Timothy Carney: “Most people, including 60% of Republicans, basically want Biden to do something pretty close to what he’s doing now. Although 46% of Republicans say Biden should ‘do more… when it comes to the war in Ukraine,’ the most substantive questions yield answers along the line of arm Ukraine, sanction Russia, but don’t get us into war.”
“And again, that is, more or less, what Biden is doing. Biden, unlike former Presidents Barack Obama, George W. Bush, and Bill Clinton, seems to have landed on foreign policy where most of the country is. We are not the world’s policeman, but we are not afraid to intervene in small ways to help the good guy against the bad guy is.”
Gallup: “During Joe Biden’s fifth quarter in office, which began on January 20 and ended on April 19, an average of 41.3% of U.S. adults approved of the job he was doing as president.”
“The latest average is essentially unchanged from the 41.7% in his fourth quarter but significantly lower than his first three quarterly averages.”
A new NH Journal poll finds that if the 2024 election were held today, and the two candidates for president were Joe Biden and Chris Sununu, the GOP governor would trounce Biden in New Hampshire 53% to 36%.
The poll also found Granite Staters believe America is on the wrong track by a nearly 3-to-1 margin, 64% to 23%.
Some fascinating data from Ryan Burge:
- For those born between 1930 and 1949, they did move rightward between 2008 and 2021.
- For those born between 1950 and 1964, there was no change at all.
- For those born after 1965, they have moved to the left.
FLORIDA 4TH and 5TH CD. Republican state Senate President Pro Tempore Aaron Bean says he is “still exploring” a congressional run, which Florida Politics indicates would likely be in the new 4th District.
Republican legislators passed a new congressional map this week (see our FL Redistricting item above) that carves up Jacksonville to create two Republican-leaning districts by dismantling the existing 5th District, which is a predominantly Black and safely Democratic seat stretching to Tallahassee, but the redrawn 5th District corresponds more closely to GOP Rep. John Rutherford’s existing 4th District and contains most of his current turf. Florida Politics treats it as a given that Rutherford would run there instead, meaning the new 4th is effectively the closest successor to the old 5th even though it’s a very different constituency.
State Rep. Jason Fischer and Jacksonville City Councilman Rory Diamond have both previously said they were also considering running, and Florida Politics says they would also run in the 4th if they join the August GOP primary. One Republican who won’t be running for either seat, though, is term-limited Jacksonville Mayor Lenny Curry, who said he will finish out the rest of his term through 2023.
ARIZONA 6TH CD. EMILY’s List has endorsed state Sen. Kirsten Engel ahead of the August Democratic primary.
Engel raised $225,000 in the first quarter and finished March with $639,000 on hand compared to her other notable primary opponent, state Rep. Daniel Hernández, who raised $154,000 and had $447,000 in the bank. On the Republican side is Juan Ciscomani, a former senior advisor to Gov. Doug Ducey, who raised $443,000 and had $1.1 million in cash-on-hand.
ILLINOIS 15TH CD. Rep. Mary Miller has launched an ad going after fellow GOP Rep. Rodney Davis for voting to create the Jan. 6 investigation committee. The spot calls Davis a “RINO” while noting that Miller has Trump’s endorsement.
Davis held a sizable edge over Miller in first quarter fundraising, though, raising $923,000 and finishing March with $1.9 million in cash-on-hand. By contrast, Miller brought in just $335,000 and had $511,000 left over at the start of April.
INDIANA 1ST CD. Air Force veteran Jennifer-Ruth Green has debuted a GOP primary ad that portrays former LaPorte Mayor Blair Milo as a “Never Trump liberal” who refused to back Trump in 2016 and criticized his immigration policies. Green touts her own support from Indiana Right to Life and her top rating from the NRA.
Milo led Green $208,000 to $155,000 in first quarter fundraising, but she had just $111,000 on hand compared to Green’s $151,000 at the end of the quarter. The primary is on May 3.
ILLINOIS 1ST CD. SEIU Local 1, which says it represents 30,000 members across Illinois, has endorsed Chicago Alderman Pat Dowell ahead of the crowded Democratic primary in June.
