Bloomberg: “States will soon learn if they’re going to gain or lose ground in the House of Representatives and in presidential elections.”
“By the end of next week, the U.S. Census Bureau will release the first official results of the 2020 Census: the state population counts that will redistribute the 435 House seats, and lock in that configuration for the next five congressional elections, from 2022 to 2030.”
Ronald Brownstein: “Since 1980, almost every incumbent president won a higher share of the vote among Latinos in their reelection campaign than they did in their first race. (The sole exception was George H. W. Bush, whose vote share fell when he sought reelection in a three-way race during the economic downturn of 1992.) Compared to the other incumbent presidents, Trump’s gains from 2016 to 2020 were about average or a little better than average, depending on which data source you use.”
Said Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ): “Latinos will always vote for an incumbent at a higher rate than they did last time. It’s driven by respect for authority, a certain level of patriotism, too, and a belief that we don’t want to change ships in the middle of a crisis.”
“A dozen megadonors and their spouses contributed a combined $3.4 billion to federal candidates and political groups since 2009, accounting for nearly one out of every 13 dollars raised,” the New York Times reports.
A new report shows the top 12 donors split equally between six Democrats and six Republicans.
Washington Examiner: “The National Republican Congressional Committee outraised its counterpart, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, by $1.7 million in online fundraising in the first quarter for 2021.”
Nevada Secretary of State Barbara Cegavske (R) told the state Republican Party on Wednesday that an investigation had found no “evidentiary support” for its allegations of widespread voter fraud in the 2020 election, CNN reports.
TEXAS 6TH CD — While Sen. Ted Cruz has not backed anyone in the very crowded May 1 all-party primary, he’s making it very clear which fellow Republican he wants to lose. Cruz put out a statement to the Texas Tribune declaring, “[State Rep.] Jake Ellzey’s financial support from never-Trumpers, openness to amnesty, and opposition to school choice should concern Texans looking for a conservative leader.” That declaration came shortly after Cruz’s longtime allies at the far-right Club for Growth began running a TV spot attacking Ellzey.
GEORGIA 10TH CD — The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports that wealthy businessman Matt Richards is “nearing an announcement” for this safely red open seat, and that the Republican “is likely to seed his campaign with $1 million” to start. No notable Republicans have declared candidates yet to succeed Rep. Jody Hice, who is leaving this east-central Georgia district to challenge Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger for renomination.
NEW YORK 11TH CD — Army veteran Brittany Ramos DeBarros currently is the only candidate seeking the Democratic nomination to face freshman Republican Rep. Nicole Malliotakis, but City & State reports that there’s plenty of speculation about others who could get in. One of those “rumors” is that 2012 nominee Mark Murphy, who lost that campaign 52-47 to Republican incumbent Mike Grimm, could run again. Murphy, though, is currently competing in the June primary for Staten Island borough president, an office that has been in GOP hands since the 1989 election. There is also chatter that nonprofit head Yesenia Mata could run; Mata’s husband, Cesar Vargas, is one of Murphy’s current intra-party opponents.
Finally, some Democrats are still speculating that former Rep. Max Rose, who lost re-election to Malliotakis 53-47 last year, could try again. Rose took a post in the Department of Defense in January, and one unnamed source acknowledged that he couldn’t run as long as he’s at the Pentagon. However, this person added that Rose likely could launch a late bid if he wanted to.
NEW YORK 23RD CD — Defense Department official Andrew McCarthy said this week that he would seek the Republican nomination for the seat held by GOP Rep. Tom Reed, who decided to retire after a woman accused him of sexual harassment. McCarthy, who told the Olean Times Herald he had planned to take on Reed before the incumbent announced his departure, added that he was ready to run for Congress no matter what happens with redistricting.
OHIO 15TH CD — Athens Mayor Steve Patterson told The Athens Messenger on Tuesday that he was thinking about running for the Democratic nomination in the upcoming special election to succeed Republican incumbent Steve Stivers.
IOWA 3RD CD — Former state Rep. Mary Ann Hanusa on Thursday became the first notable Republican to launch a campaign against Democratic Rep. Cindy Axne in this competitive seat in the Des Moines area.
