Elections National

The Campaign Report – 6/6/19

A new Reuters/Ipsos poll finds Joe Biden leading Donald Trump nationally in a possible presidential match up, 50% to 36%, among registered voters.

Other match ups: Bernie Sanders leads Trump 46% to 37, and Elizabeth Warren leads Trump, 43% to 38%.

The same poll on the Democratic primary: Biden 31–Sanders 14–Warren 9–Harris 6–Buttigieg 5–O’Rourke 3–Booker 2–Klobuchar 2–Castro 1–Gabbard 1–Hickenlooper 1–Yang 1–Ryan 1–de Blasio 1. Everyone else (Gillibrand, Bullock, Inslee, Delaney, Williamson, Messam, Swalwell, Moulton, Bennet and Gravel all received less than 1%).

A new SurveyMonkey poll finds 54% of American voters agree with Rep. Justin Amash (R-MI) that President Trump “committed impeachable offenses.”

Playbook: “Over the last day, there’s been a pile-on on Joe Biden — Beto O’Rourke, Elizabeth Warren and others have ganged up against the former VP over his support of the Hyde Amendment, language that prohibits most federal funding for abortion.”

“But… If you are or have been a member of Congress — 15 people in this field — and you’ve voted for big spending packages, there’s a pretty good chance that you’ve also voted for the amendment.”

“Elizabeth Warren voted for this bill twice. So did Michael Bennet, Cory Booker, Kirsten Gillibrand, Kamala Harris, Amy Klobuchar, Beto O’Rourke, Eric Swalwell and others. Bernie Sanders voted no.”

“Montana Gov. Steve Bullock is currently on the outside looking in, one of the foremost candidates in danger of missing the stage after what his campaign calls the DNC’s 11th-hour ‘unmasking’ of ‘arbitrary’ polling rules,” Politico reports.

“Bullock’s status isn’t the only question remaining in the final week of qualifying, but the latest update comes after the Democratic National Committee provided… additional guidance about its polling criteria — the first time the party committee has publicly addressed questions surrounding the previously announced guidelines.”

Politico: “Twenty-four hours after Joe Biden’s campaign was taken to task for lifting portions of a climate change plan without citation, it’s clear that the former vice president has plenty of company. A sampling of policy proposals from Biden’s leading rivals suggests the lifting of direct text from academic papers, think tanks or policy institutes — and the cribbing of facts without attribution — is fairly widespread on 2020 campaign websites.”

“A Politico review found previously published material on the official campaign websites of Sens. Kamala Harris and Bernie Sanders, as well as frequent use of facts and data without citation on a number of others.”

Kyle Kondik: “So the argument now is that because impeachment didn’t work for Republicans in 1998, it won’t work for Democrats in 2020. That may or may not be the case if Democrats do pursue impeachment, but if 1998 is going to keep coming up, that election itself merits a closer look.”

“While it’s impossible to know what would’ve happened in some alternate universe where Republicans did not open impeachment proceedings of Clinton prior to the election, there’s some reason to believe that the effects of that decision were not as electorally significant as popularly remembered.”

“While impeachment probably did hurt the Republicans in some districts, it may have been that Clinton’s popularity in a time of peace and prosperity would have insulated Democrats from big losses even if the GOP had held off on impeachment.”

Nate Silver: “A recent YouGov poll, which asked Democrats to list all the candidates they were considering rather than requiring them to pick just one, also seems to suggest that Sanders has a relatively high floor of support. Among Democrats who were considering only one candidate, 28 percent were considering only Sanders, and 27 percent were considering only Biden. Everyone else was in the single digits on this question.”

“Here’s the catch, though: Only 28 percent of Democrats fell into the category of considering only one candidate. (By comparison, 67 percent are still considering multiple candidates, and 5 percent aren’t considering any current candidates.) So Sanders isn’t getting 28 percent of 100 percent — he’s getting 28 percent of 28 percent. That means just 8 percent of the overall Democratic electorate truly falls into the ‘Bernie or bust’ category.”

“So while Sanders might have a slightly higher floor than other candidates — about half of the voters who currently prefer Sanders are onlyconsidering Sanders — it’s still pretty low in the broader scheme of things. About two-thirds of Democratic voters are still up for grabs, and they’re probably going to take their time to make a decision.”

Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA) “is scaling up her focus on Iowa, promising to bring on at least 65 paid staffers by July and launch a summer organizing push targeted at the precinct level,” the Des Moines Register reports.

“Harris so far has lagged behind some campaigns, which have sought to aggressively add staff in the state. In April, her campaign tallied just five paid staffers here while others, such as Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, had brought on nearly 50.”

Delaware politics from a liberal, progressive and Democratic perspective. Keep Delaware Blue.

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