The Campaign Report – Large Lead Confirmed

A new Garin-Hart-Yang Research poll finds Joe Biden leading Donald Trump, 53% to 41%, with a sample whose self-reported 2016 vote is 48% Clinton, 47% Trump.

Also important: 56% say it time for a change and someone new, while just 36% say Trump deserves four more years as president.

Aaron Blake: Why Trump’s bad poll numbers are worse than in 2016.

Nate Cohn explains that every high-quality national poll with proper education weighting had Joe Biden leading Donald Trump two months ago by an average of 6.2%.

And nearly every one of them have him leading by more today, by an average of 10.2%.

Vox notes that Biden’s lead is not only larger than Hillary Clinton’s in 2016, “it’s more secure.”

Jonathan Last: “Biden has the biggest, most durable lead of any presidential challenger ever. He’s more personally popular than Trump. The wrong-track number is at -38. And there are only 20 weekends left before Election Day.”

Washington Post analysis of data collected by three vote-by-mail states found that officials identified just 372 possible cases of double voting or voting on behalf of deceased people out of about 14.6 million votes cast by mail in the 2016 and 2018 general elections, or 0.0025 percent.

“With his call for the military to be deployed in U.S. cities gripped by protests over police brutality, Sen. Tom Cotton has found himself in a familiar position: Rallying conservatives, enraging Democrats and further raising his national profile amid growing speculation over his future ambitions,” the Washington Post reports.

“The Arkansas Republican has been minted as a political up-and-comer since he entered Congress in 2013, yet he cemented his status as a hero on the right when an op-ed he authored for the New York Times on using the military to deter looting and violent unrest amid the demonstrations provoked an unusual public furor among its journalists, who called it inflammatory. The uproar led to the ouster of the newspaper’s powerful opinions editor.”

“That turmoil at the Times has only emboldened Cotton, 43, a relatively junior senator who has nonetheless demonstrated his influence in the Trump era by having the president’s ear and embracing key tenets of Trumpism that have, at times, put the men at odds with some in their own party.”

“With their boss growing increasingly agitated with the state of his re-election campaign and with the efforts of Republican critics to undermine it, President Trump’s team hatched a plan. They’d run a series of hard-hitting ads and place them on networks that they knew the president and congressional Republicans would watch,” the Daily Beast reports.

“And so, over the past month, the Trump campaign has spent slightly more than $400,000 on cable news ads in the Washington, D.C., area, buying time largely on Fox News but with some smaller buys on CNN and MSNBC as well… The ads began running in late May and are scheduled through June 23. It is, on a purely electoral level, a remarkably quixotic use of campaign cash. The purchases have no real shot of moving D.C., Maryland, or Virginia into the Trump column.”

New York Times: “Joe Biden’s campaign has moved to capitalize on the enormous energy reflected in the nationwide protests against racism and police brutality with the biggest online spending of his candidacy, pouring nearly $5 million into Facebook ads alone in recent days.”

“Mr. Biden spent about the same amount on Facebook over just a few days last week as he had in the first 10 months of his candidacy. On Thursday alone, he spent $1.6 million on the platform, more than triple President Trump’s single-day record, according to company data. The staggering sums are a sure sign, according to digital strategists, that people are responding to Mr. Biden’s ads — and donating, too.”

CNN: “State lawmakers and officials looking to host the Republican National Convention are intensely courting President Trump directly, believing he will ultimately make the final decision on where the event will be held.”

“Georgia and Florida have emerged as the two states pursuing the convention the most aggressively. Savannah, Georgia, and Jacksonville, Florida, are both on the short list as options to replace Charlotte.”

“Amid a public backlash over the militarized federal response to mass protests, President Trump is seeking to turn the national movement for racial justice into a debate over law and order, presenting Democrats as inflaming chaos in American cities,” the Washington Post reports.

“But as the White House and the president’s reelection campaign begin that messaging, they are already facing difficulty navigating the line between exhibiting toughness and straying into the kind of offensive rhetoric and race-baiting that have often defined Trump’s tenure.”

New York Times: Trump rebuffs protests over systemic racism and calls police “great people.”

“National Republicans are warning candidates to stay away from House Majority Leader Eric Cantor’s (R-VA) pollster, who predicted just weeks before Cantor’s loss that he was up by a huge margin,” The Hill reports.

“Veteran GOP pollster John McLaughlin has a recent history of missing the mark by a wide margin in his top races. Now, it seems some Republicans have had enough.”

McLaughlin has a FiveThirtyEight pollster rating of C/D and is one of the lowest-rated polls in their database.

“Donald Trump is planning to restart rallies in the next two weeks in a major turning point for the president since the coronavirus shut down traditional campaigning,” Politico reports.

“Trump’s advisers are still determining where the rallies will take place and what safety measures will be implemented, depending on the type of venue chosen. Campaign manager Brad Parscale is expected to present Trump with possibilities within the next few days.”

First Read: “For all the recent 2020 focus on young voters, seniors and African-American turnout, don’t forget about the gender gap. Because our new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll shows that this gap is more like a canyon — and it could very well be President Trump’s biggest disadvantage in November.”

“Overall, our poll shows Democratic presumptive presidential nominee Joe Biden leading Trump by 7 points among registered voters, 49 percent to 42 percent, which is unchanged from April. But looking inside of these numbers, Biden is ahead of Trump by 21 points (!!!) among women, 56 percent to 35 percent. That’s compared with Hillary Clinton’s 13-point advantage with women, per the 2016 exit poll. And Trump is up among men by 8 points, 50 percent to 42 percent – when it was 11 points in the 2016 exit poll.”

“What’s more, Biden holds a 25-point lead among women with college degrees, while Trump is ahead by just 5 points among women without college degrees.”

“Bottom line: If Trump is really losing all female voters by anywhere close to 20 points, it’s going to be hard for him to win the 2020 presidential election, especially if he maintains his ’16 support among men.”

A new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll finds two-thirds of American voters say they would not feel comfortable flying on a plane or attending a large gathering due to continued worry about the spread of the coronavirus.

Half of all voters are also uneasy about dining at restaurants, and half of parents say they are uncomfortable sending their children back to school or daycare in August.

“Priorities USA Action, a major Democratic super PAC, is out in Arizona and other states with new TV and digital ads attacking President Trump — totaling $4 million in spending,” Politico reports.

“The ads — slamming Trump for his response to the coronavirus pandemic and the ongoing protests over the death of George Floyd by Minneapolis police — will also air in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan, part of an existing buy in those states. But the month-long expansion into Arizona — after the super PAC briefly aired TV ads there in March — reflects a shift in recent public polling, which has showed the state increasingly competitive.”

Delaware politics from a liberal, progressive and Democratic perspective. Keep Delaware Blue.

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