Hanusa, who previously was the 2006 nominee for secretary of state, was elected to the legislature in 2010 in a seat in Council Bluffs near the Nebraska border. Hanusa had no trouble prevailing until 2018, when she won her final term 50-48 as Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds carried her 16th House District by a similar margin, and she retired in 2020.
LOUISANA 2ND CD — The League of Conservation Voters has announced that it is spending $400,000 on a TV and radio ad campaign in support of state Sen. Karen Carter Peterson ahead of the April 24 all-Democratic runoff. The group’s TV spot praises Peterson as someone who has “taken on polluters, fought for clean drinking water in schools, and clean energy jobs in every community.” It also reminds the audience that Peterson is endorsed by Stacey Abrams, Team Blue’s 2018 nominee for governor of Georgia.
CALIFORNIA 49TH CD — 2020 Republican nominee Brian Maryott has announced that he’ll be waging a third bid for Congress. Maryott, who is a former mayor of San Juan Capistrano, campaigned in the 2018 top-two primary for this seat, which includes southern Orange and northern San Diego Counties, but took just 3% of the vote. Maryott came far closer last year, though, and held Democratic Rep. Mike Levin to a 53-47 win as Joe Biden was carrying this seat by a wider 55-43 margin.
New York Times: “Research shows that a voting generation is typically shaped for life by what happens politically in their teen years and early 20s. What have teenagers taken away from all this?”
“The survey revealed a generation of soon-to-be voters who felt disillusioned by government and politics, and already hardened along political lines — something political scientists said was new for people this young. But it also revealed a significant share of teenagers who felt motivated to become involved themselves, whether out of inspiration or frustration.”
NEW MEXICO 1ST CD — Democrat Melanie Stansbury has gone up with her first negative TV ad for the June 1 special election days after Republican Mark Moores aired his opening anti-Stansbury commercial. The narrator declares, “Moores opposed every measure to help people during the pandemic, opposing sick leave for essentially workers, opposing relief checks for families.” The ad also declares that, while Moores stood against “President Biden’s American Rescue Plan,” he “took nearly $2 million in PPP money for his personal business.”
MINNESOTA 2ND CD — Marine veteran Tyler Kistner, who was the 2020 Republican nominee, announced Tuesday that he would seek a rematch against Democratic Rep. Angie Craig. Kistner is the first major Republican to announce a campaign against Craig in a state where neither party has control over redistricting.
Kistner spent much of last cycle looking like the underdog in a suburban Twin Cities seat that had backed Donald Trump 47-45 in 2016 but had moved to the left two years later. Kistner raised a serious amount of money in the final months, though, and the race took an unexpected turn in October when it was briefly postponed following the death of Legal Marijuana Party Now candidate Adam Weeks. Biden ultimately took the 2nd District 52-46, but Craig won by a smaller 48-46 margin, with Weeks posthumously taking 6%.
WASHINGTON 3RD CD — While The Seattle Times name-dropped former state Rep. Liz Pike back in January as a possible intra-party opponent for Republican Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler, who had just voted to impeach Trump, Pike has since donated $500 to evangelical author Heidi St. John’s campaign against the incumbent.
CALIFORNIA 21ST CD — While former Rep. TJ Cox announced in December that he’d seek a rematch against Republican incumbent David Valadao, the Democrat said Monday that he wouldn’t decide on any 2022 plans until he sees the new congressional map.
FLORIDA 20TH CD — Democratic state Rep. Bobby DuBose announced Tuesday that he would run in the still-unscheduled special election to succeed the late Rep. Alcee Hastings. DuBose, who serves as his party’s co-leader in the lower chamber, is a veteran elected official in the Fort Lauderdale area. The Florida Sun-Sentinel notes that another declared primary candidate, state Sen. Perry Thurston, also represents much of the same area as DuBose, so they could end up competing for the same base of geographic support.
Another Democrat, former Palm Beach County Commissioner Priscilla Taylor, also recently filed with the FEC, though she doesn’t appear to have publicly announced yet. Taylor was last on the ballot in 2019 when she took last place with 20% in the three-way race for mayor of West Palm Beach.