A new University of Texas Dallas poll finds Joe Biden leading Donald Trump national in the presidential race, 56% to 44%.
A new USA Today/Suffolk poll finds Joe Biden leading Donald Trump nationally, 52% to 44%.
Also interesting: “Nearly six in 10 Americans disapprove of Trump’s decision to continue to hold large rallies during the pandemic, according to the poll, while nearly 64% approve of Biden’s decision to jettison big events in favor of much smaller gatherings.”
Nate Silver: “After a surprisingly sluggish weekend for polling, the floodgates have opened, with a mix of high-quality polls, low-quality polls and pretty much everything in between. And although there are some outliers in both directions, they tell a fairly consistent story, overall: A steady race nationally, perhaps with some gains for Joe Biden in the Midwest.”
Cook Political Report: “Democrats remain the clear favorites to take back the Senate with just days to go until Election Day. A lack of tightening in the presidential race as President Trump continues to be a drag downballot is set to doom many Republican incumbents. At this point, many GOP strategists just hope to keep their losses to a minimum and prevent a blue tidal wave.”
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball moved both U.S. Senate races in Georgia to Toss Up.
- NATIONAL–University of Texas Dallas–Biden 56–Trump 44
- NATIONAL–YouGov–Biden 53–Trump 44
- NATIONAL–Morning Consult–Biden 52–Trump 43
- NATIONAL–HarrisX–Biden 53–Trump 47
- NATIONAL–Harris Poll–Biden 54–Trump 46
- NATIONAL–LA Times/USC–Biden 54–Trump 42
- NATIONAL–Suffolk–Biden 52–Trump 44
- FLORIDA–Quinnipiac–Biden 45–Trump 42
- FLORIDA–Monmouth–Biden 51–Trump 45
- FLORIDA–NBC News/Marist–Biden 51–Trump 47
- FLORIDA–CitizenData–Biden 50–Trump 45
- FLORIDA–Harris Poll–Biden 50–Trump 47
- GEORGIA–Public Policy Polling–Biden 48–Trump 46
- GEORGIA–CitizenData–Biden 48–Trump 44
- IOWA–Quinnipiac–Trump 47–Biden 46
- MAINE–SurveyUSA–Biden 53–Trump 40
- MAINE 2nd–SurveyUSA–Biden 49–Trump 46
- MICHIGAN–CitizenData–Biden 50–Trump 41
- NEVADA–Gravis–Biden 50–Trump 44
- NEW HAMPSHIRE–American Research Group–Biden 58–Trump 39
- NEW HAMPSHIRE–Univ. of New Hampshire–Biden 53–Trump 45
- NEW HAMPSHIRE–Univ. of Massachusetts Lowell–Biden 53–Trump 43
- NEW HAMPSHIRE–St. Anselm College–Biden 52–Trump 44
- NEW JERSEY–Rutgers Univ.–Biden 61–Trump 37
- NORTH CAROLINA–New York Times/Siena–Biden 48–Trump 45
- NORTH CAROLINA–Univ. of Massachusetts Lowell–Biden 48–Trump 48
- NORTH CAROLINA–CitizenData–Biden 50–Trump 44
- NORTH CAROLINA–Harris Poll–Biden 49–Trump 48
- OHIO–Quinnipiac–Biden 48–Trump 43
- OHIO–Gravis–Trump 49–Biden 47
- PENNSYLVANIA–Quinnipiac–Biden 51–Trump 44
- PENNSYLVANIA–Harris Poll–Biden 51–Trump 46
- TEXAS–RMG Research–Trump 50–Biden 46
- TEXAS–Univ. of Massachusetts Lowell–Trump 48–Biden 47
- TEXAS–CitizenData–Biden 49–Trump 45
- VIRGINIA–Virginia Commonwealth Univ.–Biden 51–Trump 39
Wall Street Journal: “Polling suggests that if the election were held today, it would show the largest gap on record for a presidential election–a 15-percentage-point divide.”
Underscoring the true uncertainty in Trumpworld, Ashley Parker asked a Trump adviser for their gut sense on what will happen on Election Day. The response: “If you put a gun to my head, I’d say, ‘Shoot.’”