Dowell led the pack in fundraising, raising $382,000 in the first three months of 2022, and he held $297,000 on hand at the start of April. Close behind was businessman Jonathan Swain, who reported $356,000 in donations, an additional $19,000 in self-funding, and $322,000 in cash-on-hand. Former Chicago Cook Workforce Partnership CEO Karin Norington-Reaves raised $291,000 and had $237,000 leftover to spend, while construction company owner Jonathan Jackson raised $145,000 and had $130,000 in the bank.
Four other candidates reported raising less than $100,000: Real estate executive Nykea Pippion McGriff raised $85,000, self-funded an additional $3,000, and had $79,000 remaining; former Illinois Criminal Justice Information Authority official Charise Williams took in $83,000 and had $44,000 left in the bank; state Sen. Jacqueline Collins raised $69,000, self-funded an additional $10,000, and had $62,000 left to spend; and Pastor Stephany Rose Spaulding, whom we hadn’t previously mentioned, raised a mere $50,000, self-funded $23,000, and had $27,000 on hand.
OKLAHOMA 2ND CD. Republicans have a huge 14-person lineup to succeed Senate candidate Markwayne Mullin in an eastern Oklahoma seat that Trump would have carried 76-22, and there’s no obvious frontrunner at this point. One contender, though, ended March with a big financial lead over their many foes:
- Economy Pharmacy CEO Chris Schiller: $257,000 raised, additional $250,000 self-funded, $501,000 cash-on-hand
- State Sen. Marty Quinn: $106,000 raised, additional $27,000 self-funded, $129,000 cash-on-hand
- State Rep. Dustin Roberts: $83,000 raised, additional $25,000 self-funded, $105,000 cash-on-hand
- Muskogee Chief of Police Johnny Teehee: $42,000 raised, additional $210,000 self-funded, $250,000 cash-on-hand
- State party chair John Bennett: $27,000 raised, $23,000 cash-on-hand
- State Rep. Avery Frix: $15,000 raised, additional $200,000 self-funded, $215,000 cash-on-hand
The race includes several other politicians who joined the race after the new fundraising quarter began:
- businessman Guy Barker
- former state Sen. Josh Brecheen
- former state Rep. David Derby
- former defense contractor Pamela Gordon
- Cherokee Nation Tribal Councilor Wes Nofire
The remaining three Republicans don’t appear to be serious contenders, though it’s always possible one of them could advance to a runoff in this outsized field.
RHODE ISLAND 2ND CD. Former state Rep. David Segal declared Wednesday that he was joining the September Democratic primary for this open seat, an announcement that came almost two months after he began raising money for a potential campaign to succeed retiring Rep. Jim Langevin.
Segal, as we’ve written before, was active in Providence progressive politics in 2002 when he was elected to the City Council as a member of the Green Party, and he briefly served as the chamber’s minority leader. After joining the Democrats and winning a seat in the state House, Segal ran for the 1st District in 2010, which was the last time Rhode Island had an open-seat race for Congress. He campaigned to the left of his many primary foes and ended up in third place with 20%; the winner, with 37%, was Providence Mayor David Cicilline, who still holds the district today. Segal didn’t seek elected office in the ensuing decade, though he did found the national liberal organization Demand Progress.
INDIANA 9TH CD. American Dream Federal Action, a cryptocurrency-aligned PAC on the Republican side, has reported spending at least $387,000 on GOP primary ads for former state Sen. Erin Houchin.
Houchin raised the most money of any Republican candidate from donors in the first quarter, having brought in $377,000 and holding $250,000 on hand. Army veteran Stu Barnes-Israel raised $264,000, self-funded an additional $101,000, and had $232,000 left to spend. Former Rep. Mike Sodrel took in just $38,000 from donors but self-funded an additional $429,000, almost all of which he spent to end up with only $58,000 on hand. Lastly, businessman Jim Baker, whom we hadn’t previously mentioned, raised $64,000 and had $40,000 remaining on hand.
VIRGINIA 2ND CD. Candidate filing closed on April 7 for Virginia’s June 21 primaries, and we’ll be taking a look at the state of play in each competitive congressional race now that first quarter fundraising numbers are in; you can find a list of contenders here.
