The Campaign Report – Pollingpalooza

So we have a bunch of new polls this morning.













“The door isn’t closed on President Trump’s reelection, but time is running short. Labor Day once marked the start of concerted general-election campaigning, but it comes with a far greater sense of urgency this year for Trump. Because of coronavirus-related changes in election administration across the country, more Americans than ever are expected to cast their ballots early this year, whether by mail or in person,” Politico reports.

“And Trump, who didn’t get the election-changing convention bounce he hoped for, still trails Joe Biden by a significant margin among voters nationally — and by varying, but mostly smaller, gaps in many of the key battleground states.”

Politico: Trump’s lost summer.

“Money concerns are very real for President Trump’s campaign — an unusual predicament for a sitting president, and one that worries veteran Republican operatives, with Trump so far behind in swing states as the race climaxes,” Axios reports.

“The campaign’s view is that Trump will get his message out, and he depends less on paid media than normal politicians. But the number of states Trump has to worry about has actually grown, and Joe Biden’s massive August fundraising haul has given his campaign a lift as early voting begins.”

The AP reports the Trump campaign had pulled most TV ads over the previous week, ceding the airwaves to Biden, who was outspending Trump by more than 10 to 1.

New York Times: “The light television spending and advertising blackouts in some key states have mystified allies.”

New York Times: “Money was supposed to have been one of the great advantages of incumbency for President Trump, much as it was for President Barack Obama in 2012 and George W. Bush in 2004. After getting outspent in 2016, Mr. Trump filed for re-election on the day of his inauguration — earlier than any other modern president — betting that the head start would deliver him a decisive financial advantage this year.”

“It seemed to have worked. His rival, Joe Biden, was relatively broke when he emerged as the presumptive Democratic nominee this spring, and Mr. Trump and the Republican National Committee had a nearly $200 million cash advantage.”

“Five months later, Mr. Trump’s financial supremacy has evaporated. Of the $1.1 billon his campaign and the party raised from the beginning of 2019 through July, more than $800 million has already been spent. Now some people inside the campaign are forecasting what was once unthinkable: a cash crunch with less than 60 days until the election.”

The prospect of a vaccine to shield Americans from coronavirus infection emerged Monday as a point of contention in the White House race as President Trump accused Democrats of “disparaging” for political gain a vaccine he repeatedly has said could be available before the election, the AP reports.

Said Trump: “It’s so dangerous for our country, what they say, but the vaccine will be very safe and very effective.”

Ron Brownstein: “Exactly eight weeks before Election Day, Biden has strong opportunities to recapture states that President Donald Trump won in 2016 both in the Rust Belt and the Sun Belt. But public and private polls consistently show that Biden is running slightly better in the former group of battlegrounds — centered on Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — than the latter, which include North Carolina, Florida and Arizona.”

“That’s something of a surprise, because Trump has focused his message and agenda so precisely on the priorities and resentments of the older, rural and non-college Whites who dominate the electorate in Rust Belt states, while the Sun Belt states are adding many more of the younger non-White voters who increasingly compose the Democrats’ base.”

Politico profiles eight critical battlegrounds where the 2020 election will be won or lost: Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

“The selection of these swing states is based on a variety of factors — polling, demography, past and recent election history, voter registration, interviews with state and local party officials, strategists and pollsters. The individual campaigns have also revealed the places they are prioritizing through staffing, resource allocation, TV and radio advertising and candidate visits.”

Barack Obama posted a video conversation with Sen. Kamala Harris “to share a few tips about serving alongside our friend Joe Biden.”

“President Trump has discussed spending as much as $100 million of his own money on his re-election campaign, if necessary, to beat Democratic nominee Joe Biden,” Bloomberg reports.

“The billionaire president has talked about the idea with multiple people, though he hasn’t yet committed to any self-funding, according to people briefed on internal deliberations. Though Trump personally contributed $66 million to his 2016 campaign, it would be unprecedented for an incumbent president to put his own money toward winning a second term.”

Trump took to Twitter to defend against allegations his campaign may be running out of money:

“Because of the China Virus, my Campaign, which has raised a lot of money, was forced to spend in order to counter the Fake News reporting about the way we handled it (China Ban, etc.). We did, and are doing, a GREAT job, and have a lot of money left over, much more than 2016… Like I did in the 2016 Primaries, if more money is needed, which I doubt it will be, I will put it up!”

“Joe Biden’s campaign is expanding its footprint in Georgia with 10 additional staffers for the final stretch of the presidential race,” the Atlanta Journal Constitution reports.

New York Times: “Biden’s Zoom fundraisers typically took less than 90 minutes of the candidate’s time, could raise millions of dollars and cost almost nothing… Trump has almost entirely refused to hold such fund-raisers. Aides say he doesn’t like them.”

“President Trump’s campaign is currently planning to spend more money on advertising in Minnesota than in either Wisconsin or Michigan during the final stretch of the 2020 race, a significant shift in strategy as its path to 270 electoral votes narrows,” McClatchy reports.

“Trump’s campaign is slated to pour more than $14 million into Minnesota between the beginning of September through Election Day, compared to $12.6 million in Michigan and $8.3 million in Wisconsin, according to Advertising Analytics, a media tracking firm. The sums include ads booked to run on TV, radio and online.”

“It’s a reversal from the previous three months, when the president’s campaign had devoted more money to Michigan and Wisconsin, two Upper Midwest battlegrounds that Trump surprisingly carried in 2016, but where he has seen his standing slip.”

“President Trump’s reelection campaign is paying to replace sod on the White House South Lawn and Rose Garden after damage to the greenery late last month from large crowds and heavy equipment used for Republican National Convention festivities,” the Washington Post reports.

“Trump’s unprecedented decision to stage overtly political events on public property — which drew complaints that the Trumps were overtly using ‘the people’s house’ for personal gain — continues to reverberate nearly two weeks later, as work crews re-sod grass and make other repairs.”

Boston City Councilor Michelle Wu (D) called Boston Mayor Marty Walsh (D) to tell him she would challenge him in a Democratic primary next year. Walsh then called the Boston Globe to preempt her public announcement.

Washington Post: “For the president and his top supporters, it was a campaign push brimming with disinformation — disseminating falsehoods and trafficking in obfuscation at a rapid clip, through the use of selectively edited videos, deceptive retweets and false statements.”

“The slew of false and misleading tweets and videos stood in contrast to the approach taken by Biden, the former vice president, who in 2019 took a pledge promising not to participate in the spread of disinformation over social media, including rejecting the use of ‘deep fake’ videos.”

“Trump has built a political career around falsehoods, issuing more than 20,000 false or misleading statements during the first three-plus years of his presidency. But many experts said the onslaught of the disinformation efforts by Trump and his team in the late weeks of the campaign make the deception particularly difficult to combat, not to mention dangerous to the country’s democratic institutions.”

Delaware politics from a liberal, progressive and Democratic perspective. Keep Delaware Blue.

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