The Campaign Report – April 9, 2020

A new CNN poll finds Joe Biden leading President Trump, 53% to 42%, among registered voters nationally. “The nationwide picture shows Biden starts with an edge among voters generally, but national polling cannot address the state-by-state electoral college race which ultimately determines the presidency.”

A new Quinnipiac poll finds Joe Biden leading President Trump in a head-to-head match up nationally, 49% to 41%. When asked who would do a better job handling a crisis, voters say by 51% to 42% that Biden would do a better job than Trump.

A new Monmouth poll finds Joe Biden with a 4-point lead over President Trump nationally, 48% to 44%. Another 5% say they would vote for an independent candidate and 3% are undecided. At the end of last month, Biden led 48% to 45%.

Said pollster Patrick Murray: “The static nature of these results suggests the president’s response to the pandemic is certainly not helping his reelection prospects.”

For comparison, the RealClearPolitics polling average has Biden ahead by 6.4%.

Joe Biden reacted to Bernie Sanders suspending his presidential campaign by commending him in a statement for the coalition he has built.

Said Biden: “He hasn’t just run a political campaign; he’s created a movement. And make no mistake about it, I believe it’s a movement that is as powerful today as it was yesterday. That’s a good thing for our nation and our future.” Biden added that he would be “reaching out” to Sanders shortly and promised to work closely with him to unify the Democratic party.

“Joe Biden isn’t about to become Bernie Sanders, but he’s signaling that there’s potential for more common ground on issues such as health care, student debt, climate change and more in the weeks ahead,” Axios reports.

“As Biden courts Sanders’ endorsement, their teams will hold policy discussions in the next few weeks with the expectation that Biden will incorporate some elements of Sanders’ agenda.”

CNN: “Sanders’ exit caps a stunning reversal of fortune following a strong performance in the first three states that voted in February. The nomination appeared his for the taking until, on the last day of February, Biden surged to a blowout victory in South Carolina that set off a consolidation of moderate voters around the former vice president.”

Washington Post: “Sanders’s departure presents Democrats with an immediate challenge: Can the party unify as it failed to do in 2016, when a feud between supporters of Sanders and Hillary Clinton damaged its efforts to win the presidency?”

Barack Obama and Bernie Sanders spoke multiple times in the last few weeks as the Vermont senator determined the future of his campaign, CNN reports.

First Read says Joe Biden has three challenges between now and Democratic party’s convention in August:

  • He’s got to bring Sanders and Elizabeth Warren into the fold; both still haven’t endorsed him.
  • He’s got to raise a lot of money to compete with President Trump’s money machine, and it’s got to be primary dollars before August (since he can’t tap general election funds until after the convention).
  • And he’s got to build a top-notch organization in the battleground states, and organization wasn’t a strong suit for Biden during the primaries (though he’s made a start by tapping Obama vet Jennifer O’Malley Dillon as his new campaign manager).

“The good news for Biden is that he appears to be tailor-made for the current news environment. He doesn’t need to build his name ID; his lack of exposure right now is probably more of a blessing rather than a curse (fewer gaffes); and the political conversation is more about competency and effective bureaucracy than it was a month ago – both of which are Biden strengths.”

Daniel McGraw: “Trump’s insults to Michigan governor Gretchen Whitmer go beyond his usual craziness. When Whitmer, a Democrat who won the 2018 governor’s race by more than 400,000 votes, began asking the feds for more masks, ventilators, test kits, and other aid, Trump insulted her at press conferences and on Twitter.”

“Trump’s behavior toward Michigan is strange enough that it makes you wonder whether he fully understands that he needs to win the state to secure a second term.”

“In a rare divergence of opinion from the views expressed by President Trump, Gov. Pete Ricketts (R) urged Nebraskans to take advantage of the opportunity to vote by mail in the May 12 primary election,” the Lincoln Journal Star reports.

Said Ricketts: “It’s a great way for people to be able to vote… I’d encourage people to take advantage of that.”

“About 60,000 Georgia voters recently received absentee ballot request forms with the wrong return mailing or email address,” the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports.

Perhaps unrelatedly, Georgia’s primary election was postponed again for another three weeks, until June 9, “as the coronavirus spreads, poll workers quit and voters worry about getting sick at precincts,” the Atlanta Journal Constitution reports.

A new SurveyUSA poll finds the number of Americans who strongly disapprove of the way in which President Trump is handling coronavirus crisis has jumped from 25% two weeks ago to 38% today.

