunner to claim the Republican nomination again on Aug. 23 in this newly gerrymandered seat, attorney Kevin Hayslett’s outside group allies are deploying a serious amount to stop her. Florida Politics reports that Stand for Florida, a PAC that was set up in February, has spent $860,000 in recent days, which takes its total investment here all the way up to $1.5 million.

Luna, though, has gotten plenty of outside help herself, as the Club for Growth has dropped over $1.8 million to promote her. Conservative Outsider PAC, which is funded in part by Club donor Dick Uihlein, is also using about $110,000 for a commercial that responds to a recent Hayslett commercial that featured a clip of Luna appearing to praise Obama. The audience sees Luna warning that undocumented immigrants will cost conservatives “this country,” before the narrator notes that she’s Trump’s endorsed candidate.

The only recent poll we’ve seen here was a late July Hayslett internal that showed him trailing Luna 36-34 for this constituency in the St. Petersburg area.

NEW YORK 1ST CD. While Nick LaLota once appeared to have a smooth path through the Aug. 23 GOP primary for this competitive open seat, the chief of staff of the Suffolk County Legislature went up with a commercial against his main intra-party rival, cryptocurrency trader Michelle Bond, earlier this month.

The narrator insists that Bond is a “liberal D.C. lobbyist” with a history of “working for Obama and Biden as a registered Democrat.” The spot also declares that Bond “bankrolled a Trump-hating senator [and] lives in a mansion in the Swamp.” (That last bit is a reference to Bond’s newly purchased estate in Maryland, which she said is one of the “multiple residences” she has.) The rest of the ad promotes LaLota as a loyal Long Island conservative and “Trump conservative.”

Bond is airing her own ads (here and here) that tout her as a conservative businesswoman, though they do not mention LaLota. Bond has used her personal wealth to decisively outpace LaLota in the money race, and the outside spending has also very much benefited her. Stand for New York, a group that hasn’t gotten involved in any other races, has dropped $580,000 to attack LaLota. Another committee called Crypto Innovation PAC has also spent another $160,000 to promote Bond: The group is funded by crypto notable Ryan Salame, who just happens to be her boyfriend. (Salame has also bankrolled American Dream Federal Action, another super PAC that’s gotten involved in other GOP primaries.)

LaLota has not received any super PAC aid, though he does sport endorsements from the local Republican and Conservative parties. The contest to succeed GOP gubernatorial nominee Lee Zeldin also includes government relations firm executive Anthony Figliola, though he’s attracted little money or attention. The winner will go up against Suffolk County Legislator Bridget Fleming, who has no Democratic primary opposition, in an eastern Long Island constituency that Biden would have carried by a tiny 49.4-49.2.

NEW YORK 10TH CD. Attorney Dan Goldman on Saturday earned the backing of the New York Times, which is arguably one of the few newspaper endorsements still capable of moving voters in a local Democratic primary, ahead of the packed Aug. 23 contest for this safely blue seat based in Lower Manhattan and northwestern Brooklyn. The Times’ nod was especially coveted here: City & State wrote earlier this month, “One campaign said they’ve probably had 20 supporters email or call members of the board to make their case,” while an unnamed operative added, “Everybody lobbies … The question is to what degree.”

Those candidates may have had good reason to lobby. City & State notes that the NYT’s endorsement last year provided a huge lift to then-Sanitation Commissioner Kathryn Garcia in the primary for mayor of New York City and helped establish her as a frontrunner. Garcia still narrowly lost the instant-runoff contest to Eric Adams, but she performed well in areas that overlap with the 10th District as well as the 12th, which is home to another big Democratic primary.

Politico’s Joe Anuta also reports that Goldman has so far spent $2.8 million on TV ads, which is a truly massive sum for a campaign taking place in America’s priciest media market. Goldman, though, is an heir to the Levi Strauss & Co. fortune, and he has plenty of personal wealth and connections: The candidate, who would be one of the wealthiest members of Congress, has self-funded $4 million so far and raised another $1.5 million from donors through Aug. 3.  

Anuta relays that only one Goldman opponent, 17th District Rep. Mondaire Jones, has joined him on television, and he’s deployed a considerably smaller $784,000. The other contenders have stayed off the airwaves, which is a common strategy for candidates running in the massive New York City media market. (Over 20 million people live in this market, and relatively few can vote in the 10th District’s primary.)

“You’re wasting your spending on 90% of the people who see your ad,” explained Matthew Rey, a strategist who isn’t involved in this race. He added, “So is it a powerful way to persuasively and effectively reach that other 10%? Yes. But dollar-for-dollar, it’s a luxury.” Another unaligned consultant, Basil Smikle Jr., was even more skeptical, saying, “In a congressional race where you are expecting turnout to be low, there are much more efficient ways to spend your money than doing a large broadcast buy in the last couple of weeks.”

