A new Capitol Weekly poll in California finds Elizabeth Warren leading the Democratic presidential field with 29%, followed by Bernie Sanders at 21%, Joe Biden at 18%, Kamala Harris at 11%, Pete Buttigieg at 7% and Andrew Yang at 4%.
Warren also leads as the second-choice candidate with 25%, followed by Harris at 16% and Sanders at 14%.
Warren is now the frontrunner. Why? Well, let’s go back to the Des Moines Register Poll in Iowa that found Warren taking the lead in Iowa over the weekend. Remember that in a caucus, voters are asked to rank their choices because if your candidate does not meet a 15% threshold, your vote will be redistributed to your second or third choice, much like ranked choice voting now being used in Maine.
So the DMR poll found that 42% of Iowa Democrats pick Warren as their first or second choice, while Biden is 12 points behind at 30% saying he is their first or second choice. They are followed by Sanders at 21%, Buttigieg at 18% and Harris at 16%.
A win in Iowa can give the victorious candidate much momentum. Remember Kerry in 2004 and Obama in 2008. If Warren wins Iowa, she will be favored to win New Hampshire. Let’s assume that South Carolina goes with Biden. That means Nevada and California would be next. If she is leading already in California, that could be game set match.
Matthew Yglesias: “Democratic voters are stuck in a self-destructive loop.”
“The loop begins and ends with polls. Pollsters know that Democrats want to know who is the strongest candidate against President Donald Trump, so they conduct a lot of head-to-head polls matching Trump up against various contenders. The polls show that the best-known Democrats — former Vice President Joe Biden, Sen. Bernie Sanders, and Sen. Elizabeth Warren — are the strongest candidates against him, which likely boosts them in the polls. This makes it hard for the lesser-known candidates to get attention, which further ensures they’ll do poorly in the head-to-head polls against Trump.”
“The problem is that head-to-head polls at this stage in the race overwhelmingly reflect the challenger’s name recognition rather than anything that would help you predict an election outcome that’s more than a year in the future.”
Politico: “It began as nothing more than a device to govern an unruly primary field. But the bar set for Democrats to qualify for this year’s presidential debates has become a force in its own right, more consequential than any of the early debates it administered… And the rules are now metastasizing in unexpected ways.”
“In Iowa, some prominent Democrats are privately urging struggling campaigns to stay in the contest even if they cannot qualify for the debates, incredulous that metrics imposed by national Democratic Party officials could stamp out lesser contenders … Democrats raising money for down-ticket candidates are complaining that the presidential candidates’ imperative to raise money to meet debate thresholds is drawing attention away from congressional and state house contests — and perverting the Democratic Party’s messaging overall.”
The RNC paid over $160,000 to a law firm that is defending former Trump campaign manager Corey Lewandowski, CNBC reports. The payment was made a month before his testimony in front of the House Judiciary Committee.
“In 2016, Donald Trump blew through the guardrails of American politics. In his bid for reelection, he’s poised to blow them up,” the AP reports.
“This time around, he’s aided by the power of the presidency, with its unmatched megaphone and resources. And his latest provocation — prodding a foreign leader to investigate Democratic rival Joe Biden — suggests he sees little issue using his office for his personal political interests.”
“His actions foreshadow a no-holds-barred 2020 campaign, regardless of who Democrats select as their nominee in the coming months. If the lesson of Trump’s 2016 victory was that deeply personal attacks and factually inaccurate innuendo are a pathway to victory, his 2020 playbook appears to include more of the same.”
The DNC announced new qualifications for the Democratic presidential debate in November with campaigns needing donations from at least 165,000 unique donors to qualify and to reach at least 3% in four qualified polls.
An alternate polling option would allow candidates to meet a 5% polling threshold in two early-state polls.
Polls must be released between September 13 and seven days before the November debate to count toward qualification.
New York Times: “At least eight candidates have already met the 165,000-donor threshold… Only three qualifying polls have been released since Sept. 13.”
“A new poll by a firm linked to Joe Biden is testing messages designed to undercut support among Democrats for Medicare for All, one of the most contentious issues splitting the party’s top presidential contenders,” Bloomberg reports.
“The survey, commissioned by the centrist Democratic think tank Third Way, found that primary voters start off favoring the government-run health care system by a margin of 79% to 21%, but can be persuaded to oppose it. The study showed that Democrats are most swayed by the arguments that the program would impose a heavy cost on taxpayers and threaten Medicare for senior citizens.”
Randi Weingarten: The false choice over Medicare for All.
New York Times: “Iowa’s presidential caucuses disenfranchise huge blocs of voters. The state is 91 percent white. It is not easy to get to, or get around in. But to a greater degree than in recent campaigns, this unrepresentative and idiosyncratic state is proving that it is the only electoral battleground that matters for Democrats from now until caucus night on Feb. 3.”
Virginia state Sen. Amanda Chase (R) ran a Facebook ad warning gun control advocacy groups she is “not afraid to shoot” them down, the HuffPost reports.
Now she’s blaming the language on a digital media company she said was hired to work on it.
“Donald Trump has long heralded Michigan as the crown jewel of his 2016 victory. But the president’s campaign team is increasingly grim about a repeat performance in the traditionally blue Rust Belt state,” Politico reports.
“After a midterm election that decimated the ranks of Michigan Republicans, Trump’s campaign is looking to other battlegrounds he lost last time — such as Minnesota and New Hampshire — that they see as more promising.”
“The assessment illustrates how Trump’s support in the Rust Belt states that propelled him to the presidency has softened, jeopardizing his prospects for a second term.”
“Conservative leaders are circulating data to White House staff that claims adults who vape will turn on President Trump if he follows through with his planned ban on flavored e-cigarettes,” Axios reports..
“The data reveals that the number of adult vapers in key battleground states greatly outweighs the margins by which Trump won those states in 2016 — and they argue it could cost him reelection.”
A Washington Post analysis shows that “nearly 40 percent of the 241 Republicans who were in office in January 2017 are gone or leaving because of election losses, retirements including former House speaker Paul Ryan, and some who are simply quitting in disgust.”
“The vast turnover is a reminder of just how much Trump has remade the GOP — and of the purge of those who dare to oppose him.”
“The study showed that Democrats are most swayed by the arguments that the program would impose a heavy cost on taxpayers and threaten Medicare for senior citizens.”
Sigh. Even Democrats are willing to lie about this, and certainly not in the service of better health care for the people they ask to vote for them.
Also shows just how gullible many Americans are and their insatiable desire to stab themselves in the back.