Yesterday, we reviewed the Safe Races. Today, we will review the Competitive Races and make some predictions and show you some maps. Now, just because these races are classified as competitive, that doesn’t mean that either candidate in the race can win. If that were the case, the race would be labeled a Toss Up. No, they are labeled competitive because at least both candidates are credible and running actual campaigns. And there are some races listed below where I can imagine an underdog campaign actually winning given the right circumstances. Not likely, not probable, but not outside the realm of possibility.
For example, in the 14th RD, in a Republican year, I can see Craig Pugh beating the soon to be retired Bruce Ennis. But it is a Democratic year, so it is not likely. If there was not a pandemic on, limiting retail campaign opportunities, I can see Jordan Nally really making a race of it against Gerald Brady. The same could be true of Tripp Keister, if he was actually in Delaware and not down in Florida being a baseball manager. If he was here, and there was no pandemic, and if it was a Republican year, then his race with Eric Morrison could be a toss up. If Jeff Cragg was someone else, and it were a Republican year, then Krista Griffith would have a Toss Up race. But he is not, it is not, and she will win reelection.
And the simple truth is, this is a Democratic wave year. Democratic incumbents up and down the state are going to win in Democratic Districts. And, as we will discuss tomorrow, Democratic candidates in Toss Up districts have a very good shot to win. Conversely, Republican incumbents in safe Republican districts should have no problems winning reelection. Their races might be closer, but they will hang on.
So here are my predictions in each of the Competitive Races. Tomorrow, we will discuss the Toss Ups, and some of the Kent County Levy Court and Row races that I have no clue about.
THE STATE SENATE
- 1st SD–Sarah McBride over Steve Washington
- 9th SD–Jack Walsh over Todd Ruckle
- 13th SD–Marie Pinkney over Alexander Homich
- 14th SD–Bruce Ennis over Craig Pugh
There are three remaining Senate races on the ballot in this election, all held by Republicans: the 5th, held by Republican incumbent Senator Cathy Cloutier; the 7th, held by Republican Senator Anthony DelCollo, and the 15th, held by Republican Senator Dave Lawson. The rest of the light colored seats on the map below are Senate seats not up for election this year: the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 6th, 10th, 11th, 16th, 17th, 18th and 21st SDs.
THE STATE HOUSE
- 4th RD–Gerald Brady over Jordan Nally
- 7th RD–Larry Lambert over James Haubrich and Scott Gesty
- 12th RD–Krista Griffith over Jeffrey Cragg
- 15th RD–Valerie Longhurst over Michael Higgin and Amy Merlino
- 26th RD–Madinah Wilson Anton over Timothy Conrad
- 27th RD–Eric Morrison over Tripp Keister and William Hinds
- 29th RD–William Bush over Robin Hayes
- 30th RD–Shannon Morris over Chuck Groce
- 31st RD–Sean Lynn over Richard Harpster
- 32nd RD–Andria Bennett over Cheryl Precourt
- 33rd RD–Charles Postles over Rachael King
- 34th RD–Lyndon Yearick over Adewunmi Kuforji
- 35th RD–Jesse Vanderwende over Darrynn Harris
- 36th RD–Bryan Shupe over Greg Fuller
As you can see below, that leaves us with four Toss Up House races, three of which are held by Republican incumbents and one is an Open Seat but is currently held by a Democrat.