Democratic Rep. Elaine Luria is defending a Virginia Beach-based seat where, following redistricting, Joe Biden’s margin of victory was halved from 51-47 to 50-48. National Republicans, including the deep-pocketed Congressional Leadership Fund, have consolidated behind state Sen. Jen Kiggans, who won her seat in a close 2019 general election campaign. Luria outraised Kiggans $1.2 million to $435,000 during the first three months of 2022 and ended March with a huge $3.16 million to $593,000 cash-on-hand.
Before she can go up against Luria, Kiggans needs to get past high school football coach Jarome Bell, a Big Lie fanatic who has the backing of 5th District Rep. Bob Good. Bell, who earned last place in the 2020 three-way primary with 23%, had a mere $9,000, though, so he may not be much of an obstacle for Kiggans, who has been happy to entertain election conspiracies herself.
VIRGINIA 7TH CD. While some Northern Virginia Democrats initially expressed interest in waging a primary bid against Rep. Abigail Spanberger after the new congressional map replaced much of her suburban Richmond base with turf in populous Prince William County, Spanberger will face no intra-party opposition. Those dramatic changes boosted Biden’s margin from just 50-49 to 52-46, but six Republicans are hoping to take her on.
Both state Sen. Bryce Reeves and Green Beret veteran Derrick Anderson were running against Spanberger before the remap, and they’ve continued their campaigns here: Reeves outraised Anderson $269,000 to $232,000 during the most recent fundraising quarter, and he finished March with a small $390,000 to $371,000 cash-on-hand lead.
Prince William County Supervisor Yesli Vega, meanwhile, entered the race shortly after redistricting was completed, and she raised $357,000 in her first three months and had $294,000 to spend. Another new arrival, Stafford County Board of Supervisors Chair Crystal Vanuch, took in $82,000 but self-funded $402,000, which left her with $468,000 to spend. Spotsylvania County Supervisor David Ross, likewise, raised $42,000 and provided $101,000 more, which left him with a $121,000 war chest. The final Republican, 2021 state House nominee Gina Ciarcia, had less than $15,000 to spend. Spanberger herself raised $1.13 million to defend herself, and she finished March with $3.89 million in the bank.
MARYLAND 1ST CD. Rep. Andy Harris, who is one of the Republican party’s leading election deniers, is defending a seat along the Eastern Shore that would have backed Donald Trump 56-42, which is considerably more conservative than the seat Democrats drew up last year for a map that was ultimately struck down in state court.
Harris still faces a well-funded Democratic challenger in the form of former Del. Heather Mizeur, who took third place in the 2014 primary for governor and would be the first lesbian to represent the state in Congress. Harris outraised Mizeur $468,000 to $372,000 during the first quarter of 2022, and he finished March with a $1.88 million to $1.12 million cash-on-hand edge. Foreign policy strategist Dave Harden is also competing in the Democratic primary, but he’s raised little so far.
ALASKA AT LARGE CD. Jim Palin endorsed Nick Begich (R) for Congress over his former daughter-in-law, Sarah Palin (R).
NORTH CAROLINA 11TH CD. “Taxpayers footed the bill for Rep. Madison Cawthorn’s (R-NC) visit to a luxury riverside mountain resort in August 2021,” the Washington Examiner reports.
Dashcam footage shows Rep. Madison Cawthorn (R-NC) getting pulled over in a traffic stop and being asked to surrender his license, the Raleigh News & Observer reports. Cawthorn is scheduled to appear in court on May 6.
COLORADO 5TH CD. Colorado state Rep. Dave Williams (R) is suing to be known as Dave “Let’s Go Brandon” Williams on the Republican primary ballot for the 5th congressional district, the Denver Post reports.
GEORGIA 7TH CD. Democratic Reps. Lucy McBath and Carolyn Bourdeaux are facing off against each other in the June primary for this safely blue seat in the Atlanta suburbs, and both incumbents have launched new ads this week that put voting rights front and center.
In McBath’s ad, the congresswoman relays how her father brought her to the 1963 March on Washington as a toddler, and she calls the right to vote “sacred” in a democracy before warning how it’s “under assault by Republicans right here in Georgia.” McBath touts how she has fought in Congress to pass a new Voting Rights Act named after the late civil rights leader John Lewis, who represented a neighboring Atlanta seat.
