The Political Report – 3/5/21

A new Harvard University/Harris Insights poll finds 55% of Americans disapprove of President Biden’s executive orders on transgender athletes to “require schools to let biological boys who identify as girls to participate in girls sports, and vice versa.”

Also lagging, with 55% disapproval, was Biden’s decision to “reduce the deportation of those here illegally who have committed crimes such as DUIs that are not national security related.”

A new Quinnipiac poll in New York finds a majority of voters do not want Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) to resign in the wake of allegations of sexual harassment, 55% to 40%.

However, voters also say by a 59% to 36% say that they would not like to see Cuomo run for reelection in 2022.

When a Morning Consult poll left out that the coronavirus relief bill was drafted by Democrats, 77% approved of the legislation. Whey it was identified as a Democratic bill, 71% approved.

Wall Street Journal: “Nine of 10 Americans view China as a competitor or enemy and nearly half believe the U.S. should seek to limit China’s power, according to a Pew Research Center poll published on Thursday.”

“A Gallup poll, also released this week, put China’s unfavorable view among Americans at 79%, by far the worst reading since its polling began in 1979. Only Iran and North Korea scored worse.”

Washington Post: How Covid hastened the decline and fall of the U.S.-China relationship.

Amy Walter: “Democrats controlled the House for 40 straight years from 1954 until 1994. Democratic control of the Senate lasted uninterrupted for 25 years—from 1955 to 1980. From 1952 until 1988, Republicans won 7 of 10 presidential elections. This is the era in which many of my peers (and those who mentored me) were raised.”

“Since 1994, however, the House has flipped control three times (2006, 2010, 2018). Control of the Senate has changed political hands five times since 1994. In other words, when I came to Washington in 1991, most Republicans who worked in politics had never been in the House majority, and few Democrats had much experience working in a White House.”

“Today, most of those who work in politics don’t know of a time when control of the House, Senate and/or White House wasn’t up for grabs.”

Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball rates Virginia’s open-seat gubernatorial race starts as Leans Democratic, with former Gov. Terry McAuliffe (D) holding a significant edge to be his party’s nominee.

New Jersey’s gubernatorial race starts as Likely Democratic with Gov. Phil Murphy (D) heavily favored to win re-election.

Simone Pathe ranks the U.S. Senate seats most likely to change parties in 2022:  1) Pennsylvania (R-Toomey, retiring); 2) Georgia (D-Warnock, running); 3) Wisconsin (R-Johnson, undecided); 4) North Carolina (R-Burr, retiring); 5) Arizona (D-Kelly, running)

FiveThirtyEight: “Our current extended period of closely contested national elections atop stable and persistently uncontested state and local elections is truly unprecedented.”

“The last time we encountered anything similar, American party politics were substantively different and the precursors of impending realignment far clearer. But today, the factors locking in continued closely-balanced hyper-partisan politics are much stronger. And absent a major change to the rules of our elections, no realignment lies in sight. Instead, deepening partisan trench warfare will only worsen fights over the basic rules of voting, undermining the shared legitimacy of elections on which democracy depends.”

Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp, who was relentlessly attacked by Donald Trump for refusing to help overturn the presidential election, told Fox News that he would “absolutely” back Trump if he becomes the Republican nominee in 2024.

Former President Donald Trump fired off a rambling statement blaming everyone but himself for GOP election losses in 2020. He also insisted he doesn’t care what the Wall Street Journal writes, saying the editorial page is only concerned with fighting for globalist causes and RINOs and has “lost great credibility.”

Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo declined to rule out a run for the White House if former President Donald Trump does not seek the office in 2024, telling Fox News he was “always up for a fight.”

Rep. Dan Crenshaw (R-TX) told Hugh Hewitt that running for president in 2024 “doesn’t seem very tempting” and is “pretty much” ruling it out.

Said Crenshaw: “I think we’re tripping all over ourselves trying to figure out who’s going to be on the ticket in four years. I think everybody needs to chill just a little bit and let it happen as it will, because then something will emerge. But yeah, I would say pretty much, pretty much ruled it out.”

Politico: “The billionaire-turned-politician [Sen. Rick Scott] is trying to build his own national brand ahead of a potential run for president, but some early stumbles — including a recent pivot away from Trump — aren’t endearing him with the base.”

“Trump’s GOP is largely foreign to Scott, a former health care executive who embraces focus groups and adheres to the talking points of the day, not the off-the-cuff brashness Trump embraces. That, along with his well-known lack of charisma, could spell early trouble for Scott’s White House ambitions.”

“You’d better be spending a lot more time developing an economic agenda that benefits working people than re-litigating a lost presidential election. The question is, how long will it take the Republicans to figure out that driving out heretics rather than winning new converts is a losing strategy right now?” — GOP pollster Whit Ayres, quoted by the New York Times.

Facebook will finally allow advertisers to resume running political and social issue ads in the U.S. on Thursday, Axios reports.

The Washington Post has an eye-opening look at the big cuts fundraising firms take to help new candidates running for office go viral — many of who are running in deep-blue districts with little chance of winning.

An example: “By the end of Kim Klacik’s campaign, she would raise a staggering $8.3 million and pay nearly $3.7 million of it to Olympic Media… Klacik, now a frequent Fox News and Newsmax commentator, lost to Mfume in Maryland’s 7th Congressional District by more than 40 percentage points.”

NPR: “Manny Diaz is the person charged with picking up the pieces and rebuilding the state party as the new party chairman. The 66-year-old says when he campaigned for the job, he didn’t know how bad things were, especially with the party’s finances. After the election, Florida’s Democratic Party was in debt and couldn’t pay its bills. Employees found out their health insurance had been canceled. Diaz says that was his first challenge.”  Said Diaz: “It was like survival. And I’m talking about the kind of survival where you’re involved in counting paperclips.”

Emily Ekins: “But why are some Republican voters more reluctant to take surveys? As the director of polling at the Cato Institute, I, as well as other pollsters, am studying this and currently have two working theories for why this is happening.”

“First, Republicans are becoming more distrustful of institutions and society, and that may be extending to how they feel about pollsters. Second, suburban Republican college graduates are more likely to fear professional sanction for their views and are therefore self-censoring more, including in surveys.”

“There is nothing more dangerous than a reckless asshole who thinks he is smarter than everyone else.”  — Former House Speaker John Boehner, describing Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) in his new book, On the House.

Rep. Tom Emmer (R-MN), the chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee, said that is not helpful to the GOP’s goal of winning back a majority in the House to have former President Trump targeting incumbents in primary races, The Hill reports.

Said Emmer: “I imagine we’ll have a conversation at some point. He can do whatever he wants. Any citizen can do whatever he wants. But I’d tell him it’s better for us that we keep these people and have a majority that can be sustained going forward.”

Politico: “As Trump ramps up his revenge tour against the House Republicans who voted to impeach him, GOP lawmakers are sounding the alarm that his attempts to meddle in primaries could hurt the party’s efforts to win back the House next year, especially in critical swing districts in New York, Michigan and California. With just five seats between the GOP and the House majority, any one race could determine the balance.”

The Week: “Left-leaning and centrist news publications get fewer clicks on Facebook if they publish false stories. But far-right publications experience the opposite, nabbing nearly twice as much Facebook engagement on stories classified as misinformation.”

“The researchers at the Cybersecurity for Democracy project at New York University found that not only are far-right publications unique in that they are seemingly rewarded for posting faulty information, they are receiving by far the most engagement compared to slightly right, center, slightly left, and far-left publications in general.”

Delaware politics from a liberal, progressive and Democratic perspective. Keep Delaware Blue.

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