Goldman, though, is betting that voters will indeed react well to his TV spots, including a new piece touting his work in civil rights law and “leading the impeachment of Donald Trump.” The commercial also displays Trump’s message on his Truth Social platform (which, yes, still exists) reading, “Dan Goldman puts in his ad used in running for Congress that he ‘impeached Donald Trump'” to argue, “Donald Trump doesn’t want Dan Goldman in Congress, but we do.”

NEW YORK 17TH CD. The New York City Police Benevolent Association, which endorsed Trump in 2020, has spent $310,000 to oppose state Sen. Alessandra Biaggi in her Democratic primary against Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney. The spot labels Biaggi an “anti-police extremist,” which is the type of rhetoric Republicans usually love to throw at Democrats in general elections.

NEW YORK 19TH CD SPECIAL ELECTION. VoteVets has launched what Politico reports is a $450,000 ad buy to aid Democrat Pat Ryan, which makes this Team Blue’s first major independent expenditure ahead of an Aug. 23 special election. The narrator echoes Ryan in framing the contest as a choice between a pro-choice candidate and “a Congress that’ll pass a nationwide ban on abortion first chance they get.” She adds that Ryan, who served with the Army in Iraq “sure didn’t fight for our freedom abroad to see it taken away from women here at home.”

The NRCC, for its part, is continuing to try to frame Ryan as weak on public safety in its new spot.

NEW YORK 12TH CD. The New York Times on Saturday endorsed incumbent Jerry Nadler in his Democratic primary against fellow Rep. Carolyn Maloney and attorney Suraj Patel. 

“Sen. Chuck Schumer, New York’s most powerful Democrat in Washington, will throw his support behind Rep. Jerrold Nadler (D-NY) on Monday in a bruising Manhattan primary contest against the congressman’s longtime ally, Rep. Carolyn Maloney (D-NY),” the New York Times reports.

“Mr. Schumer becomes the first member of the state’s congressional delegation to take a side in the Aug. 23 race, which pits two House committee chairs with three decades’ service against one another.”

OKLAHOMA 2ND CD. The newest commercial in what’s turned into a very expensive Aug. 23 Republican runoff is a spot from the Club for Growth affiliate School Freedom Fund starring Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, who extols former state Sen. Josh Brecheen as an ardent “Trump conservative.”

This group has deployed $1.8 million during the second round to promote Brecheen, who is a former Club fellow, or rip his opponent, state Rep. Avery Fix, in the contest for this safely red eastern Oklahoma constituency. Two other organizations, Fund for a Working Congress and American Jobs and Growth PAC, have dropped a similar amount to help Frix, who outpaced Brecheen just 15-14 in late June.

FLORIDA 23RD CD. Broward County Commissioner Jared Moskowitz has earned endorsements from the National Education Association, the Florida Education Association, and the American Federation of Teachers ahead of this month’s Democratic primary.  

OHIO 9TH CD. Democratic incumbent Marcy Kaptur’s latest commercial argues that, while she’s fighting to lower drug prices, Republican J.R. Majewski “made a rap video.” Yes, you read that right: The QAnon-aligned candidate did indeed star in a piece called “Let’s Go Brandon Save America,” and Kaptur’s spot treats viewers to a mercifully small piece of it. “Not to poke fun at dementia, it’s a serious disease,” raps Majewski, “But come on, man, squeeze your cheeks when you sneeze.” Kaptur’s narrator concludes, “We don’t need celebrity wannabes, we need serious leaders tackling serious challenges.”

New York Times: “Arizona has become a bellwether for the rest of the nation, and not just because of its new status as a swing state and the first of these to be called for Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election. It was and has continued to be the nexus of efforts by former President Donald Trump and his Republican allies to overturn the 2020 election results. At the same time, party figures from Trump down to Rose Sperry have sought to blacklist every Arizona G.O.P. official who maintained that the election was fairly won — from Gov. Doug Ducey to Rusty Bowers, speaker of the state’s House of Representatives. Such leaders have been condemned as RINOs, or Republicans in name only, today’s equivalent of the McCarthy era’s ‘fellow travelers.’”

“The aggressive takeover of the Arizona G.O.P. by its far-right wing was made manifest on primary night earlier this month, when a slate of Trump-endorsed candidates — the gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake, the U.S. Senate candidate Blake Masters, the state attorney general candidate Abraham Hamadeh and the secretary of state candidate Mark Finchem — all prevailed. As a group, they maintain that the 2020 election was stolen, have promoted conspiracy theories about Covid and have vowed to protect Arizona’s schools from gender ideology, critical race theory and what McCarthyites denounced 70 years ago as ‘godless communism.’ They have cast the 2022 election as not just history-defining but potentially civilization-ending.”

Washington Post: Election deniers march toward power in key 2024 battlegrounds.

“Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’ campaign stop in New Mexico on Sunday is worth watching for two reasons: The state is one of the GOP’s best opportunities to flip a Democratic governorship,” Axios reports.

“And the Republican nominee has gotten this far without help from Donald Trump.”

Delaware politics from a liberal, progressive and Democratic perspective. Keep Delaware Blue.

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