The Political Report – 7/21/22

Maryland held its primary Tuesday, but because state election officials aren’t allowed to even start tabulating mail-in ballots until Thursday, a significant number of votes still need to be counted. You can find the current vote totals here. Democrat Wes Moore leads Tom Perez by 11 points for the Democratic nomination for Governor but only 61% of the vote is in.

“Maryland Republicans nominated Dan Cox, a first-term delegate who embraced Donald Trump’s rhetoric and tried to impeach Republican Gov. Larry Hogan, as their nominee for governor Tuesday, elevating him into a contentious fight to keep control of the governor’s mansion in a deeply Democratic state,” the Washington Post reports.

“The Republican primary race for governor tested the potency of the former president’s influence in a state that’s also embraced the pragmatic conservatism of term-limited Hogan, who won twice terms by appealing to independents and Democrats.”

“Outside Democratic groups flooded the airwaves with ads tying Cox to Trump in the final days of the race, hoping it would boost a candidate they viewed as ultimately easier to defeat.”

Vice News: “A man who organized buses to Washington on Jan. 6, tweeted during the Capitol Riot that Vice President Mike Pence was a ‘traitor,’ tried to impeach Maryland Republican Governor Larry Hogan over his actions to stem Covid-19, and spoke at a QAnon conference this spring, just won the Republican nomination for Maryland governor.”

“And he’s not even the most extreme candidate Maryland Republicans nominated for statewide office on Tuesday.”

Michael Peroutka, the pro-secessionist who once proudly called himself a “true Confederate,” is projected to win the Republican primary for Maryland attorney general against GOP establishment-backed rival Jim Shalleck.

Wisconsin Speaker Robin Vos (R) told WISN that Donald Trump called him “within the last week” still seeking to overturn the 2020 presidential election results. Said Vos: “I explained that it’s not allowed under the constitution. He has a different opinion.”

“Democrats across the 10 most competitive Senate races are out-raising Republicans by more than $75 million among small-dollar donors — those giving less than $200,” Axios reports.

“Inflation, Trump-induced donor fatigue and other factors are impacting the GOP grassroots, prompting Republican candidates to rely more heavily on high-dollar donors.”

Related from CBS News: ActBlue processed more than half a billion dollars in three-month period.

FiveThirtyEight: “On Aug. 2, Kansans will vote on a state constitutional amendment that would clarify that the state’s bill of rights does not protect Kansans’ right to an abortion. And even though the state leans Republican, new polling and fundraising numbers suggest it’s a close race.”

Democratic strategist Lis Smith on the Inside the Hive podcast:

“So if I’m on a Democratic campaign, and we’re concerned about him coming out of a primary, the good news is this: There’s a very, very vibrant, right-wing news ecosystem. And so what I would try to do is try to launder stories through there—Breitbart, Fox, Newsmax, Daily Wire, Daily Caller, Free Beacon, those sorts of sites. Because I think what we’ve seen increasingly is that those types of sites are less likely to pick up from mainstream media.”

“If you get a negative story about DeSantis in the Washington Post, or New York Times, maybe 10 or 15 years ago, that might have been seen as the ultimate coup. But today, if you really want something to take root, and especially among Republican primary voters, I would go straight to the right. I’m sure that there are things from his time as governor that would put him at odds with the Republican base.”

Pennsylvania U.S. Senate candidate John Fetterman (D) gave his first interview since having a stroke and told the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette that he’s “feeling really good,” said he has “nothing to hide” on the status of his health and described the lingering effects of his stroke as minor and infrequent.

Fetterman, 52, said he has “no physical limits,” walks 4 to 5 miles every day in 90-degree heat, understands words properly and hasn’t lost any of his memory.

Democrat John Fetterman will attend a fundraiser on Thursday in Philadelphia, which will make this his first scheduled in-person event since he suffered a stroke just before the May primary.

Former New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio (D) announced that he is dropping out of the congressional race in New York’s 10th congressional district.

Said de Blasio: “It’s clear to me that when it comes to this congressional district, people are looking for another option and I respect that. Time for me to leave electoral politics and focus on other ways to serve.”

The Arizona GOP Executive Committee formally censured Arizona House Speaker Rusty Bowers (R), saying “he is no longer a Republican in good standing,” KPNX reports.

“It’s so hostile. If I pull this off, it’s going to be a miracle.”— Arizona House Speaker Rusty Bowers (R), quoted by NBC News, on winning his GOP primary election after testifying before the January 6 Committee.

“The Ohio Supreme Court struck down the state’s Republican-drawn congressional map Tuesday, ruling that districts used in the May primary violate anti-gerrymandering rules in the state Constitution,” the Columbus Dispatch reports.

