The Campaign Report – 10/14/19

A new Quinnipiac poll finds Elizabeth Warren leading the Democratic presidential field nationally with 30%, followed by Joe Biden at 27%, Bernie Sanders at 11%, Pete Buttigieg at 8% and Kamala Harris at 4%. No other candidate tops 2%.

A new CBS News poll across 18 early primary and caucus states finds Elizabeth Warren leading the Democratic field with 31%, followed by Joe Biden at 25%, Bernie Sanders at 17%, Kamala Harris at 7%, Pete Buttigieg at 5% and Beto O’Rourke at 4%.

As for individual states, Warren has increased her lead over the pack in New Hampshire and pulled even with Biden in Iowa. And Warren leads in the CBS News delegate model over Biden, too, demonstrating that she’s competitive in many regions.

New Firehouse Strategies/Optimus polls finds Elizabeth Warren ahead in Iowa and New Hampshire, Joe Biden leading in South Carolina and Pete Buttigieg surging in Iowa:

  • Iowa: Warren 25%, Biden 22%, Buttigieg 17%, Sanders 5%.
  • New Hampshire: Warren 25%, Biden 18%, Sanders 9%
  • South Carolina: Biden 32%, Warren 16%, Sanders 8%

Nate Silver: “Warren’s gains have come mostly at the expense of the rest of the field — from Kamala Harris and Bernie Sanders, in particular — and from other candidates, such as Cory Booker, whose campaigns never really took off in the first place. Relatively little of Warren’s increased support has come from Biden, whose topline numbers have mostly been steady.”

“In fact, Biden’s numbers haven’t declined at all since President Trump’s phone call with Ukraine became the dominant political story.”

Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI) said she will attend this week’s Democratic debate after earlier suggesting she might boycott the event over perceived unfair treatment, The Hill reports.

A new ALG Research (D) poll in Louisiana finds Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) leading challenger Eddie Rispone (R) in the November 16 gubernatorial runoff election, 52% to 36%.

“President Trump loomed large over Louisiana’s governor’s race a day after Gov. John Bel Edwards fell short of winning Saturday’s primary outright, forcing him to face businessman Eddie Rispone in next month’s runoff,” the New Orleans Times-Picayune reports.

“About 200,000 more people voted in the primary compared to the 2015 runoff election that Edwards won, an increase of about 17%. An analysis on Sunday by Jim Kitchens, who was the governor’s pollster four years ago and was an independent consultant for his campaign this year, indicated that most of the 200,000 were white rural voters who voted for Rispone or Abraham.”

“Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg has been hosting informal talks and small, off-the-record dinners with conservative journalists, commentators and at least one Republican lawmaker in recent months to discuss issues like free speech and discuss partnerships,” Politico reports.

“The dinners, which began in July, are part of Zuckerberg’s broader effort to cultivate friends on the right amid outrage by President Trump and his allies over alleged ‘bias’ against conservatives at Facebook and other major social media companies.”

“Michael Bloomberg has indicated to associates in recent weeks that Joe Biden’s recent struggles against Sen. Elizabeth Warren are making him rethink his decision to stay out of the 2020 Democratic primary,” CNBC reports.

“Bloomberg has signaled he’s ‘still looking at’ running for president, but people close him say that the only way he could even go down that path is if Biden’s fortunes suffer so much that he drops out before or during the early stages of the primary. Bloomberg could then enter the race as one of the rare moderates with enough name recognition and campaign funding to make a run.”

Said one Bloomberg ally: “I think it’s something he wants. He has not been shy about that. Nothing can happen unless Biden drops out, and that’s not happening anytime soon.”

“On Dec. 19, 2016, a little more than a month after the presidential election, members of the Electoral College gathered around the nation to cast their votes. Ten of them went rogue,” the New York Times reports.

“A swing by that number of electors would have been enough to change the outcomes in five of the previous 58 presidential elections, according to a petition filed last week in the Supreme Court. In the 2000 election, after an assist from the Supreme Court, George W. Bush beat Al Gore by just five electoral votes.”

“The petition asked the justices to decide whether ‘faithless electors‘ were free to disregard pledges they made to vote for their own parties’ candidates. It urged the court to act quickly.”

“President Trump’s allies still fear a general election matchup against a banged-up Joe Biden more than a run against an invigorated Elizabeth Warren,” people close to the president tell Axios.

“Several advisers in Trumpworld told Alayna that Warren is arguably a better candidate in terms of being quick on her feet and prepared on a debate stage. But those advisers say her liberal stances on some issues and her ‘likeability’ problem with segments of general election voters make her weaker against Trump than even a Biden hindered by gaffes, generational dissonances and a son with personal drama and a lobbying record.”

New York Times: “Ms. Warren is expected to reveal additional support from Democratic officials this week in conjunction with Tuesday’s CNN/New York Times debate and the release of her smashing third-quarter financial disclosure. Yet her growing crowd sizes, soaring fund-raising and surge to the top of a number of national and early-state polls only shine a brighter light on one of the most revealing elements of this primary: the widening gap between the preferences of many Democratic voters and the lawmakers who represent them.”

“Ms. Warren is now a clear front-runner in the race for her party’s nomination, yet just under four months before the leadoff Iowa caucuses she lacks the support of a single governor, big-city mayor or fellow senator outside Massachusetts.”

A new Public Policy Polling survey shows that Ohio is set to return to its traditional status as a battleground state in 2020. After winning the state by 8 points in 2016, President Trump now trails a generic Democratic 47% to 48% and holds an underwater 47% to 51% favorable rating. Given that state’s swing from 2012 to 2016, it is especially notable that Trump trails a generic Democrat 37% to 51% with independent voters.

Joe Biden told Radio Iowa that if he is elected president, he would not pardon President Trump from any possible charges he might face after leaving office.

Said Biden: “It wouldn’t unite the country. You’d say: ‘Wait a minute. I get a parking ticket and I’ve got to pay it. This happens to me and I’ve got to go to jail. This guy does all these things that put us jeopardy and he gets off?’ I think this is of a different nature.”

He added: “I think President Ford… had to do it over again he wouldn’t have done it… because he didn’t get reelected.”

A new Kaiser Family Foundation poll finds 95% of Democrats and 61% of independents say they are not confident President Trump will follow through on his promises to propose a new health care plan. In fact, just 37% of those polled were even aware that Trump had promised to release a plan to replace the Affordable Care Act.

However, 81% of Republicans are somewhat or very confident Trump will deliver on his health care promises.

Calling out President Trump by name, former Vice President Joe Biden’s 2020 campaign introduced a plan on Monday to “strengthen our laws to ensure that no future president can ever again abuse the office for personal gain,” Axios reports.

“The ambitious plan, which comes as the Trump campaign continues to promote unsubstantiated corruption allegations against Biden himself, would seek to end the influence of money in politics and curb conflicts of interest.”

Delaware politics from a liberal, progressive and Democratic perspective. Keep Delaware Blue.

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