The Campaign Report – February 10, 2020

A new Quinnipiac poll shows Bernie Sanders leading the Democratic presidential race nationally with 25%, followed by Joe Biden at 17%, Michael Bloomberg at 15%, Elizabeth Warren at 14%, Pete Buttigieg at 10% and Amy Klobuchar st 4%.

Said pollster Tim Malloy: “Is the Bloomberg camp prepping the white horse for him to ride to the rescue? Maybe not yet, but without setting foot in Iowa or New Hampshire, he is suddenly a looming shadow over the primary field.”

Quinnipiac has head to head match ups with Democrats. All the top candidates beat Trump by significant margins.

  • Bloomberg 51 – 42
  • Sanders 51 – 43
  • Biden 50 – 43
  • Klobuchar 49 – 43
  • Warren 48 – 44
  • Buttigieg 47 – 43

The final CNN poll in New Hampshire finds Bernie Sanders leading with 29%, followed by Pete Buttigieg at 22%, Joe Biden at 11%, Elizabeth Warren at 10% and Amy Klobuchar at 7%. Key takeaway: “Only about half of likely primary voters in New Hampshire say they have definitely decided for whom they will vote, meaning that despite the stability in the numbers throughout the six-day tracking period, there remains room for preferences to shift.”

A new Boston Globe/WBZ-TV/Suffolk University poll in New Hampshire finds Bernie Sanders leading the Democratic primary with 27%, followed by Pete Buttigieg at 19%, Amy Klobuchar at 14%, Elizabeth Warren at 12% and Joe Biden at 12%

A new 7 News/ Emerson College tracking poll finds Sanders leading with 30%, followed by Buttigieg at 23%, Klobuchar at 14%, Warren at 11% and Biden at 10%.

“If Michael Bennet is the nominee, Mitch McConnell’s going to look like he crapped a pineapple.” — James Carville, quoted by the Washington Post, in support of Sen. Michael Bennet’s presidential campaign. Oh please. He would say Michael who?

But here is where Carville is right: “He got 44.8% in 2018. He suffered the worst electoral defeat in the House ever… but yet, the media is going, ‘Oh, he’s so strong, he’s so powerful, he’s so this.’ No he’s not!” — James Carville, in an interview on MSNBC, on President Trump.

James Hohmann: “Most Democrats don’t want Sanders to be their nominee, but they cannot agree on who to rally behind instead. Despite rumbling concerns of the establishment, there’s no organized Stop Sanders or Never Bernie movement. In fact, Democrats who don’t support Sanders still hold largely favorable views of him. Unlike in Iowa, where he faced nearly a million dollars in attack ads, no one is on the air here with anti-Sanders commercials.”

Time: “The Warren campaign prides itself on ignoring the horse race, dismissing what it calls ‘the pollercoaster’ and staying focused on Warren’s message of combating corruption in politics and ushering in structural change. Aides argue she has done a better job of consolidating the support of prominent local Democratic elected leaders than her rivals. If anything, Warren seems to be doubling down on her fundamental belief that politics is about policy.”

A new Monmouth poll finds that 49% of the public approves and 47% disapproves of the Senate’s decision to acquit Trump and not remove him from office.

“The impeachment trial – like pretty much every other event or incident during the Trump presidency – has had little impact on public opinion of the incumbent. Trump’s job rating stands at 44% approve and 50% disapprove, which is statistically indistinguishable from his 43%-52% rating last month. Over the past 12 months, Trump’s approval has ranged from 40% to 44% in Monmouth’s polling, while disapproval has ranged from 50% to 54%.”

“Sheldon Adelson, an ardent pro-Israel conservative, is expected to donate at least $100m to boost Donald Trump’s 2020 re-election efforts and Republican congressional candidates this fall,” The Guardian reports.

Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI) confirmed to Sirius XM that she will “of course” back the Democratic party’s presidential nominee if she doesn’t win. We will see.

New York Times: “As disastrous as the 2020 Iowa caucuses have appeared to the public, the failure runs deeper and wider than has previously been known, according to dozens of interviews with those involved. It was a total system breakdown that casts doubt on how a critical contest on the American political calendar has been managed for years.”

“Until now, the main public villain in the Iowa caucus fiasco has been the reporting app, created by a company called Shadow Inc., along with a ‘coding issue’ in a back-end results reporting system that state party officials blamed for the chaos. But the crackup resulted from cascading failures going back months.”

Sen. Bernie Sanders’ campaign plans to ask for a “partial recanvass” of the results of last week’s Iowa caucuses, the AP reports.