“In a 4-3 decision, the Supreme Court rejected Ohio’s 15-district congressional map and ordered Ohio lawmakers to redraw a new one for the 2024 elections within 30 days. If they can’t, the Ohio Redistricting Commission will have 30 days to adopt a congressional map.”

Sen. Mitt Romney (R-UT) said that helping election-denying candidates in Republican primaries could backfire on Democrats and lead to grave consequences for the country, the HuffPost reports.

Said Romney: “It’s not illegal but it sure is stupid. Be careful what you wish for. You may select somebody who actually wins and then you hurt the country as well as your own party.”

FLORIDA 4TH, 7TH, 13TH and 15TH CDs. The state Republican Party has released surveys of a quartet of primaries in open seats from The Tyson Group in order to determine which candidates will be invited to its debates. (The party required contenders to take at least 5% of the vote and to raise $100,000 through July 13 in order to be included.)

Over in the 4th District in the Jacksonville area, state Sen. Aaron Bean outpaces Navy veteran Erick Aguilar 24-14 as 59% remain undecided.  In the 7th around Orlando, Army veteran Cory Mills enjoys a 23-21 edge over state Rep. Anthony Sabatini; Navy veteran Brady Duke snags a distant third with 8%, while 40% don‘t choose a candidate.

In the 13th, which includes part of St. Petersburg, 2020 nominee Anna Paulina Luna beats attorney Kevin Hayslett 37-17; 2020 House candidate Amanda Makki is further back with 10%, and 33% are undecided. Finally, in the nearby 15th, state Sen. Kelli Stargel leads with 13% as former Secretary of State Laurel Lee and state Rep. Jackie Toledo are tied 10-10 for second; Navy veteran Demetrius Grimes snags 5%, with a 58% majority remaining uncommitted.

FLORIDA 4TH CD. Last week, Politico reported that the GOP fundraising platform WinRed ejected Navy veteran Erick Aguilar for sending out deceptive appeals that appeared to be from better-known Republican contenders. One email, which did not even mention Aguilar, instead employed Gov. Ron DeSantis’ logo and declared, “It is time to help America’s #1 Governor. Can we count on you to support DeSantis?”

DeSantis himself wasn’t happy, saying Monday, “If my name is being used to trick people into providing donations for something that they don’t necessarily want to do, that is definitely wrong.” The governor has not yet taken sides in the Aug. 23 GOP primary, but he’s been an ally of the frontrunner, state Sen. Aaron Bean.

FLORIDA 7TH CD. Former congressional staffer Rusty Roberts has earned an endorsement from former Rep. John Mica, who is his old boss as well as the last Republican to hold this district—albeit two versions ago.

U.S. Term Limits has released a survey from RMG Research that gives state Rep. Anthony Sabatini a 23-16 lead over Army veteran Cory Mills in the Aug. 23 GOP primary for this newly gerrymandered seat; Navy veteran Brady Duke takes third with 9%, while 42% were undecided. The group did not express a preference for a candidate, though it noted that Sabatini and Mills have both signed its term limits pledge.

The state Republican Party commissioned numbers from The Tyson Group to determine who to invite to its debate, and it showed Mills edging out Sabatini 23-21 as Duke earned a similar 8%.

MISSOURI 1ST CD. The Republican firm Remington Research Group’s newest poll for the local tip-sheet Missouri Scout gives freshman Rep. Cori Bush a 40-20 advantage over state Sen. Steve Roberts in the Aug. 2 Democratic primary.  

NEW YORK 3RD CD. DNC member Robert Zimmerman has earned Hillary Clinton’s endorsement ahead of the Aug. 23 Democratic primary.

NEW YORK 10TH CD. Assemblymember Yuh-Line Niou and her allies at the Working Families Party are out with an internal from the Justice Research Group that shows her deadlocked with New York City Councilwoman Carlina Rivera in next month’s Democratic primary:

  • Assemblywoman Yuh-Line Niou: 16
  • City Councilwoman Carlina Rivera: 16
  • Attorney Dan Goldman: 10
  • Rep. Mondaire Jones: 8
  • Assemblywoman Jo Anne Simon: 6
  • Former Rep. Elizabeth Holtzman: 4
  • Former Mayor Bill de Blasio: 3
  • Attorney Maud Maron: 2
  • Undecided: 40

While we hadn’t previously encountered the Justice Research Group, the survey was directed by pollster Jonathan Chavez of SocialSphere, a well-known Massachusetts-based firm. A recent survey for Data for Progress, which polled the contest independently, had Rivera edging out Niou 17-14, with a smaller 27% plurality unsure of its choice.  

