First Read: “Fifty-four percent of Democratic primary voters say they prefer a nominee who proposes larger-scale policies that might cost more and be harder to pass — but could still result in major change. Among these voters, Warren leads the pack (at 29%), and she’s followed by Bernie Sanders (18%), Biden (16%) and Kamala Harris (14%).”
“By contrast, 41% of Dem primary voters say they want a nominee who pushes for smaller-scale policies that cost less and might be easier to pass — but that bring less change. And among these voters, Biden holds a substantial lead (at 35%), followed by Harris (14%), Warren (8%), Pete Buttigieg (8%) and Sanders (7%).”
“Bottom line: The big-change Democratic voters outnumber the small-change ones. But you can see a situation how Warren and Sanders could split the former group, and how Biden might lap the field with the latter. That’s Biden’s path to victory, even in Iowa — if his candidacy holds up.”
First Read sees four tiers emerging in the Democratic presidential race based on the new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll:
- The Top 5: Biden (26 percent), Warren (19 percent), Harris (13 percent), Sanders (13 percent) and Buttigieg (7 percent).
- The 2 Percenters (the threshold to make the September debates): Andrew Yang (2 percent), Beto O’Rourke (2 percent).”
- The 1 Percenters: Amy Klobuchar, Julian Castro, Cory Booker, Jay Inslee, Marianne Williamson, John Delaney, John Hickenlooper and Michael Bennet.
- The less-than-1-percenters: Everyone else.
“The good news for Booker, Klobuchar, Castro and even O’Rourke is that they get Democratic voters in our poll to say want to learn more about these candidates.”
“But that bad news for those in the 1 percent and below is that it looks like this field is going to winnow fast.”
Politico: “In poll after poll, Sanders appeals to lower-income and less-educated people; Warren beats Sanders among those with postgraduate degrees. Sanders performs better with men, Warren with women. Younger people who vote less frequently are more often in Sanders’ camp; seniors who follow politics closely generally prefer Warren.”
“Sanders also has won over more African Americans than Warren: He earns a greater share of support from black voters than any candidate in the race except for Joe Biden, according to the latest Morning Consult surveys.”
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