Elections National

The Campaign Report – 6/5/2019

A new Quinnipiac poll in Texas finds Vice President Biden beating President Trump, which 6 other Democratic candidates are in competitive races with the President. A poll out of Michigan shows Biden and Sanders destroying Trump, which several other Democratic candidates beat him in closer races, while Justin Amash as a third party candidate would make things interesting. Nationally, Biden’s lead is lower according to a YouGov poll, while Warren is about neck and neck with Sanders for 2nd Place.

TEXAS–Biden 48–Trump 44 | Trump 46–Warren 45 | Trump 46–Buttigieg 44 | Trump 48–O’Rourke 45 | Trump 47–Sanders 44 | Trump 46–Castro 43 | Trump 47–Harris 43

MICHIGANDetroit News/WDIV-TV–Biden 53–Trump 41 | Sanders 53–Trump 41 | Buttigieg 47–Trump 41 | Warren 47–Trump 43 | Harris 47–Trump 44

MICHIGAN THREE WAYDetroit News/WDIV-TV–Biden 45–Trump 39–Amash 10

NATIONALYouGov–Biden 27–Sanders 15– Warren 12% Buttigieg 10% Harris 9% Booker 2% de Blasio 2% O’Rourke 2% Bullock 1% Delaney 1% Gabbard 1% Hickenlooper 1% Klobuchar 1% Yang 1%

TRUMP APPROVALGallup: “After rising to 46% in April, President Trump’s job approval rating skidded in May, first dipping to 42% and now to 40%. His latest rating is similar to the 39% he received in March and matches his average since taking office.” Meanwhile, a Morning Consult poll shows President Trump’s approval rates are not very good in some states he needs to win in 2020:

  • New Hampshire: 39% to 58%
  • Wisconsin: 42% to 55%
  • Michigan: 42% to 54%
  • Iowa: 42% to 54%
  • Arizona: 45% to 51%
  • Pennsylvania 45% to 52%
  • Ohio: 46% to 50%
  • North Carolina: 46% to 50%
  • Florida: 48% to 48%
  • Indiana: 49% to 46%

Dylan Scott: “It’s a grim picture. Wisconsin and Michigan were critical Midwestern pieces of Trump’s Electoral College puzzle and he is now deeply unpopular in both states. Pennsylvania was maybe his most surprising win in 2016, and now he is seven points underwater. Perhaps Trump can take solace in his even job approval rating in Florida, but that is the only swing state where the president looks as strong as he did on Election Day 2016. Everywhere else, his support has deteriorated.”

“Maybe the most striking finding is in Iowa, where Trump beat Hillary Clinton by nearly 10 points.”

A new Emerson College poll in North Carolina finds Sen. Tom Tillis (R) trails possible challenger state Sen. Erica Smith (D) by seven points, 39% to 46%, with 15% still undecided. The same poll finds the Democratic Governor Roy Cooper leading Republican challenger Dan Forest 52% to 38%.

Jonathan Swan: “Trump allies say that when 2020 candidates to Biden’s left inevitably start hitting him on his free-trade past, Republicans will piggyback to try to undermine him ahead of a potential general election fight in the Rust Belt.”

“Expect them to begin asking questions like: What specifically will Biden do with China? Will he lift President Trump’s tariffs? How does Biden defend his past advocacy for NAFTA and the Trans-Pacific Partnership?”

Former Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe (D), who was popular when he left office last year, is hinting to Democrats that he may run for governor again in 2021, Axios reports.

“Beto O’Rourke issued an ambitious plan to revamp the U.S. voting system by cracking down on voter suppression and getting an additional 35 million people to the ballot box by the 2024 elections,” Reuters reports.

“A key part of O’Rourke’s plan would be to set term limits for politicians, to give young people incentive to vote for new and fresher candidates. He proposes limiting membership of the U.S. House of Representatives and Senate to 12 years, and requiring Supreme Court justices – currently appointed for life – to step down after 18 years.”

A new Morning Consult poll found that 14% of Democratic voters listed women’s issues as their top priority, compared to just 6% that did so around the start of May.

“Although most voters still rank the economy and health care as their top priorities, that uptick marks a major increase in focus on women’s issues, a policy area that encompasses reproductive rights, pay equity, workplace discrimination, and maternal mortality.”

“This spike comes in the wake of numerous states passing abortion laws that sharply restrict women’s reproductive rights, drawing renewed attention to the need to defend abortion protections.”

A new Pew Research poll finds Americans view made-up news and information as a bigger problem than other critical issues, including terrorism, immigration, climate change and racism.

An overwhelming majority of Americans (68%) believe made-up news and information has a big impact on their trust in government and more than half (54%) of Americans say it impacts their confidence in other Americans.

Geoffrey Skelley: “It’s been 60 years since a new state entered the union, but now Democrats and liberals are accelerating efforts to gain statehood for Washington, D.C., and Puerto Rico. One of their motivations is the future of the U.S. Senate, which is currently biased toward the Republican Party. The logic goes that if Democrats can get unified control of the federal government after the 2020 election, they could push through statehood for both, adding four more seats to the Senate, and all four would likely be Democratic leaning.”

“That might seem far-fetched, but the U.S. has a rich history of partisan state-making.”

The Atlantic: “Biden has told friends that part of the reason for sticking to an ultra-light schedule is to create more time for debate prep, which for him tends to be less about conducting mock sessions and role-playing than digging into briefing books. This will likely hold: Biden’s aides are not convinced that any kind of interaction he’d have at a town hall or other event is comparable to what’s awaiting him onstage. His campaign staffers expect the debates to either crystallize his top spot, or turn the primary into less of a marathon with Biden out ahead and more like two dozen Slinkies tumbling down a flight of stairs.”

Said one adviser: “This is not a debate. It’s not going to be structured as a debate. It is 10 candidates in a joint appearance with press moderators.”

Delaware politics from a liberal, progressive and Democratic perspective. Keep Delaware Blue.

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