The Campaign Report – 7/17/19

A new Quinnipiac poll in California finds Kamala Harris leading the Democratic presidential field with 23%, followed by Joe Biden at 21%, Bernie Sanders at 18% and Elizabeth Warren at 16%.

Trailing far behind are Pete Buttigieg at 3% and  Andrew Yang at 2%. There are four Democratic contenders with 1% and 15 candidates scoring less than 1%.

Also interesting: 45% say that Biden has the best chance of beating President Trump, with 12% for Sanders, 11% for Harris and 8% for Warren.

A new Reuter/Ipsos poll finds President Trump’s net approval among Republicans rose by 5 percentage points to 72%, after his racist attack on four Democratic lawmakers. Trump has lost support, however, with Democrats and independents.

Trump’s overall approval remained unchanged over the past week, 41% o 55%

“President Trump’s campaign has boasted about efforts to expand the 2020 electoral map and compete in far-flung Democratic territory from Oregon to New Mexico while along the way winning over some of the voters who have been turned off by aspects of his presidency,” the Washington Post reports.

“But the president has held all of his campaign rallies this year in states he won in 2016 — including Florida and Pennsylvania, with another set for North Carolina on Wednesday night. And he has shown no interest in toning down the incendiary rhetoric that has made him unpopular among black, Hispanic and female voters.”

“Facing stubbornly low poll numbers, an energized Democratic opposition and the prospect of record-high voter turnout, the campaign is mounting an all-out defensive effort to protect the states Trump won in 2016, while also trying to expand the map.”

A new Politico/Morning Consult poll finds a slim majority of voters supports the mass deportation raids previewed by President Trump last week, 51% to 35%.

“It might seem like improvisational madness when President Trump tells American citizens in Congress to ‘go back’ where they came from, but those close to Trump say there’s a lot of calculation behind his race-baiting,” Axios reports.

“It’s central to his 2020 strategy, they say. Trump’s associates predict more, not less, of the race-baiting madness.”

The math: “Trump knows that in 2016, he won the white vote by 20+ points. He hopes he can crank their turnout even higher, especially among older, white evangelicals. He knows most of those voters are unlikely to ditch him, no matter how offensive his comments.”

Also important: “He watches Fox News and knows AOC, in particular, is catnip to old, white voters, especially men. She is young, Hispanic, female and a democratic socialist — a 4-for-4 grievance magnet.”

A new Washington Post/Reforma poll finds Mexicans are deeply frustrated with immigrants after a year of heightened migration from Central America through the country.

More than 6 in 10 Mexicans say migrants are a burden on their country because they take jobs and benefits that should belong to Mexicans. A 55% majority supports deporting migrants who travel through Mexico to reach the United States.

“Sen. Bernie Sanders plans to challenge his Democratic presidential rivals Wednesday to refuse campaign donations from executives and lobbyists of health insurance and pharmaceutical companies, escalating a growing conflict over health care with Joe Biden and among Democrats more broadly,” the Washington Post reports.

CNN: “Sanders’ speech caps off a contentious week that saw Joe Biden unveil his own health care proposal, which would add muscle to Obamacare and create a public insurance option. During the rollout, Biden has leveled attacks — some of them misleading — against Medicare for All and what a transition to a single-payer program would mean for people covered under the existing system.”

“The NRCC, with the blessing of House Republican leaders, has adopted a no-holds-barred strategy to win back the House majority next year, borrowing heavily from President Trump’s playbook in deploying such taunts and name-calling,” the New York Times reports.

“The offensive hinges largely on the relatively facile notion that by tagging all House Democrats as socialists, anti-Semites or far-left extremists, they will be able to alienate swing-state voters. On Tuesday night, after the House voted to condemn as racist President Trump’s attacks on four congresswoman, the campaign arm’s communications team deluged reporters’ inboxes with message after message calling vulnerable Democratic lawmakers ‘deranged.’”

“Their tactics have discomforted some Republicans and highlighted the struggle in the party over how much to lean into the tenor of politics forged by their leader.”

“The day after Joe Biden tanked in the first round of Democratic presidential debates, his campaign hired a prominent speech coach for the 36-year senator and 8-year vice president,” the Washington Examiner reports.

“Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on Wednesday signaled that he is open to considering a run for an open Senate seat in Kansas, months after he declared that he had ruled out a bid,” the Washington Post reports.

Stuart Rothenberg: “There is no doubt that Trump needs to motivate his base to win a second term, and his tweets and comments about immigrants and ‘socialism’ are, at least in part, intended to energize his loyal supporters and demonize the entire Democratic Party. On one level, that certainly makes sense…”

“But too much of Trump’s rhetoric does something else that actually undermines his prospects — it enflames Democrats of all stripes, reminding them why they feel they must defeat the president next year.”

“In other words, Trump is a turnout machine for the Democrats, as well.”

Delaware politics from a liberal, progressive and Democratic perspective. Keep Delaware Blue.

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