The Campaign Report – 8/19/19

A new Public Opinion Strategies (R) survey finds that 72% of suburban women think gun laws should be stricter, compared to 4% percent who said they should be less strict and 23% who said they should be kept as they are now.

In addition, 55% said they think stricter gun laws would help prevent gun violence. And 90% support requiring universal background checks for gun purchases at gun shows or other private sales, which would require all gun owners to file with a national firearms registry.

Furthermore, 76% said they would ban the purchase and use of semi-automatic assault-style weapons like the AK-47 and the AR-15.

It’s starting to become the invisible Biden campaign.

Politico: “Hundreds of DNC delegates will be here next weekend for a three-day gathering that gives them a chance to meet and hear from 13 presidential contenders — though former Vice President Joe Biden, the party’s front-runner, isn’t scheduled to be among the candidates.”

“Biden also bypassed the last big party meeting in San Francisco — the convention of the California Democratic Party, the nation’s largest state party, which drew more than 4,000 people in June.”

Los Angeles Times: “While both Warren and Sanders are targeting voters on the left, they are drawing support from very different demographic groups.”

“Warren’s coalition is more female, better educated and more affluent. Sanders has stronger appeal to young voters, people without a college degree and the less affluent. That puts Sanders in competition with Biden for blue-collar voters.”

A new Reuters analysis of public opinion over the last four years suggests that President Trump’s brand of white identity politics may be less effective in the 2020 election campaign. “It showed that people who rejected racial stereotypes were more interested in voting in the 2020 general election than those who expressed stronger levels of anti-black or anti-Hispanic biases.”

“In 2016, it was the reverse. The Reuters analysis shows that Trump’s narrow win came at a time when Americans with strong anti-black opinions were the more politically engaged group.”

A new Pew Research Center survey finds that only 50% of American adults think colleges and universities are having a positive effect on the way things are going in the country these days, while 38% say they are having a negative impact – up from 26% in 2012.

“The increase in negative views has come almost entirely from Republicans and independents who lean Republican. From 2015 to 2019, the share saying colleges have a negative effect on the country went from 37% to 59% among this group. Over that same period, the views of Democrats and independents who lean Democratic have remained largely stable and overwhelmingly positive.”

Washington Gov. Jay Inslee (D), who has centered his 2020 campaign around climate change policy, was not one of the nine Democratic presidential candidates who qualified for an invite to CNN’s climate change town hall in September,  Axios reports. CNN said it would extend invitations to candidates who reach 2% in at least four DNC-approved polls conducted between June 28 and Aug. 21. Sen. Kamala Harris was invited, but declined due to a scheduling conflict.

FEC Chair Ellen Weintraub told CNN that “there is no evidence of rampant voter fraud in 2016 or really in any previous election,” despite President Trump’s claims. Weintraub stressed such statements from the president can cause “people to lose faith” and “to question the results.”

Carlo Invernizzi-Accetti: “Despite a seemingly unending series of gaffes and unimpressive performances in the two Democratic primary debates so far, Joe Biden retains a solid lead in almost all polls. He’s been consistently between 10 to 20 percentage points ahead of his main rivals nationally and also enjoys comfortable margins in Iowa and New Hampshire. By most counts, even if Bernie Sanders’ and Elizabeth Warren’s projected scores were to be combined – which almost never happens when a candidate drops out – it still wouldn’t be enough to match Biden’s projected score.”

“The reason for this is to be found in what many consider Biden’s main weakness. He’s an old-school candidate, with a policy platform and campaigning style that seem to belong to another political era. Even Barack Obama originally chose him as vice-presidential candidate to reassure electors with a message of compromise and reliability. And that was nearly 12 years ago – before anyone even thought Donald Trump could stand a chance as president!”

Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) said that she would be open to serving as the running mate to the eventual Democratic presidential nominee should her faltering White House bid flame out short of a primary victory, Politico reports.

Gillibrand (D-N.Y.) declined to say whether she opposes a comeback by former Sen. Al Franken, suggesting that the Minnesota Democrat should make that decision himself, the Washington Post reports.

Said Gillibrand: “We’re a country that believes in second chances. We believe in someone who has humility, who comes forward to say they’re sorry and they have paid consequences and want to reemerge — that’s always there for everyone. And that’s a decision for someone to make themselves. It’s not my decision. It’s certainly not my responsibility. It’s for someone else to make their own judgments and decisions. But there’s always a path for redemption for anybody.”

Boston Globe: “The North Shore congressman has been crisscrossing the early presidential-primary states like any of the viable candidates. Just last week, he hit Cedar Rapids and Des Moines, before heading to Weare, Exeter, and Hillsborough in New Hampshire. He ate corn dogs and ice cream.”

“And America ignored him — as it has, resolutely, since he announced his candidacy in April. In poll after poll after poll, Moulton has registered at zero percent. Yes, zero. The same number your dog or cat would poll. Yet the Harvard-educated US Marine Corps veteran soldiers on. He has not approached any of the benchmarks for getting onto the overcrowded Democratic debate stage.”

President Trump slammed his preferred news network over recent unfavorable poll results, Politico reports, saying: “There’s something going on at Fox, I’ll tell you right now. And I’m not happy with it.” He added: “And I think Fox is making a big mistake. Because, you know, I’m the one that calls the shots on that — on the really big debates.”

A new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll finds that just 2% of voters say they’re going to vote for an independent candidate next year. If that percentage holds through next November, it would be a significant decline from the 5.7% that three third party candidates — Jill Stein, Gary Johnson and Evan McMullin — won in 2016. It would also be much more in line with the 1.5% third party support shown in the 2012 election.

Delaware politics from a liberal, progressive and Democratic perspective. Keep Delaware Blue.

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