In addition, Trump’s net approval for handling the crisis has fallen 13 points over this time period.

Also striking: 48% today say they have no confidence in President Trump’s ability to lead the nation through these trying times, while 43% say they do have confidence. This is another 14-point turn for the worse from 2 weeks ago, when 50% had confidence and 41% did not.

Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball finds the May special election in California’s 25th congressional district might provide Republicans with their best opportunity to claw back some of their lost California turf.

The seat once held by Rep. Katie Hill (D-CA) has moved from Leans Democratic to Toss-up.

Rick Wilson: “Donald Trump and his allies bet the Ukrainian farm on turning Hunter Biden into a radioactive campaign issue, and even though it failed, that’s no reason they won’t bring it up again. And again. And again. Shamelessly and brutally and falsely.”

“The trick here isn’t to launch into an endless defense of Hunter. The trick is to go on the attack, and go hard. Go after Ivanka’s China copyright deals. Daddy’s little angel is a sociopathic chip off the Trumpian block, and his weird feelings towards her (‘So that’s how it is in that family’) will lead to his over-reaction.”

“Go after the failsons and sons-in-law, starting with Jared’s Persian Gulf bailout. Don’t spare Donald Trump Jr. These scuzzy griftbots are raking in money off the campaign hand over fist, and no one is holding them accountable. They’re using the hotels to launder lobbyist money back into Trump’s pockets. There’s enough oppo here for a hundred campaigns.”

“Biden just needs to be bold enough to use it, and strong enough to resist the initial fainting-couch faux outrage when he gives back as good as he got.”

Washington Post: “As an opening salvo for what is certain to be a historically fierce general election campaign, the Trump tactics offered a window into the race ahead, pitting a conventional Democratic campaign against a Republican incumbent still striving to scramble political categories…”

“One is a competition for the ideological center of the country, run through the tony, tax-skeptical suburbs of key swing states that rejected the GOP in 2018. The second is a fight for the mostly working-class populism of the left, which has rejected the establishment politics of both national parties.”

John Harris: “The first factor is how effectively Sanders navigates the complexities of 2020 politics. In a grudging mood, Sanders could signal to his supporters that former vice president Joseph Biden isn’t that bad, compared to the alternative in Donald Trump. It would be quite a different thing to argue that a Biden presidency would be affirmatively good—a step, even if more tentative than Sanders would wish, toward advancing a transformative progressive agenda.”

“Sanders’ long-term reputation, however, will hinge even more on something he can’t dictate: What happens to the young activists who he energized with his cranky manner and democratic socialist agenda? George McGovern, another movement politician, was routed in his effort to become president in 1972 but people immersed in that campaign—from Gary Hart to Bill and Hillary Clinton—were dominant figures in American politics for the next 45 years.”

Politico: “Even as the country confronts the greatest disruption to daily life since World War II, a series of new polls released this week show Trump’s approval ratings plateauing in the mid-40s, roughly where his approval rating stood a month ago, before the coronavirus shuttered much of the nation’s economic and social activity.”

“In other words, public views of Trump’s leadership in the coronavirus crisis are now breaking down along familiar lines of polarization: Americans view his performance during the pandemic about the same way they view his performance generally.”

A new Monmouth poll finds public confidence in the federal response to the coronavirus outbreak has dipped and most Americans say that Washington is not doing enough to help the states hit hard by this pandemic. Key findings:

  • 54% say the federal measures have not gone far enough (up from 45% who said the same in late March).
  • 55% say that the federal government is not doing enough to help states that have been hit hard by the outbreak.
  • 60% say the steps taken by their individual states have been appropriate.

Said pollster Patrick Murray: “Most Americans disagree with the Trump administration’s position that the federal government is a backup to the states. The public seems to view this as a national crisis that requires a national response on par with the aggressive approach taken by the states.”

Delaware politics from a liberal, progressive and Democratic perspective. Keep Delaware Blue.

1 comment on “The Campaign Report – April 9, 2020

  1. Bernie’s policies and ideas will live on in the Democratic party, especially Medicare For All. I have said for many years that American healthcare will collapse of it’s own incredibly expensive weight, believe the virus may well get us to that point. It’s predicted premiums will rise by a staggering 40% next year, if so it will push the number of uninsured thru the roof. We usually have half a million medical bankruptcies per year, that’s bad enough, not hard to imagine a million or more per year going forward. The time is now.

Leave a Reply

%d bloggers like this: