Elections National

The Campaign Report – 10/1/2019

A new Saint Anselm College poll in New Hampshire finds Elizabeth Warren leads the Democratic field with 25%, followed by Joe Biden at 24%, Bernie Sanders at 11% and Pete Buttigieg at 10%. All other candidates are in single digits.

A new Winthrop University poll finds Joe Biden leading the Democratic field with 37%, followed by Elizabeth Warren at 17%, Bernie Sanders at 8%, Kamala Harris at 7%, Pete Buttigieg at 4%, Tom Steyer at 2%, Andrew Yang at 2% and Beto O’Rourke at 2%.

Key finding: Biden has the support of 46% of African-American voters.

Regarding the South Carolina Senate race, a new Change Research poll finds Jaime Harrison (D) trails Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) by just 7 percentage points — a surprisingly slim margin given the demographics of a state that elected President Trump by nearly 14 percentage points in 2016.

“Sen. Kamala Harris raised $11.6 million in the third quarter of 2019, a sum that is consistent with her previous hauls, despite the California Democrat’s falling poll numbers,” CNN reports. “Harris’ fundraising has been notably consistent throughout her presidential run. The candidate raised $12 million in the first quarter and $11.8 million in the second quarter.”

Sen. Cory Booker raised more than $6 million in the third quarter for his presidential campaign, buoyed by a surge of more than 46,000 donations totaling $2.1 million in the final 10 days of September, Politico reports.

“Mayor Pete Buttigieg raised $19.1 million for his presidential campaign during the last three months… The figure represents a decrease in his fund-raising pace from earlier in the summer,” the New York Timesreports.

“Mr. Buttigieg’s total for the third fund-raising quarter, which ended Monday, was $5.8 million less than the 2020 Democratic field-leading $24.9 million he raised during the previous fund-raising period, which ran from April to June.”

“Bernie Sanders raised $25.3 million in the past three months for his Democratic presidential bid, his campaign said Tuesday, exceeding the $18 million he raised in each of the previous two quarters this year,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

Washington Post: “The third-quarter figures announced by the campaign rival his $26 million haul at this point in the primary campaign in 2015, when he stunned the Democratic field by nearly matching the total of his opponent, Hillary Clinton, with an infusion of money from donors giving less than $200. Yet this time, he is facing more than a dozen opponents.”

Despite a claim made in a recent fundraising email, Julián Castro’s campaign manager told CBS News that the former Obama housing secretary won’t end his presidential bid if he’s unable to qualify for the fifth Democratic debate.

“Under a deal with federal prosecutors, North Carolina’s former state Republican chairman could testify against other defendants in the state’s largest-ever case of political bribery,” the Charlotte Observer reports.

“Robin Hayes would plead guilty to a single felony count of lying to the FBI under the deal. He’s scheduled to formally enter his guilty plea in federal court Wednesday. The plea agreement calls for Hayes to cooperate with prosecutors. That includes testifying against his co-defendants… Hayes, a former member of Congress, was one of four men indicted last March on multiple charges of conspiracy and bribery.”

A new Quinnipiac poll finds American voters are divided on impeaching and removing President Trump from office, 47% to 47% — closing a 20 point gap from less than a week ago. In the poll released on September 25th, voters said that the president should not be impeached and removed, 57% to 37%.

Key finding: Democrats showed the greatest change from the last poll. Today, they show a virtual consensus on impeaching Trump, 90% to 5%, while last week they said Trump should be impeached 73% to 21%.

A new CNN poll finds 47% of Americans support impeaching President Trump and removing him from office, up from 41% who felt that way in May.

“The share who favor impeachment and removal from office now narrowly outpaces the share who say they don’t feel that way — a first in CNN polling — although the two figures are within the poll’s margin of sampling error. Opposition stands at 45% in the new poll, down from 54% who said so in May.”

“Kamala Harris is shaking up the top ranks of her presidential campaign, the latest sign her once-promising bid is failing to meet expectations,”  Politico reports.

“The staff moves amount to a significant reorganization for a campaign that’s dropped so far in polls that it risks becoming a postscript in the Democratic primary. Harris’ light early-state schedule, hiccups on the trail and lack of consistency in delivering her message have consumed much of the attention and blame for her mounting struggles.”

A new Monmouth poll finds President Trump’s approval rating has remained steady in the wake of an official impeachment inquiry launched last week, 41% to 53%. Support for impeachment has ticked up slightly, with 44% who want to see Trump impeached and 52% who do not.

A new CNBC All-America Economic Survey finds just  37% of Americans approve of President Trump’s handling of his job, the lowest level of his presidency. However, the public is still split on impeachment with 47% opposing and 44% approving.

“New voters have registered in droves in Georgia since last year’s midterms, expanding the electorate ahead of the 2020 presidential election year when the state is expected to be a key political battleground,” the Atlanta Journal Constitution reports.

“More than 352,000 people signed up to vote in the past 11 months, the vast majority of them automatically registering when they obtain a driver’s license… The influx has boosted Georgia’s voter rolls to a record high of nearly 7.4 million.”

“The reach of late Republican gerrymandering mastermind Thomas Hofeller may be longer than previously known,” The Intercept reports.

“While Hofeller was known for drawing maps to give Republicans an advantage and to limit the impact of voters of color in North Carolina, Texas, Missouri, and Virginia, the new documents reveal he also participated in the 2010 redistricting cycle in Alabama, Florida, and West Virginia.”

“Pete Buttigieg is pitching himself as an alternative to moderate Democrats who might not be sold on Joe Biden,” Bloomberg reports.

“Despite raising a staggering $51 million in 2019, Buttigieg has been stuck in fourth place, between 5% and 7% in national polls. Part of that’s because he’s hard to define. He’s a little-known mayor of a small city. He eschews ideological labels. He blends a message that sounds like Elizabeth Warren with a platform that looks like Biden’s and a courteous Midwestern demeanor that calls for national unity.”

“His ‘re-centering’ message is designed to counter Republican caricatures of Democrats — he told Iowans that ‘freedom’ isn’t just about businesses having fewer regulations, it’s about being free of crippling health care costs; and he says big government should get out of the way of women making reproductive choices.”

Rep. Mac Thornberry (R-TX) announced he will not seek re-election next year. He is the sixth House Republican from Texas to announce he will not seek re-election next year.

“The retirement of six House Republicans from Texas at the end of this term shows their pessimism about winning back the House majority in 2020, GOP strategists tell Axios — and foreshadows bigger Republican fears in the nation’s second most populous state.”

“The GOP recognizes they can no longer ignore their Democratic opponents and count on coasting to re-election in this previously-reliable red state.”

President Trump and the Republican National Committee raised $125 million in the third quarter, a joint haul to help Trump and Republicans across the country, the Associated Press reports.

“A group pushing for the impeachment of President Trump is launching a $3.1 million ad campaign targeting Republican senators over the coming weeks as pro-impeachment activists turn their fire away from Democratic holdouts and toward members of the president’s own party,” the Washington Post reports.

“The group, Need to Impeach, is funded mainly by billionaire Democratic presidential candidate Tom Steyer. Top executives said that more than half of the ad campaign money will go toward television spots, with the rest underwriting digital ads.”

“The campaign will focus on Republican Sens. Susan Collins (Maine), Joni Ernst (Iowa), Cory Gardner (Colo.) and Martha McSally (Ariz.), all of whom are seeking reelection next year.”

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