Priorities USA, the Democratic super PAC, just finished a series of polls across key battleground states: Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Most interesting were the questions about President Trump’s blitz of rallies in recent days across these states. It turns out, they’re not that popular:
It’s even worse if you just look at persuadable voters. With numbers like these, it’s hard to see how holding big campaign rallies in the midst of a pandemic are going to help Trump in these must-win states.
First Read points out the direct correlation between a sitting president’s job rating and his ballot position:
- In 1984, Ronald Reagan’s job rating was 58%; he got 58.8% of the vote.
- In 1992, George H.W. Bush’s rating was 36%; he got 37.4% of the vote.
- In 1996, Bill Clinton’s approval was 56%; he got 49.2% in that three-way race.
- In 2004, George W. Bush’s approval was 49%; he got 50.7% of the vote.
- And in 2012, Barack Obama’s approval was 49%; he got 51.1% of the vote.
President Trump? His job rating in our most recent national NBC/WSJ poll was 44%.
“Donald Trump won the presidency with 46 percent of the popular vote. His approval rating, according to Gallup, has never hit 50 percent. He remains under 50 percent in national polling averages,” Politico reports.
“The president’s inability to capture a majority of support sheds light on his extraordinary attempts to limit the number of votes cast across the battleground state map — a massive campaign-within-a-campaign to maximize Trump’s chances of winning a contest in which he’s all but certain to earn less than 50 percent of the vote…”
“Never before in modern presidential politics has a candidate been so reliant on wide-scale efforts to depress the vote as Trump.”
“The Supreme Court on Wednesday refused a plea from Pennsylvania Republicans to put their request to halt a three-day extension of the deadline for receiving absentee ballots on an extraordinarily fast track,” the New York Times reports. “The move meant that the court would not consider the case, which could have yielded a major ruling on voting procedure, until after Election Day.”
Rick Hasen: “Justices Alito, Gorsuch, and Thomas issued a separate statement saying that time was too late to review things now, but strongly stating a belief that counting the later ballots would be unconstitutional and that there could well be review after the election of the consideration of these ballots.”
“The Supreme Court will allow absentee ballots in North Carolina to be received and counted up to nine days after Election Day, in a win for Democrats,” the AP reports.
In North Carolina, the Supreme Court, “by a 5-3 vote Wednesday, refused to disturb a decision by the State Board of Elections to lengthen the period from three to nine days because of the coronavirus pandemic, pushing back the deadline to Nov. 12.”
“President Trump’s campaign in the crucial battleground of Pennsylvania is pursuing a three-pronged strategy that would effectively suppress mail-in votes in the state, moving to stop the counting of absentee votes before Election Day, pushing to limit how late mail-in ballots can be accepted and intimidating Pennsylvanians trying to vote early,” the New York Times reports.
Eliza Griswald: In Pennsylvania, Republicans may only need to stall to win.
Multiple attendees of President Trump’s rally in Tampa passed out due to the intense heat, as a truck blasted water at the crowd, NBC News reports. The event comes two days after seven people who attended Trump’s rally in Omaha were hospitalized due to exposure to near-freezing temperatures.
“Trailing in the polls and with little time left to change the trajectory or closing themes of the presidential race, President Trump has spent the final days of the campaign complaining that the coronavirus crisis is getting too much coverage — and openly musing about losing,” the Washington Post reports.
“Trump has publicly lamented about what a loss would mean, spoken longingly of riding off into the sunset and made unsubstantiated claims that voter fraud could cost him the election. He has sarcastically threatened to fire state officials if he doesn’t win and excoriated his rival Joe Biden as someone it would be particularly embarrassing to lose to.”
Pittsburgh Post-Gazette: “Potentially thousands of mail ballots requested by Butler County voters appear to be lost… and the U.S. Postal Service has been asked to immediately investigate what happened to them.”
“Nearly 40,000 registered voters in the county requested mail ballots. So far, only 24% of them have been returned to the county, by far the lowest rate among the state’s 67 counties. The county with the next-lowest return rate, Fayette, has received 50% of requested ballots.”
“Amid a record surge in early voting, millions of mail ballots remained unreturned Wednesday, prompting a flurry of warnings from election officials that ballots sent via the U.S. Postal Service at this point may not arrive in time to be counted,” the Washington Post reports.
“The outlook for about a dozen competitive Senate contests remains closely tied to President Trump’s standing in the final days of the race, with polls indicating few people plan to split their vote between a Democrat and a Republican,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
“In most of the states where polls show Mr. Trump leading, they also show the GOP senate candidate leading. Likewise, where polls show former Vice President Joe Biden in front, they show the Democratic Senate candidate in front. In only a handful of states does ticket splitting look to potentially be a deciding factor.”
New York Times: “They may be on opposite sides of the partisan divide, but Texas Republicans and Democrats alike believe the long-awaited moment has arrived: The state is a true presidential battleground, and either candidate could prevail next week.”
“Although a Democrat has not carried Texas since 1976, recent public and private polls suggest a highly competitive race, with some surveys showing Mr. Biden up narrowly and others showing Mr. Trump enjoying a small lead.”
“Yet even as leading figures in both parties urge their respective presidential nominees to take Texas seriously, the campaigns are still reluctant to spend precious remaining time and money there. Neither Mr. Trump nor Mr. Biden is expected to appear in the state before the election, the president has not spent a cent on television commercials, and until this week Mr. Biden had resisted advertising in Texas’ two largest markets, Houston and Dallas-Fort Worth.”
Associated Press: “President Trump and Joe Biden are set to chase votes in Florida, a state all but essential to the Republican’s pathway to another term as both nominees turn their focus to encouraging voters to turn out on Election Day.
“More than 73 million Americans have already voted, absentee or by mail, and Trump and Biden are trying to energize the millions more who will vote in person on Tuesday. While the Election Day vote traditionally favors Republicans and early votes tend toward Democrats, the coronavirus pandemic, which has killed more than 227,000 Americans, has injected new uncertainty about the makeup of the electorate.”
Miami Herald: Florida Democrats look to increase Black voter turnout.
Georgia Senate candidate Jon Ossoff (D) launched a blistering attack on Sen. David Perdue’s (R) record on health care and the coronavirus pandemic at a televised debate.
Said Ossoff: “It’s not just that you’re a crook… you’re attacking the health of those you represent.”
He added: “You did say COVID-19 was no deadlier than the flu, you did say there would be no uptick in cases. All the while, you were looking after your own assets, and your own portfolio. And you did vote four times to end protections for pre-existing conditions.”
The Economist endorses Joe Biden for president.
“The country that elected Donald Trump in 2016 was unhappy and divided. The country he is asking to re-elect him is more unhappy and more divided. After almost four years of his leadership, politics is even angrier than it was and partisanship even less constrained. Daily life is consumed by a pandemic that has registered almost 230,000 deaths amid bickering, buck-passing and lies. Much of that is Mr Trump’s doing, and his victory on November 3rd would endorse it all…”
“However, our bigger dispute with Mr Trump is over something more fundamental. In the past four years he has repeatedly desecrated the values, principles and practices that made America a haven for its own people and a beacon to the world.”
President Trump offered a not-very warm welcome to Sen. Martha McSally (R) on Wednesday at his campaign rally in Arizona, NBC News reports.
Said Trump: “Martha, just come up fast. Fast. Fast. Come on. Quick. You got one minute! One minute, Martha! They don’t want to hear this, Martha. Come on. Let’s go. Quick, quick, quick. Come on. Let’s go.”
Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R-GA) said Wednesday that she doesn’t disagree with anything President Trump has said or done, 11 Alive reports.
“Earlier this month during a debate, Loeffler was asked if President Trump had ever said or done anything she’d disagreed with. Her answer was emphatically ‘no.’”
“Loeffler told reporters Wednesday that she doesn’t know anything about an Access Hollywood tape made in 2005 in which Trump described sexually assaulting women. This came up again after Loeffler said she doesn’t disagree with anything Trump has said or done.”
Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) said during a debate on Wednesday that she does not think that systemic racism is a problem in the state, CNN reports.
Said Collins: “I do not believe systemic racism is a problem in the state of Maine.”