Elections National

The Campaign Report – 6/19/19

A new Monmouth poll find Joe Biden leading the Democratic presidential race with 33%, followed by Elizabeth Warren at 15%, Bernie Sanders at 14%, Kamala Harris at 8%, Pete Buttigieg at 5% Beto O’Rourke at 3%, Cory Booker at 2% and Andrew Yang at 2%.

Said pollster Patrick Murray: “Biden maintains his lead but there is plenty percolating in the tier right below him. Next week will provide the first opportunity for voters to see these candidates side by side. Well, at least they’ll see some of them side by side.”

A new USA Today/Suffolk poll finds Joe Biden leading the Democratic presidential field with 30%, followed by Bernie Sanders at 15%, Elizabeth Warren at 10%, Pete Buttigieg at 9%, Kamala Harris at 8% and Cory Booker at 2%. No other candidate received more than 1% support.

“When asked which candidates they would be ‘excited’ to see running, Democrats and independents showed a surge of enthusiasm since the USA Today/Suffolk survey in March for Buttigieg (up 24 points to 31%), Warren (up five points to 37%) and Harris (up four points to 40%). That sense of excitement had dropped since March for Biden (down eight points to 51%) and Beto O’Rourke (down eight points to 26%).”

A new Economist/YouGov poll finds Democrats with an 8-point edge over Republicans in the generic 2020 congressional ballot, 47% to 39%.

A new Avalanche Strategy survey finds that 97% of likely Democratic voters believe it is very or extremely important to beat President Trump in the 2020 election. However, just 28% of likely Democratic voters believe that a Democratic nominee will certainly win in 2020.

That’s led a significant segment of likely Democratic voters to choose their preferred candidates based on their belief about who can win. In this survey — and in most others — Joe Biden is leading the Democratic field because many Democrats see him as the most electable.

While “electability” is difficult to define and measure in the abstract, this survey tried to take electability out of consideration. The pollsters first asked a typical “horse race” question about who the voter would support if the primary election were today. Later, they asked voters to imagine that they have a magic wand and can make any of the candidates president —  they don’t have to beat anyone or win the election — and then asked who the respondent would choose.

Not surprisingly, the Democratic presidential race tightened significantly. When choosing a preferred president without considering electability, Elizabeth Warren leads the field with 21%, followed by Joe Biden at 19%, Bernie Sanders at 19%, Pete Buttifieg at 16%, Kamala Harris at 12% and Beto O’Rourke at 4%.

Amy Walter notes the consensus explanation for Sen. Elizabeth Warren’s “rise from the ashes is that her embrace of policy and substance and her ‘grind-it-out’ attitude is paying off.” But, she notes, there are several other reasons for her rehabilitation:

  • Her biggest liability — the controversy over her decision to take a DNA test to prove her Cherokee ancestry — is no longer part of the daily political conversation.
  • The more that Sanders leans into democratic socialism, the more Warren is able to position herself as a more ‘palatable’ disruptor; one who wants to expand government, but who also calls herself a capitalist.
  • Finally, in a party where more than 55 percent of the electorate is female, it was only a matter of time before a woman broke into the top-tier.

A RNC official told ABC News that President Trump’s re-election effort had raised $24.8 million “in less than 24 hours.”

Ron Brownstein: “Should Biden prevail next year, he would become the Democratic nominee exactly 50 years after he won his first elected office, to the New Castle County Council in Delaware in 1970. It would be 48 years after Biden first won a federal office by capturing a US Senate seat from Delaware in 1972.”

“No candidate from any major party has captured a presidential nomination for the first time that many years after he or she first won elected office since the formation of the modern party system in 1828, according to a review I conducted of presidential races stretching back to then.”

Joe Biden, in recalling the “civility” of the Senate during his days as a lawmaker in the 1970s and ’80s, cited his experience with two segregationist Southern senators, NBC News reports.

Biden brought up the names of Sens. James Eastland of Mississippi and Herman Talmadge of Georgia, both Democrats who were staunchly opposed to desegregation.

Said Biden: “Well guess what? At least there was some civility. We got things done. We didn’t agree on much of anything. We got things done. We got it finished. But today, you look at the other side and you’re the enemy. Not the opposition — the enemy. We don’t talk to each other anymore.”

Jonathan Swan: “There are two big reasons President Trump’s campaign chose Orlando, Fla., for last night’s official re-election launch, a source tells Axios: the optics of a huge spillover crowd and, more importantly, a boon for the campaign’s digital operation.”

“The Trump campaign has been vacuuming up an extraordinary amount of voter data at its rallies. When you register for a ticket, you hand over basic info. Then when you show up and get your ticket scanned, you tell the campaign more about your intensity and propensity to show up and vote. The source said the campaign is trying to vacuum up as much Florida voter information as early as possible, so that key state can be squared away.”

A new Politico/Morning Consult survey finds that 67% of Democratic voters believe Congress should launch impeachment proceedings against President Trump, an increase from the 59% of Democrats who favored impeachment in an April survey.

Politico: “There was a time not so long ago when leading Democrats warned that Elizabeth Warren’s ‘fantasy-based blue-state populism’ risked leading the party to ruin. But in a revealing tell of how far her campaign has come since its early February launch, some unlikely voices in the center of the party are growing more comfortable with the idea of Warren as the nominee.”

“Joe Biden told affluent donors Tuesday that he wanted their support and — perhaps unlike some other Democratic presidential candidates — wouldn’t be making them political targets because of their wealth,” Bloomberg reports.

Said Biden: “Remember, I got in trouble with some of the people on my team, on the Democratic side, because I said, you know, what I’ve found is rich people are just as patriotic as poor people. Not a joke. I mean, we may not want to demonize anybody who’s made money.”

Delaware politics from a liberal, progressive and Democratic perspective. Keep Delaware Blue.

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