“A recanvass is not a recount, but a check of the vote count against paper records to ensure the counts were reported accurately.”

Joe Biden insisted he can still win the Democratic presidential nomination in a contentious CBS News interview.

Said Biden: “Nothing’s going to happen until we get down to a place and around the country where there’s much more diversity. And, you know, you’re always behind the eight ball when you’re running in New Hampshire and you have two people from the neighboring states.”

First Read: “In 2016, Bernie Sanders won a whopping 73 percent of these independent voters. But in our NBC News/Marist poll we released on Friday, Sanders was getting just 22 percent of them — compared with Buttigieg at 25 percent and Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren at 10 percent apiece.”

“What’s going on here? Well, because there isn’t a competitive GOP primary this year, you not only have pro-Bernie indies, you also have the GOP-leaning independents who backed John Kasich and Jeb Bush in 2016.”

“If Buttigieg is going to pull off the upset on Tuesday against Sanders — or at least make it close — it will be due to those independents. Ditto if Amy Klobuchar continues her momentum, especially after Friday night’s debate.”

Jonathan Swan: “Mike Bloomberg’s campaign feels corporate. It’s calm, orderly and punctual. His audiences clap politely, and you can’t walk two steps without running into a paid staffer with talking points. Nobody whoops or yells. Nothing is left to chance. No expense is spared. The candidate is self-consciously low-key.”

“After being immersed in Donald Trump’s freewheeling White House and campaign for more than four years, I found the day I spent flying around with Bloomberg’s campaign last week in California to be a foreign experience.”

“The scale of Bloomberg’s staff buildup and national advertising spend is unprecedented in modern American politics. His operation is coming to resemble his own personal political party.”

Rachel Bitecofer: “Ultimately, it may be Bloomberg, not Biden that subverts Buttigieg’s already historic bid for the Democratic nomination. Bloomberg, like Buttigieg, has a complicated relationship with voters of color. But unlike Buttigieg, he has experience and a campaign war chest the likes of which we’ve never seen. At the end of the day, what voters are looking for the most in their nominee is reassurance that their long national nightmare will end and that is the message Bloomberg is selling. And he has all the money in the world to bankroll the effort.”

David Drucker: “With Biden’s poor showing in Iowa and his New Hampshire support diminishing, Bloomberg is beginning to intrigue Democratic officials.”

Politico: “Bernie Sanders was battered in Iowa with more than $800,000 in TV attack ads that labeled him a socialist and argued he couldn’t beat President Trump. Here in New Hampshire, the opposite has happened: The airwaves are free of anti-Sanders spots in the days before the first-in-the-nation-primary, and he’s watching the moderates shank each other.”

“Tom Steyer is largely training his advertising firepower onto Pete Buttigieg and Joe Biden. The former vice president is mocking Buttigieg’s experience and targeting him in a digital spot. Fighting back against Biden, the ex-mayor says he’s tired of being a punchline. The strength of the Vermont senator — who is polling first in the state with Buttigieg closely behind him — and the sudden lack of resistance to him on the airwaves is sparking anxiety among some moderate Democratic leaders.”

Delaware politics from a liberal, progressive and Democratic perspective. Keep Delaware Blue.

4 comments on “The Campaign Report – February 10, 2020

  1. cassandram

    If you are a podcast listener, strongly suggest that you check out the Campaign HQ podcast where David Plouffe interviews Bloomberg’s campaign manager — Kevin Sheekey. It is the December 5th podcast. Even though Bloomberg swore off campaigning a year or so back, you definitely get the feel that Bloomberg did not stop polling. Which could make sense for a data guy. I am seeing all of these choices in light of someone who may have some very intriguing data and enough money to bypass the usual campaign cute stuff. Since he keeps telling people he will support whoever wins the nomination, a pre-packaged national organizing team plus tons of money to pour into advertising plus enough delegates to make a nominee could mean he is running for President but will settle for kingmaker.

    And before anyone wants to argue, I don’t approve of buying a Presidency or even buying being a kingmaker, but it is what it is until campaign finance laws change.

  2. RE Vanella

    This Bloomberg?

    Did Pfluff discuss how Acronym funneled that money to Shadow or nah?

    I was lead to believe that y’all didn’t listen to podcasts.

  3. I’ll thank Chuck Todd to shut his seb-gorka lookin mouth forever.
    It’s bad enough we have shondas like Ben Shapiro deciding who is and isnt a “real Jew” Now this goyshe excuse for newsman is getting in on the act. fire. chuck. todd.

    This is gonna be a long year for the Jews.

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