The Campaign Report – 8/27/19

A new Morning Consult tracking poll finds the Democratic Primary race essentially unchanged, and it has not found the big shakeup that Monmouth found yesterday. Biden still leads, and is in fact up 2 points from the previous Monmouth poll, at 33%, with Bernie Sanders at 20%, Warren 15%, Harris 8%, Buttigieg 5%, O’Rourke 3%, Booker 3% and Yang 2%.

The favorite presidential candidate of Democrats is actually not polling leader Joe Biden: It’s Sen. Elizabeth Warren, who sports the highest net favorability rating (+54 percentage points vs. +52 percentage points), according to FiveThirtyEight.

Indeed, according to The Economist’s 2020 primary tracker, slightly more people are considering voting for Warren than are considering Biden, even though Biden is currently the most popular first choice.

President Trump’s net approval rating has plunged in every key battleground state since taking office in January 2017, according to Morning Consult’s tracking poll.

An internal poll from the campaign of Andy Beshear (D) shows the Democratic challenger leading Kentucky Gov. Matt Bevin (R) by 9 percentage points in the race for governor, 48% to 39%, with a little over two months until the election, the Louisville Courier Journal reports.

The results closely resemble an internal poll conducted by the Democratic Attorneys General Association a week earlier, which found Beshear leading Bevin by the exact same margin.

Joe Walsh, a former Republican congressman who launched a primary challenge against President Trump, told MSNBC that he wasn’t a racist but had said “racist things.” Said Walsh: “I wouldn’t call myself a racist, but I would say I’ve said racist things on Twitter. There’s no doubt about it. And an apology is not enough.”

A new Roanoke College poll find found that 53% of potential Virginia voters said they disapproved of President Trump’s job performance, while just 27% said they approved — a new low.

“The president has been a drag on Republicans in statewide elections since 2016. This year is especially significant because all 140 seats in the General Assembly are on the Nov. 5 ballot. Democrats hope to take control of the legislature, with Republicans defending razor-thin majorities of 20 to 19 in the Senate and 51 to 48 in the House of Delegates, with one vacancy in each chamber.”

Joe Walsh, who has announced a Republican primary challenge to President Trump, was among the high-profile U.S. political figures ensnared by Sacha Baron Cohen last year when he was convinced to speak “about the benefits of teaching children as young as preschoolers how to use guns in what was, unbeknown to them, a fictional program,” the Washington Post reports.

Said Walsh in the video: “The intensive three-week Kinderguardian course introduces specially selected children from 12 to 4 years old to pistols, rifles, semiautomatics and a rudimentary knowledge of mortars. In less than a month — less than a month — a first-grader can become a first grenade-er.”

Walsh then provides the clincher at the end of the video: “Happy shooting, kids.”

New York Times: “He is one poll away from becoming the 11th Democrat to qualify for the September debate ahead of a Wednesday deadline. If he qualifies, he will prevent all the top contenders from sharing the same stage, as the field will be split over two nights. If he falls short, he is on track to make the stage in October.”

“Older, white, male and wildly wealthy, Mr. Steyer would seem an unlikely messenger for a Democratic Party passionately debating racial and gender diversity, generational change and inequalities in American society. But his status as a virtual one-man ‘super PAC’ is already upending the carefully laid strategies of Democratic rivals who now must grapple with the fact that they are unlikely to have the airwaves to themselves in Iowa or New Hampshire.”

Politico: “Warren is enjoying a comeback because she has convinced many skittish progressives that she won’t let Trump disrupt her relentless focus on policy solutions. And she has convinced many Native American leaders that her policy proposals for indigenous communities are more important than what she has said in the past about her ancestry.”

“But because Warren’s comeback has relied on restoring her standing on the left, she has not done anything to address concerns potentially percolating among swing voters. A detailed white paper on Native American policy has no bearing on whether a moderate white suburbanite believes Warren is of good character. And since Warren has apologized for her past claims, she remains open to the charge she was dishonest when, during her academic career, she relied on nothing more than family lore to identify herself as Native American.”

Joe Biden defends the Affordable Care Act in a new ad running in Iowa.

