The Campaign Report – 10/7/2019

A new Wason Center poll in Virginia survey finds Democrats holding a 13-point advantage on the “generic ballot” test, which asks voters if they will cast their state legislative ballots for the Republican or Democratic Party’s candidates.

“This gap persists under all versions of our likely voter model and is further supported by the strong preference voters express that the Democratic Party control the General Assembly after this election: 53% of voters want the Democrats to control the Assembly,  compared with 37% who want Republican control, a 16-point gap.”

“In our first test of Virginia’s 2020 presidential ballot, President Trump is trailing a generic Democratic opponent by 15 points. Again, most of this data precedes the Ukraine disclosures. Overall, 51% of voters said they would vote for the unnamed Democrat and 36% said they would vote for President Trump.”

“The top fundraiser in the Democratic presidential field was hospitalized with a heart attack, the longtime polling leader and his son sit at the center of an impeachment inquiry, and the one candidate with clear momentum faces persistent doubts among some party leaders that she is too liberal to win the general election,” the Washington Post reports.

“With breathtaking speed, the events of the past two weeks have created huge uncertainty for the candidates who have dominated the Democratic nomination race, shaking a party desperate to defeat President Trump next year and deeply fearful of any misstep that risks reelecting a president many Democrats see as dangerously unfit for office.”

A new IBD/TIPP poll finds Elizabeth Warren leading the Democratic pack with 27%, followed by Joe Biden at 26%, Bernie Sanders at 10% and Pete Buttigieg at 7%. No other Democrat registered more than 3% in the survey.

Associated Press: “The Massachusetts senator has proven she’s popular in Democratic strongholds, perhaps most memorably when she filled New York’s Washington Square Park last month. But as she’s rising in the polls and sitting on a fresh pile of campaign cash, Warren is also frequently hitting places where she might be less welcome. That includes Nevada’s capital, a conservative area with a proud cowboy streak that’s a seven-hour drive from the glitz of Democrat-friendly Las Vegas.”

“These trips test whether the progressive message that has fueled Warren’s rise can resonate in all regions. It’s an important hurdle for Warren to clear to prove that, if she were to become the Democratic nominee, she could win back voters in areas that sided with President Donald Trump in 2016.”

“Her trip last week to Carson City gave reason for optimism. Warren drew more than 1,000 people on a Wednesday night.”

Mark Kelly (D), the retired NASA astronaut who is vying to unseat Sen. Martha McSally (R-AZ), “outraised her for the third straight quarter and has eclipsed his first two previous fundraising quarters,” the Arizona Republic reports.

“Kelly raised more than $5.5 million during the third quarter, his campaign told The Arizona Republic on Monday, bringing his total raised to nearly $14 million.”

A new Mason-Dixon poll in Louisiana finds Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) comfortably leads his two chief Republican rivals with 45%, while Eddie Rispone (R) is at 22% and Ralph Abraham (R) is at 17%, with five days left to the primary election.

If there’s a run-off between Edwards and Rispone, 51% of those polled said they would vote for Edwards while 42% said they would cast a ballot for Rispone. 7% were undecided.

If a run-off occurs between Edwards and Abraham, the poll found 53% would back Edwards while 38% would support Abraham. 9% were undecided.

Nathan Gonzales notes that Republicans lack a credible candidate in eight of the 13 House districts they are targeting with television ads on impeachment.

“Since the filing deadlines have not passed, there’s still time for candidates to enter these races, raise money and mount serious challenges. But the ads and district-level protests would have been a lot more effective if there were already well-financed challengers breathing down the necks of these incumbents.”

Tom Steyer has qualified for the November Democratic primary debate, The Hill reports. “Steyer received 4% support in South Carolina in a Fox News poll released Sunday, which counts as his fourth qualifying poll needed to take on the debate stage next month.” He’s the 7th candidate to qualify.

Wall Street Journal: “The political drift of physicians accelerated in 2016, when Donald Trump clinched the Republican presidential nomination.”

“Many physicians say they were uneasy about Republicans’ health policy proposals and turned off by Mr. Trump’s stance on scientific issues, such as his skepticism about climate change. Despite having mixed feelings about Obamacare, most physicians say they don’t support Republican lawmakers’ calls to repeal it without a clear replacement since they have already invested in adapting to its mandates, and because repeal could leave millions uninsured.”

Delaware politics from a liberal, progressive and Democratic perspective. Keep Delaware Blue.

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