We offered our endorsements in several races yesterday. Now some predictions. This is where our subjective wishes and hope meet cold hard objective reality. And I hope I am wrong in some of these.
Governor (D) — John Carney. You can’t defeat an incumbent without a credible challenger and without a campaign. Plus, Democrats generally give the Governor high marks for his actions during the COVID Pandemic in following the silence and ignoring the screams of the Trumpists.
Governor (R) — Either Julianne Murray or Scott Walker — If signs could vote, Walker would win all the offices, everywhere. And Republicans have proven that they are just insane enough to make him their nominee. But they also liked Murray’s insane ramblings about losing freedom by being forced to wear a mask, and Murray has way more money. I can’t decide between them, but the nominee will be one of these two. What a win for Jane Brady. LOL.
Insurance Commissioner (D) — Trinidad Navarro. Once again, you can’t defeat an incumbent without a credible challenger and without a campaign. Navarro could have been beaten if COVID didn’t shorten and restrict the campaign.
U.S. Senate (D) — Chris Coons — I am looking to see if Scarane does better than Kerri Evelyn Harris in 2018. Harris won 35.4% of the vote, or 29,406 votes. My bet is that she won’t. And that is the result of what will likely be a low turnout primary and the COVID pandemic limiting retail campaigning. Also because Coons has been blanketing the airways and was prominent during the Democratic Convention.
U.S. Senate (R) — Lauren Witzke — Lauren is what would happen if Donald Trump and Christine O’Donnell had a child. Pardon me a moment…..
She is a former Mexican cartel drug mule (I am not making that up) who now totes around an AR15 wherever she goes. So of course she will win the Republican nomination.
U.S. Congress (R) — Lee Murphy — Murphy lost to Scott Walker in 2018, but his opponent this time is a convicted gay basher who doesn’t seem to be running that visible a campaign (unlike Walker with his signs everywhere). This time I say Murphy wins.
New Castle County Executive — Matt Meyer — The real Democrat will win and I think it won’t be close. It will be a repudiation to FOP “Democrats” like Nicole Poore and Nancy Willing.
New Castle County Council President — Ciro Poppiti — I think the anti-Poppiti robocall backfired on Karen Hartley Nagle. Poppiti wins the race by a margin of 45-30-25 over KHN and Monique Johns, respectively.
State Senator 1 (D) — Sarah McBride — Easy win over Joseph McCole. 80-20 or 90-10.
State Senator 5 (D) — Kyle Evans Gay — Gay has had the most visible campaign, though Eric Levin has made a fight of it. Denise Bowers is an after thought. I think the margin will be over 60 for Kyle, and then 25-30 for Levin, and whatever’s left for Bowers.
State Senator 13 (D) — Dave McBride — I think this will be very close, but McBride will pull it out at the end. This is the race most affected by the Pandemic. If we lived in normal times, Marie would win. I hope I am wrong.
State Senator 14 (D) — Bruce Ennis — This race is governed by the rule that you cannot beat an incumbent with two challengers. If this were a one on one race, it would be more competitive.
State Senator 14 (R) — Craig Pugh – Pugh has the money and endorsements.
State Representative 4 (D) — Gerald Brady — I can’t help but think that we might be surprised by this race tonight. It has flown under the radar all year, but I don’t think Amy Solomon pull it out. We will see though.
State Representative 7 (D) — Larry Lambert — Larry barely lost in a five way race to Ray Seigfried in 2018. Now in a one on one race, he has campaigned tirelessly. I think Lambert ends up winning 55-45.
State Representative 8 (D) — Matthew W. Powell — Powell was endorsed by current and retiring Representative Quinn Johnson recently, and I think that will be enough to win it for him.
State Representative 10 (D) — Sean Matthews — Why is Matthews being challenged again? When a primary challenger can’t answer that question, he ain’t going to win. Matthews in a walk, 70-30.
State Representative 26 (D) — John Viola — Again, you cannot beat an incumbent with two challengers. BUT… if the exception to that rule were to happen, it would be this race. Madinah has run an excellent campaign and she could very well win, but I think Viola holds on barely, to the tune of 45-40-15.
State Representative 27 (D) — Eric Morrison — Earl Jaques has run a petty and nasty campaign and it has turned off most Democrats I talk to, even those who were not predisposed to voting for Morrison. Combine that with Morrison’s stellar campaign, and I think Eric wins 60-40. I am going to quote Mitch Crane here from a post he made on this race: “So sad that incumbents in trouble so often resort to ridiculous accusations against a challenger. I always thought Earl Jaques was a “ good guy” just afraid to vote for a woman’s right to choose and marriage equality. It was a struggle for Delaware Stonewall to endorse his opponent, Eric Morrison. Watching Eric’s aggressive issue oriented campaigns and Earl’s slanderous campaign, funded almost totally by outside interests and lobbyists, confirms we made the right decision. Eric Morrison is the clear choice on Tuesday.”
State Representative 34 (D) — Robert Haynes — Who the hell knows. This is a complete guess.
New Castle County Council 12 (D) — Kevin Caneco — Another young upstart challenging an entrenched incumbent who has lost touch with the community. Caneco also wins by something like 60-40.
New Castle County Clerk of the Peace (D) — Lisa Darrah — These ROW offices should not be up for election. This should be an appointment made by the County Executive, as should the Recorder of Deeds and the Register of Wills, and just like the State Treasurer and Insurance Commissioner should be appointed on the state level. You can say that you didn’t like the shenanigans that incumbent Ken Boulden performed in playing musical chairs with this seat in trying to get his deputy an uncontested shot at the office. But people voted for Ken Boulden for years, and I am sure most will vote for his deputy. On that basis alone, I think Darrah wins. I have no idea by what margin though.
Wilmington Mayor (D) — Mike Purzycki — Two challengers means the incumbent wins. Plus, one of those challengers is corrupt and the other is not mayoral material. So by default, Purzycki wins.
As for the rest of the races, with some council primaries involving three or more candidates, it is just impossible to predict, so we are not going to try.