Bordeaux’s spot has a slightly different emphasis, detailing how she overcame the naysayers who said she couldn’t win in a historically red district. Recounting how her team “sued the state” to make sure every vote counted, Bourdeaux says she was “the only Democrat in the country” to flip a Republican-held House seat in 2020. (While that isn’t entirely right—Democrats did flip two other seats in North Carolina after litigation replaced the GOP’s gerrymander with a fairer map—Bourdeaux was indeed the only Democrat to flip a GOP-held seat without an assist from redistricting.) Bourdeaux then argues that we can prove the naysayers wrong again if we stand together to pass a new VRA.
Voting rights is not a typical subject of ads, but it has become increasingly salient for Democrats this cycle as Republicans have passed a wave of voting restrictions in state after state in reaction to their 2020 election defeats, making diverse communities such as Atlanta the epicenter of their voter suppression efforts. McBath and Bourdeaux have another good reason to focus on Republican attacks on democracy, since they are only facing each other in a primary because GOP gerrymandering drastically reshaped their seats and made McBath’s old 6th District unwinnably red, a gerrymander that would have been illegal if Republicans hadn’t blocked Democrats from passing their reforms in Congress.
We can expect a whole lot more advertising from both candidates, though, judging by their recent first quarter fundraising reports. McBath hauled in $797,000 during the first three months of 2022 and had $2.9 million in the bank as of April 1. Bourdeaux, meanwhile, raised $591,000 and had $2.1 million in cash-on-hand at the start of April. While a third candidate, state Rep. Donna McLeod, is also running, she raised a mere $22,000 and had only $15,000 on hand, which is far below what is needed to effectively get her message out.
NORTH CAROLINA 1ST CD. The state AFL-CIO has endorsed state Sen. Don Davis in the May 17 Democratic primary for this open seat.
NORTH CAROLINA 4TH CD. Protect Our Future PAC, the group funded by crypto billionaire Sam Bankman-Fried, is spending at least $771,000 to boost state Sen. Valerie Foushee in next month’s Democratic primary for this safely blue seat.
NEW HAMPSHIRE 2ND CD. Brewery owner Jeff Cozzens announced Thursday that he was exiting the August Republican primary to take on Democratic incumbent Annie Kuster.
PENNSYLVANIA 8TH CD. 2020 Republican nominee Jim Bognet has launched the first ad for his rematch against Democratic Rep. Matt Cartwright, and he quickly makes it clear what kind of campaign he’ll be running when he opens, “In 2020, President Trump endorsed me for Congress. But that election was stolen from us.”
OREGON 6TH CD. State Rep. Andrea Salinas’ second ad ahead of the May 17 Democratic primary focuses on how the Supreme Court is poised to overturn Roe v. Wade and how she strengthened abortion rights legislation in Oregon so that choice will be protected “no matter what happens in D.C.”
Protect Our Future PAC has dropped an additional $1.9 million to aid economic development adviser Carrick Flynn in the May 17 Democratic primary for this newly created seat, which brings its total investment here to a staggering $7 million.
VIRGINIA 5TH CD. Former Henry County Supervisor Andy Parker has ended his campaign for the Democratic nomination after party officials said last week that he had failed to turn in enough valid signatures to make the ballot for the June primary.
OHIO 11TH CD. Former state Sen. Nina Turner, who lost last year’s special election Democratic primary to now-Rep. Shontel Brown, is out with a negative ad for next month’s primary that argues the incumbent has a record of lining her own pockets while failing to do anything for voters.
Starting off by remarking upon how recent inflation has hit working families hard, Turner’s spot claims that Brown “opposed Biden’s plan” for a “living wage” and voted to raise her own pay by $7,000. The latter claim could lead viewers to believe the pay raise vote happened during Brown’s tenure in Congress while inflation ate up Ohioans’ paychecks, even though the ad cites a 2016 vote from when she was on the Cuyahoga County Council.
Turner’s spot then revives an unsubstantiated allegation she made during last summer’s special election that Brown faced an ethics investigation after she “voted for millions in corrupt contracts.” However, as we noted at the time, Turner’s accusation that Brown was referred to the Ohio Ethics Commission relies on a story co-authored by left-wing essayist Walker Bragman, who notoriously wrote a 2016 piece headlined, “A liberal case for Donald Trump.” But Bragman’s own story acknowledged at the very end that the commission refused to “confirm or deny” any such investigation existed, and there was no reliable reporting as to whether it did.
