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The Polling Report – 11/11/2020

A new Reuters/Ipsos poll finds nearly 80% of Americans, including more than half of Republicans, recognize President-elect Joe Biden as the winner of the Nov. 3 election.

The latest election tallies show that Joe Biden is leading Donald Trump by 5,060,175 votes, Ballot Access News reports.

That is a larger number than the margin between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney in 2012 which was 4,982,296 votes.

Nationwide, Joe Biden is faring about 2.4 percentage points better than the average Democratic nominee for House seats, according to an estimate by Sean Trende.

Rep. Tony Cárdenas (D-CA) is running for chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, as Democrats look for new leadership after failing to expand their House majority in last week’s election, Axios reports.

The New Yorker interviews Nate Cohn on the polling mishaps in the 2020 election.

His biggest surprise: “The Hispanic vote. The swing towards Trump in Hispanic areas across the country is extraordinary. It was hinted at in the pre-election polls. The polls always showed the President faring better among nonwhite, and particularly Hispanic, voters than he did four years ago, but the magnitude of the shift was way beyond expectations. We learned that early in the night in Miami-Dade County, where no one had the President doing as well as he did. And it has proven true, as far as I can tell, basically everywhere in the country among Latino voters, to varying degrees. It’s true down-ballot. It’s not like this was just about the President. And I think it’s a huge and important political story.”

“And the second thing that really surprised me is the white, rural, Midwestern vote. The pre-election polls said that Joe Biden was doing much better than Hillary Clinton was four years ago among white voters without a degree. And those gains simply did not materialize. The results looked quite a bit like 2016 across most of rural America, and there were many areas where Donald Trump did better in white working-class areas than he did in 2016.”

As the vote tallies from the 2020 elections are finishing up in various states, there will be an urge to explain what happened. But since many of these takes will rely on exit polls, it’s probably best to be cautious.

There were two competing exit polls this year — from Edison Research and AP Votecast — but their results diverge significantly, as this slide from Bruce Mehlman shows:

So while it’s clear there were significant problems with both national and state polls throughout the election cycle, it appears that even the exit polls are flawed as well.

“President Trump is planning to form a so-called leadership political action committee, a federal fund-raising vehicle that will potentially let him retain his hold on the Republican Party even when he is out of office,” the New York Times reports.

“Such committees can accept donations of up to $5,000 per donor per year — far less than the donation limits for the committees formed by Mr. Trump’s campaign and the Republican National Committee — but a leadership PAC could accept donations from an unlimited number of people. It could also accept donations from other political action committees.”

“In the wake of the election, President Trump’s supporters have been peppered with texts and emails asking for donations to support legal battles contesting his loss to President-elect Joe Biden,” the Washington Post reports.

“But details outlined in the fine print show that a small portion of the donations would go toward these ‘election defense’ funds to support recounts and lawsuits in several swing states.”

“The majority of each donation goes to a political action committee called Save America, which Trump set up in recent days and will allow him to support candidates and maintain political influence in Washington even after leaving office.”

“Jaime Harrison, the South Carolina Democrat who shattered fundraising records and became a national star in his unsuccessful bid to defeat Republican Sen. Lindsey O. Graham, is interested in becoming the next chairman of the Democratic National Committee — and says that a powerful ally thinks he could do the job,” the Washington Post reports.

How about we go with Stacy Abrams, who actually demonstrated an ability to win.

Pollster David Shor explains to Vox why the public polling was off this year:

“So the basic story is that, particularly after Covid-19, Democrats got extremely excited, and had very high rates of engagement. They were donating at higher rates, etc., and this translated to them also taking surveys, because they were locked at home and didn’t have anything else to do. There’s some pretty clear evidence that that’s nearly all of it: it was partisan non-response. Democrats just started taking a bunch of surveys when they were called by pollsters, while Republicans did not.”

Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R-GA) may have taken advantage of a loophole in President Trump’s tax bill to fully write off the cost of a private jet she bought to use on the campaign trail, Salon reports.

“Donald Trump Jr. and Kimberly Guilfoyle are making moves to expand their influence at the Republican National Committee,” CNN reports. “Some sources say they may seek to take over the party structure themselves.”

Republican officials behind a lawsuit alleging poll workers incorrectly rejected votes cast in person in Arizona on Election Day are only challenging 180 votes while Joe Biden leads Donald Trump by more than 14,000 ballots in the state, the Arizona Republic reports.

The 2016 presidential race surprised many because the state polls systematically understated Donald Trump’s support. Despite attempts by pollsters to make changes to their methodology to correct the error — such as weighting for education and accounting for undecided voters — the state polls were off by a nearly identical amount in 2020.

This is most clearly seen in The Upshot’s “If the polls were as wrong as they were in 2016” chart which actually nailed Joe Biden’s one-point-or-less leads in Pennsylvania, Georgia and Arizona. Of the battleground states, only Florida had an even bigger error.

But while national polls were generally correct in 2016, they were also way off this year. Biden looks likely to win the national popular vote by roughly five percentage points. However, no major national live-interview telephone survey showed him leading by less than eight percentage points over the final month of the race.

“Democrats failed to pick up any state legislative chambers this November, and they could face the consequences of that for the next decade,” the Washington Post reports.

“That’s because next year, states will redraw electoral maps for congressional and state legislative districts. It’s something the Constitution mandates every decade based on new census data.”

“In many states, it’s up to politicians in state legislatures to do that. Republicans controlled the mapmaking process in most states after a stellar 2010 election and were able to draw state and congressional districts that made it harder for Democrats to regain power at all levels. After a stronger-than-expected performance this November, Republicans will control map drawing in a majority of chambers next year, too, although to a slightly lesser degree.”

President Trump’s top confidants –including White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows, RNC Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel, and adviser Corey Lewandowski — have all said in private that they’re pessimistic about success in Trump’s lawsuits in several states that are looking to overturn election results, the Washington Post reports.

One person with knowledge of the discussions said that Trump will carry on fighting, but even he acknowledges that it will be difficult to succeed.

Said the adviser: “He is all over the place. It changes from hour to hour.”

Delaware politics from a liberal, progressive and Democratic perspective. Keep Delaware Blue.

1 comment on “The Polling Report – 11/11/2020

  1. As predicted Trump is playing every game in the book and inventing new ones to stay in the White House, anyone who supports these game is a traitor trying to overturn the duly elected president. Hope to see Trump removed by force from the White house. We, as a nation, need more then a few lessons at this point.

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