FLORIDA 13TH CD. Former Department of Defense official Eric Lynn, who is the only Democrat running for this open seat, has released a poll from David Binder Research that gives him a 45-43 edge over 2020 GOP nominee Anna Paulina Luna, who is the frontrunner in next month’s primary. The survey came  weeks after Lynn publicized an internal from a different firm, Global Strategy Group, that showed Luna leading him 45-36.

NEW YORK 23RD CD. Carl Paladino has dropped a GOP primary survey from WPA Intelligence that shows the 2010 gubernatorial nominee lapping state party chair Nick Langworthy 54-24. This is the first poll we’ve seen of the contest to succeed Rep. Chris Jacobs, who retired last month after coming out in support of gun safety following the mass shooting in nearby Buffalo.

Paladino, the proto-Trump who served as Team Red’s 2010 nominee for governor, is using his wealth to far outpace state party chair Nick Langworthy in the money race for this open seat. Paladino, who raised all of $50 from other people, sunk $1.5 million of his own money into his campaign, which left him with $1.4 million on hand.

Langworthy, by contrast, raised $310,000 and had a similar $300,000 available in his quest to succeed GOP Rep. Chris Jacobs, who decided to retire in June after coming out in favor of gun safety following the mass shooting in Buffalo. This seat, which is based in the Buffalo suburbs and southwestern upstate New York, would have supported Trump 58-40.

TENNESSEE 5TH CD. The Tennessee Journal reports that outside groups are now airing ads against three of the leading candidates ahead of the Aug. 4 Republican primary for this newly gerrymandered seat. The top spender is the School Freedom Fund, which has dropped $450,000 so far castigating both former state House Speaker Beth Harwell and retired Brig. Gen. Kurt Winstead as “too liberal for Tennessee.”

A second group aligned with the Club for Growth, USA Freedom Fund, has used $400,000 so far to promote Maury County Mayor Andy Ogles and attack Harwell for her 2001 vote “to give drivers’ licenses to illegal aliens” months before the Sept. 11 attacks. Harwell, for her part, is running her own commercial touting her work three years later to repeal that legislation, though the narrator merely says she “stopped illegals from getting drivers’ licenses.”

Harwell’s allies at Tennessee Conservatives, finally, have spent $130,000 so far going after Ogles for having “failed to pay his property taxes nine times” but “supported increasing the sales tax and didn’t oppose a property tax hike or a marriage tax.”

WASHINGTON 3RD CD. A newly formed organization called Conservatives for a Stronger America is spending $740,000 on an ad campaign that promotes evangelical author Heidi St. John as an ardent opponent of abortion, but plenty of observers are wondering if the effort is really intended to help a different Republican ahead of the Aug. 2 top-two primary. One of those skeptics is Trump’s choice, Army veteran Joe Kent, who emailed supporters that this spending is meant to “prop up a spoiler candidate and split the vote so they can re-elect the Establishment’s RINO incumbent, Jaime Herrera Beutler.”

WYOMING AT LARGE CD. The first media poll of the Aug. 19 Republican primary comes to us from Mason-Dixon on behalf of the Casper Star-Tribune, and it finds attorney Harriet Hageman demolishing incumbent Liz Cheney 52-30.

The Club for Growth, which has joined Trump in endorsing Hageman, quickly piled on with its own internal from WPA Intelligence giving her a larger 59-31 advantage, which is similar to the challenger’s 56-26 edge in May. NBC says that this new poll assumes that 13% of the GOP electorate will be made up of Democrats, a group that Cheney is encouraging to temporarily re-register as Republicans in order to support her.

“Rep. Carolyn Maloney (D-NY) holds a commanding financial advantage over her crosstown Democratic primary opponent, Rep. Jerrold Nadler (D-NY), thanks to a familiar benefactor: herself,” the New York Times reports.

“She personally lent her campaign $900,000, according to new filings released late Friday.”

Rep. Ken Calvert (R-CA) “has held on to his seat in Congress for 30 years, in part by opposing gay rights,” the Los Angeles Times reports.

“Now that he’s running for reelection against a gay rival in a district that includes one of the largest concentrations of LGBTQ voters in America, Calvert says his views have changed.”

Delaware politics from a liberal, progressive and Democratic perspective. Keep Delaware Blue.

1 comment on “The Political Report – 7/21/22

  1. John Kowalko

    Even a conservative leaning publication can write facts. Thanks Delaware Live. Hello News Journal, are you still publishing?

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