Said Biden: “Obamacare is personal to me. When I see the president try to tear down, and others propose to replace it and start over that’s personal to me too. We’ve got to build on what we did because every American deserves affordable health care.”

“The GOP majority in the Senate is shaping up as a firewall for Republicans who are worried that President Trump might falter and lose the White House next year,” The Hill reports.

“Republicans see winning back the House majority as a tough climb in 2020, and head-to-head matchups between Trump and various Democratic presidential contenders show the president behind his potential challengers.”

“Though Republicans overall are optimistic about Trump’s reelection prospects, they see holding the Senate, where they have a 53-47 edge, as crucial given the shape of races for the White House and lower chamber. And they’re playing their cards accordingly.”

“Joe Biden’s younger brother told potential business partners that the former vice president would help their firm land business with court systems and would incorporate their health care model into his 2020 presidential campaign,” Politico reports.

“The allegations are consistent with others made over the years that relatives of Biden have sought to enrich themselves off of his public service. But they go further, representing the first explicit claims that James Biden offered to have the former vice president use his clout to further private business interests.

“The allegations come in sworn declarations made by executives at firms suing Biden’s brother that were filed in federal court on Friday. They do not allege any wrongdoing by Joe Biden or indicate that the former vice president had knowledge of his brother’s alleged promises.”

In the 206 counties that voted for Barack Obama twice before backing Donald Trump in 2016, Joe Biden has fewer donors than three primary opponents, the Daily Beast reports.

According to an analysis of Federal Election Commission data, 12,040 donors from those Obama-Trump counties made 19,885 donations to Biden during the first six months of 2019. By contrast, Elizabeth Warren had 13,674 donors make 26,298 donations from those counties and Pete Buttigieg had 14,294 donors make 23,320 donations from those counties.

All three of them trail Bernie Sanders when it comes to donors from Obama-Trump counties. Sanders had 33,185 donors make 81,841 donations in those areas, “a haul that his team was eager to tout.”

Quinnipiac says it will release a Democratic presidential race poll tomorrow at 8 a.m., which might be the final chance for Democratic candidates to make the DNC debate criteria. Tom Steyer needs to reach at least 2% support in this poll to make the cut.

If this is indeed the last poll before tomorrow’s qualification deadline, it means the rest of the candidates are officially out of luck.

Delaware politics from a liberal, progressive and Democratic perspective. Keep Delaware Blue.

10 comments on “The Campaign Report – 8/27/19

  1. cassandram

    Fully 12 percent of people who voted for Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., in the 2016 Democratic presidential primaries voted for President Trump in the general election.

    And for unsurprising reasons too.
    Nearly half of Sanders-Trump voters disagree with the idea that “white people have advantages.”

    • Thanks for that link. There’s lots of interesting stuff in there. Surprisingly, it didn’t go into the misogyny factor, which probably accounts for a big chunk of that other half.

    • RE Vanella

      How many Clinton primary voters in 2008 voted for McCain?

      • RE Vanella

        Since the HRC primary to McCain in the general in 2008 was double the rate of Sanders to Trump I guess I hat 2008 cohort are racist?

      • cassandram

        Who cares? The subject here is Bernie to Trump voters. And the number isn’t as alarming as the major reason.

  2. cassandram

    Joe Walsh can go to hell. There’s not much daylight between him and the GRIFTUS in terms of racist leanings — Walsh just promises to not be an embarrassment in the way the GRIFTUS is. Except he already is. He’s just trying to create a higher profile for himself.

  3. “Since Warren has apologized for her past claims, she remains open to the charge she was dishonest when, during her academic career, she relied on nothing more than family lore to identify herself as Native American.”

    The corporate media really, really wants this to be true, so they keep saying it, when the real truth is that they’re scared shitless of paying higher taxes under Warren.

  4. cassandram

    “There is more discontent with Trump, though it’s under the surface, than there was with Reagan … [But] there’s no realistic way to take advantage of that disgruntlement with these minor candidates.”

    This is why I take the disapproval ratings of this guy with a big grain of salt. GOP will vote for him and am not sure their disapproval will dampen their enthusiasm.

    • It’s not GOP voters that matter, it’s the R-leaning independents.

      • cassandram

        Who will typically vote for an R. Or a conservative D at best.

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