CALIFORNIA 41ST CD. The Democratic-aligned Welcome PAC is publicizing a poll from Tulchin Research taken in late February and early March that shows Democrat and former federal prosecutor Will Rollins holding a 42-41 lead over longtime Republican Rep. Ken Calvert in a suburban Riverside County district that Trump would have carried just 50-49. This is the first poll we’ve seen from anyone here.
Rollins has been endorsed by neighboring Democratic Rep. Mark Takano and former Sen. Barbara Boxer, and he raised $466,000 in the first quarter and started April with $618,000 in the bank. Another Democrat competing in the June top-two primary, engineer Shrina Kurani, raised $141,000, self-funded $9,000, and had $208,000 in the bank. Calvert faces only minor intra-party opposition, and he brought in $587,000 last quarter and finished with $1.4 million on-hand.
PENNSYLVANIA 12TH CD. Former Pennsylvania Securities Commission head Steve Irwin’s new Democratic primary ad shows him playing an accordion while the narrator contends that some in Congress merely “want to make noise” while others “want to work in harmony.” They praise Irvin as someone who will protect voting rights, invest in vocational job training, and put Biden’s infrastructure law to work “repairing our unsafe bridges.”
TENNESSEE 5TH CD. The Tennessee GOP’s executive committee voted Tuesday evening to keep three candidates off the August primary ballot for not meeting the party’s definition of a “bona fide” Republican: former State Department spokesperson Morgan Ortagus, who is Trump’s endorsed candidate; businessman Baxter Lee; and music video producer Robby Starbuck. Ortagus responded, “Our team is evaluating the options before us,” while Starbuck declared, “The fight has only just begun.” Lee’s team, meanwhile, defended their man as a Republican “through and through,” but it didn’t say whether he’d be challenging his dismissal.
So what’s the rumpus? The state GOP’s bylaws state that, in order to be a so-called “bona fide” party member, a candidate must have voted in at least three of the last four statewide primaries or been “actively involved” in state or county Republican activities; Democrats have a similar requirement, except candidates only need to have participated in three of the last five nomination contests. Ortagus only moved to Tennessee last year from D.C., so she hasn’t been there nearly long enough to meet this criteria, while Starbuck is in the same boat, since he relocated to the state just three years ago. Lee is more established, but his campaign says he was bounced because he hadn’t voted in a sufficient number of recent primaries even though he’d taken part in 10 of the last 12.
Party leaders can still vote to classify a candidate as “bona fide” if someone vouches for them or if a contender appeals the initial rejection. That’s just what the trio hoped would happen after they were initially kept off the ballot earlier this month, but the GOP’s executive committee didn’t go along: According to state party chair Scott Golden, 13 members of the 17-person body voted to keep Ortagus and Starbuck off, while 11 were against Lee. When the New York Times asked Golden if the decision was final, he said it was “possible the members could change their minds” before the deadline for a reversal passes Thursday at noon local time.
Ortagus infuriated powerful local Republicans when she entered the race for this newly gerrymandered seat in January, so much so that state Sen. Frank Niceley sponsored a bill that would impose a requirement that House candidates need to have voted in the previous three statewide general elections to be eligible to run. (The legislation, which appears to be unconstitutional, will not go into effect until next cycle because Gov. Bill Lee only allowed it to become law after the April 7 filing deadline.)
But Niceley took the dispute in a much uglier direction when he recently told NBC, “I don’t think Trump cares one way or the other” about Ortagus’ candidacy. “I think Jared Kushner—he’s Jewish, she’s Jewish—I think Jared will be upset. Ivanka will be upset. I don’t think Trump cares.”
Ortagus, who is Jewish, fired back Tuesday night with a tweet saying that Niceley “should be ashamed of his repeated anti-Semitic rhetoric.” Niceley, who backs former state House Speaker Beth Harwell, was not ashamed, responding, “Attempting to construe my off-hand comments about the Trump family as antisemitism is unfair and inaccurate.” Last week, Nicely made headlines for a speech he gave on the Senate floor in which he said that Adolf Hitler should serve as an inspiration for homeless people.