The Campaign Report – 9/11/19

A new Washington Post-ABC News poll finds President Trump trailing all the leading Democratic contenders. Joe Biden currently does the best, aided by significant support from women.

Biden 54–Trump 38
Sanders 52–Trump 40
Warren 51–Trump 40
Harris 50–Trump 40
Buttigieg 47–Trump 41

Three new national polls all have Trump’s job rating below 40%:

A new Economist/YouGov poll finds Democrats with a double-digit lead in the generic congressional ballot, 49% to 38%.

First Read: “So, nearly a year after the midterms, the president’s approval rating is still stuck in pretty much the same place; Democrats are making more and more races competitive but the bottom still hasn’t fallen out for the GOP; and — in districts with just enough Trump supporters — the president can still show up for a rally and make the difference.”

Jonathan Bernstein: “As Nate Silver noticed Tuesday morning, President Donald Trump’s approval rating has now hit a post-shutdown low. By the end of the day, and after a bunch of new polls, the FiveThirtyEight calculator had it at 41%. That’s not just the lowest since Trump recovered from the shutdown; it’s the worst, outside of the shutdown, since last September.”

“Looked at another way, Trump has been declining since hitting 43% on July 23. In general, a two percentage-point swing in approval rating isn’t much. But this particular two-point swing could be a big deal. A president at 43% could really be at 45% if the polls underestimate his support, and a president at 45% only needs to overperform his approval rating by a small amount to win the election, especially if the Electoral College is tilted in his direction. Of course, those “ifs” could go the other way: Perhaps the polls are overstating support for the president, who will underperform his approval ratings, and then be further hurt by the Electoral College.”

A new CNN poll finds Joe Biden leading the Democratic presidential race with 24%, followed by Elizabeth Warren at 18% and Bernie Sanders at 17%.

Three other candidates have 5% or support or more in the poll: Sen. Kamala Harris (8%), South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg (6%) and former Rep. Beto O’Rourke (5%). The remaining candidates all score 2% or less in the poll.

Dan Bishop (R), best known for writing North Carolina’s controversial “bathroom bill,” narrowly beat out Dan McCready (D) to win a House seat in the state’s 9th congressional district, according to Decision Desk HQ. The election was a re-run of last year’s election after the result was thrown out due to election fraud. With most votes counted, Bishop was ahead by about two percentage points. President Trump won the district by 12 points in 2016.

David Wasserman: “If you had told me yesterday McCready would carry Mecklenberg County — Bishop’s base in Charlotte suburbs — by 12.6% after winning it by just 9.5% in 2018, I would’ve bet he’d win.” “But his poor showing among rural Trump Dems (yes, they’re a real constituency) cost Dems a pickup.”

First Read: “[Republicans] barely won a district that both Donald Trump and Mitt Romney carried by 12 points, suggesting — at least for this one special — that the overall political environment hasn’t changed much since 2018.” “Indeed, the Cook Political Report identifies more than 30 GOP-held House seats that are less friendly to Republicans than NC-9.”

“They include TX-23 (the open Will Hurd seat), PA-1 (Brian Fitzpatrick), MI-6 (Fred Upton), NE-2 (Don Bacon), IL-12 (Mike Bost), OH-1 (Steve Chabot) and FL-16 (Vern Buchanan).”

The Hotline: “If Jon Ossoff’s loss in Georgia was the canary in the 2018 coal mine, Tuesday’s result in North Carolina’s 9th District may be the car wreck for rubbernecking Republicans on the road to 2020. The result indicates that the drastic realignment that unfolded in direct response to President Trump hasn’t reverted. And that should be worrisome for a GOP that, after losing suburban seats across the country, hopes next year to cut into the Democratic House majority, retain Senate control, and reelect its president.”

A new CNN poll finds 71% of voters said that they trusted none or just some of what was directly communicated from the White House.

A new Franklin Pierce University-Boston Herald poll shows Bernie Sanders leading the Democratic field with 29% of likely primary voters, followed by Joe Biden with 21% and Elizabeth Warren at 17%.

The survey shows that the top tier of candidates is far ahead of the pack, with Kamala Harris landing a distant fourth with 6%, followed by Andrew Yang at 5% and Pete Buttigieg lands at 4%.

A new Quinnipiac poll in Texas finds Joe Biden tops the Democratic field with 28%, followed by Elizabeth Warren at 18%, Bernie Sanders at 12% and Beto O’Rourke at 12%.

Said pollster Peter Brown: “Senator Warren’s popularity continues to grow in Texas as well as nationally. But in either case, the changes are small, and Biden holds on to his double digit lead.”

Ryan Lizza: “The first thing you notice at a Joe Biden event is the age: Many of the reporters covering him are really young. Biden is not. The press corps, or so the Biden campaign sees it, is culturally liberal and highly attuned to modern issues around race and gender and social justice. Biden is not. The reporters are Extremely Online. Biden couldn’t tell you what TikTok is.”

“Inside the Biden campaign, it is the collision between these two worlds that advisers believe explain why his White House run often looks like a months-long series of gaffes. For a team in command of the Democratic primary, at least for now, they’re awfully resentful of how their man is being covered. And yet supremely confident that they, not the woke press that pounces on Biden’s every seeming error and blight in his record, has a vastly superior understanding of the Democratic electorate. This is the central paradox of Biden’s run: He’s been amazingly durable. But he gets no respect from the people who make conventional wisdom on the left.”

According to a new NPR/PBS/Marist poll, 75% of Democratic voters now say they have a favorable impression of Elizabeth Warren — that’s up from 53% in January, the last time the poll asked the favorability of candidates or potential candidates. That’s a whopping 22-point jump.

What’s more, those saying they have a negative impression has gone down from 17% to 11%. Said pollster Lee Miringoff: “Warren seems to be on the verge of starting to make significant and serious inroads into this contest.”

Associated Press: “Republicans in Iowa and New Hampshire are vowing to hold a caucus and primary next year, even as party leaders in a handful of other states have canceled their contests to help smooth President Trump’s path to reelection.”

Columbia State: “Beyond the obstacles posed by… Trump and his loyal GOP establishment, Republican Mark Sanford’s upstart presidential campaign already has a glaring problem, experts say.”

“The former South Carolina governor and congressman is banking on his own intuition to secure victories in primary states where he is eligible to compete, staffing his operation with a ‘band of volunteers’ with no expertise in his political history or experience running national campaigns.”

CNN’s Dana Bash said that the North Carolina special election shows that President Trump’s campaign and the RNC have been building “an unbelievably huge war chest” in an effort to maximize rural voter turnout in 2020, The Hill reports.

Said Bash: “The president is the president because people came out to vote in places in the rural areas of North Carolina, Wisconsin, Michigan who hadn’t voted in some time. And if they did vote, probably they voted for a Democrat before.”

She added: “The machine that they’re building to identify those voters, get them out, is going to be enormous.”

Ryan Matsumoto: “While McCready outperformed his 2018 margin in suburban Mecklenburg County and roughly matched his 2018 margin in exurban Union County, he underperformed in the other more rural counties stretching to the Southeast.”

Former Rep. Darrell Issa (R-CA) told Roll Call that he intends to run for Congress in Rep. Duncan Hunter’s (R-CA) district if he is not confirmed to a position in the Trump administration by winter.

Said Issa: “There’s nothing wrong with his voting. But he is injured in a way that, according to most polls I’ve seen — all polls I’ve seen — he cannot win reelection. And as a Republican, I don’t want to lose a seat that is clearly a seat that we need to have to get back in the majority.”

Delaware politics from a liberal, progressive and Democratic perspective. Keep Delaware Blue.

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