The Campaign Report – More Polling Goodness

Here are some new Public Policy Polling surveys in four key battleground states:

  • Pennsylvania: Biden 51%, Trump 44%
  • Michigan: Biden 51%, Trump 44%
  • Wisconsin: Biden 50%, Trump 45%
  • North Carolina: Biden 49%, Trump 46%

Here’s a new Susquehanna Polling and Research poll:

  • Pennsylvania: Biden 48%, Trump 42%

A new Fox News poll in Florida finds Joe Biden leading President Trump in the presidential race, 46% to 43%.

A new Harvard Institute of Politics poll of 18- to 29- year-olds finds that Joe Biden significantly leads President Trump all young Americans, 51% to 28%, and his advantage among likely voters, 60% to 30%, is comparable to what Sen. Bernie Sanders would have enjoyed at the top of the Democratic ticket.

“A string of recent polls shows troubling signs for President Trump with older voters, a group central to his reelection effort that appears to be drifting away from him amid a pandemic that has been especially deadly for senior citizens,” the Washington Post reports.

“Joe Biden, whose support from older voters helped him lead the primaries, appears to be carrying over some of that appeal into the general election. With Trump’s approval ratings sagging over his handling of the coronavirus crisis, Biden’s campaign is attempting to capitalize with a group that has traditionally leaned Republican.”

Meghan McCain, daughter of the late Sen. John McCain (R-AZ), endorsed Joe Biden for president, CNN reports. Said McCain: “There’s one man who has made pain in my life a living hell and another man who has literally shepherded me through the grief process.”

This is no surprise. Here is Biden comforting McCain back in 2017 over her father’s diagnosis. This is why Biden is winning. He is a very emphatic man, the perfect anti-Trump.

A new Quinnipiac poll finds 72% of Floridians don’t want to loosen social distancing rules come April 30 despite Gov. Ron DeSantis’s (R) push to do so and and 76% said they are only comfortable returning to daily life if public health officials say it is safe.  

A new CBS News poll finds 54% of Americans think daily life – the way people interact with each other and the way they work – will be permanently changed, while 46% think things will eventually return to normal.

A new AP-NORC poll finds just 23% of Americans say they have high levels of trust in what President Trump is telling the public on the pandemic. Another 21% trust him a moderate amount.

“But even as many Republicans question Trump’s credibility during the pandemic, the overwhelming majority — 82% — say they still approve of how he’s doing. That’s helped keep the president’s overall approval rating steady at 42%, about where it’s been for the past few months.”

A new CBS News poll finds 63% of Americans are more worried about restrictions lifting too fast and worsening the outbreak —than worry about lifting restrictions too slowly and worsening the economy.

Key takeaway: “Only 13% say they would definitely return to public places over the next few weeks if restrictions were lifted right now, regardless of what else happened with the outbreak. Almost half — 48% — say they would not return to public places until they were confident the outbreak was over.”

Politico: “With Trump’s poll figures sagging in key battleground states six months out from the election, the Republican National Committee has launched a massive effort to reach some 20 million swing voters to make an affirmative case for his performance. But Trump campaign officials are taking a different approach: Rather than devoting resources to boost Trump’s numbers, which haven’t moved materially since he was elected, they want to go scorched earth against Joe Biden.”

“The deliberations illustrate how the highest ranks of the Republican Party are grappling with the uncertainty the coronavirus crisis has injected into the race — and how best to prepare for a general election that looks nothing like what they’d been anticipating.”

Politico: “Academic researchers writing in a little-noticed public administration journal — Administrative Theory & Praxis — conclude that when considering nothing other than the tens of thousands of deaths projected from the virus, demographic shifts alone could be enough to swing crucial states to Joe Biden in the fall.”

Kansas GOP chair Mike Kuckelman sent letters to two Republican candidates — Susan Wagle and Dave Lindstrom — asking them to drop out of the race for U.S. Senate for the good of the party, the Kansas City Star reports.

Kuckelman told the candidates that continuing their campaigns will endanger the party’s ability to hold the seat in November after eight decades of dominance in Senate races.

Kuckelman’s warning is an indirect but unmistakable reference to former Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach (R), who lost to Laura Kelly (D) in the 2018 race for governor after a historically close Republican primary that featured numerous candidates. It’s also an indirect endorsement of Rep. Roger Marshall for the nomination.

CNN: “The new Trump campaign app uses gamification to drive voter outreach and valuable data collection. It’s the latest effort from the campaign as it tries to push its already sizeable digital advantage to a victory in the 2020 election against presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden. In doing so, it is building off Trump’s 2016 campaign’s successful and innovative effort to target voters through online platforms like Facebook and Twitter.”

“OK folks, I implore you, please leave Confederate flags and/or AR15s, AK47s, or any other long guns at home. I well understand that the Confederacy was more about states rights than slavery. But that does not change the truth of how we should try to control the optics during the event.”

— Wisconsin Republican party treasurer Brian Westrate, quoted by the New York Times, in a private Facebook group for organizers of stay-at-home protests.

Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: “President Trump’s approval rating is not the only big-picture national indicator that has not changed much over the course of his presidency.”

“The national House generic ballot has also been very consistent for the three-plus years he’s been in the White House. Democrats have led almost every single one of the nearly 400 House generic ballot national polls released since Trump took office, as compiled in the 2018 and 2020 RealClearPolitics averages.”

Bottom line: “Democrats remain favored to hold their House majority.”

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) said late yesterday that she will vote for Joe Biden in the coming November election, The Hill reports.

Said Ocasio-Cortez: “I mean, I’ve been saying this whole time that we got to support the Democratic nominee. This is the time I’m saying it declaratively like this.”

“I’ll be very frank with you, the job I want is the one that I have. I worked for two years to become the governor of the state of Michigan, and while it’s been challenging and there have been some tough days, there’s no place I’d rather be than right here in my home state, making decisions that are saving people’s lives. It’s the honor of my lifetime to be here.”

— Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D), when asked by CNN about the prospect of being picked as Joe Biden’s running mate.

Perry Bacon: “Polls over the past month found that Republicans were less supportive of such measures than Democrats, but they were still in favor overall. For most of that period, though, there wasn’t really a vocal movement arguing against social distancing. That changed toward the end of last week, particularly with the protests, which were fairly small but got a lot of media coverage. In the wake of the protests and Trump’s support of them, I had expected conservative and Republican voters to become more opposed to social distancing since voters often take cues from party leaders and elites.”

“But they haven’t so far.”

Delaware politics from a liberal, progressive and Democratic perspective. Keep Delaware Blue.

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