Politico: “The two polls of likely Democratic primary voters, completed last week by Tel Opinion Research, a Florida-based firm, show the former vice president with a 21-percentage point lead over the second-place candidate, Sen. Bernie Sanders, in New Hampshire and an even bigger Biden lead over him of 27 points in South Carolina.”
“Most other candidates polled in the single digits or didn’t register at all. Unlike most public polls, respondents were asked an open-ended question about which candidate they preferred, and were not read a full list of the roughly two-dozen Democrats running for the nomination.”
SOUTH CAROLINA–Biden 37–Sanders 10–Warren 8–Harris 7–Buttigieg 3–Booker 2
NEW HAMPSHIRE— Biden 33–Sanders 12–Warren 11–Buttigieg 7–Harris 7–O’Rourke 1
MICHIGAN–Biden 37–Sanders 16–Warren 9–Buttigieg 5–Harris 4–Booker 3–O’Rourke 1–Bennet 1–Gabbard 1–Gillibrand 1–Klobuchar 1–Swalwell 1–
A new Morning Consult poll finds Joe Biden leading the Democratic field with 38%, followed by Bernie Sanders at 20%.
They are followed by Elizabeth Warren at 9%, Pete Buttigieg at 7%, Kamala Harris at 7% and Beto O’Rourke at 4%.
FiveThirtyEight: Is there an anti-Biden lane in the Democratic primary?
Political scientist Allan Lichtman, who wrote about the 13 keys to winning the White House and predicted Donald Trump’s victory in 2016, told CNNthat Democrats “are fundamentally wrong about the politics of impeachment and their prospects for victory in 2020.”
He says Trump has only three keys against him now.
Said Lichtman: “An impeachment and subsequent trial would cost the president a crucial fourth key — the scandal key — just as it cost Democrats that key in 2000. The indictment and trial would also expose him to dropping another key by encouraging a serious challenge to his re-nomination.”
He added: “Other potential negative keys include the emergence of a charismatic Democratic challenger, a significant third-party challenge, a foreign policy disaster, or an election-year recession. Without impeachment, however, Democratic prospects are grim.”
The documentary Running With Beto will premiere tonight on HBO.
Daily Beast: “In the doc, Beto comes off as charismatic yet controlling—its most revealing moments being ones where he is seen dressing down his clearly overworked staff for their perceived lack of preparedness. The person on the receiving end of most of the scoldings is Cynthia Cano, his road manager. At several tense points in the film, Cano is criticized by Beto—in front of her campaign colleagues—for not leaving enough time in his schedule for media interviews, having him be late to campaign events, and not adequately prepping him for those events. (Cano views Beto’s penchant for going long in his speeches and wanting to speak with every single constituent and/or person with a microphone as the reason for his constant tardiness and lack of prep time, which appears to be the more likely culprit.)”
“After Beto was narrowly defeated by Cruz, he delivered a concession speech in front of thousands of supporters in his backyard of El Paso, where he exclaimed, ‘I’m so fucking proud of you guys.’ Just prior to that, in the backstage area of the venue, Modigliani’s cameras caught Beto and his top staffers (as well as his teary-eyed wife, Amy) in an intimate huddle, where the Senate candidate apologized to them for being ‘a giant asshole.’”
First Read: “The Democrats’ presidential field is guaranteed to become smaller three months from now — at least when it comes to who qualifies to make the debate stage.”
“To qualify for the third round of debates, candidates must hit 2 percent in four qualifying polls released between June 28 and Aug. 28. That’s up from the current polling threshold of 1 percent. And they will need to raise money from 130,000 unique individual donors — up from 65,000.”
“To understand how that new polling requirement will winnow the field, only nine Democratic candidates have hit 2 percent or above in just one of the last three qualifying national polls (Fox, Quinnipiac, Monmouth). Those nine: Biden, Sanders, Warren, Harris, Buttigieg, O’Rourke, Klobuchar, Booker and Castro.”
“That’s it. And it’s quite likely the 130,000 donor threshold reduces that number even further.”
President Trump came out against Roy Moore running for Senate in Alabama again, arguing the former judge “cannot win.”
Tweeted Trump: “Republicans cannot allow themselves to again lose the Senate seat in the Great State of Alabama. This time it will be for Six Years, not just Two.”
He added: “I have NOTHING against Roy Moore, and unlike many other Republican leaders, wanted him to win. But he didn’t, and probably won’t. If Alabama does not elect a Republican to the Senate in 2020, many of the incredible gains that we have made during my Presidency may be lost, including our Pro-Life victories. Roy Moore cannot win, and the consequences will be devastating….Judges and Supreme Court Justices!”
“Midterm voter turnout reached a modern high in 2018, and Generation Z, Millennials and Generation X accounted for a narrow majority of those voters,” according to a Pew Research Center analysis.
“The three younger generations – those ages 18 to 53 in 2018 – reported casting 62.2 million votes, compared with 60.1 million cast by Baby Boomers and older generations. It’s not the first time the younger generations outvoted their elders: The same pattern occurred in the 2016 presidential election.”
Rep. Greg Gianforte (R-MT) plans to run for governor in 2020, MTN News reports — “adding to a crowded Republican gubernatorial primary and creating an open race next year for Montana’s only congressional seat, and possibly other statewide offices.”
“Beto O’Rourke is proposing to remake the US immigration system and change how the federal government treats asylum seekers at the border, in a detailed plan released Wednesday,” BuzzFeed News reports.
“The immigration overhaul includes a mix of executive orders and legislation O’Rourke says he would push early as president, including plans for new community-sponsored immigration visas, looser border detention policies, and pathways to citizenship for immigrants already in the country.”
The Hill: O’Rourke immigration plan would create pathway to citizenship for 11 million people.
“Trump campaign officials have been discussing a digital campaign to boost President Trump’s 2020 support among three key demographic groups: African Americans, Hispanics and suburban women,” two sources familiar with the plan tell Axios.
“These are the groups the president must make inroads with the most. Trump won in 2016 with less support from black and Hispanic voters than any president in at least 40 years, per Reuters. And in 2018, suburban women revolted against Republicans in the midterms, a shift that was widely seen as a direct rebuke of Trump.”
“Rep. Seth Moulton (D-MA), a Marine veteran who is running for president, will introduce a plan Tuesday evening to expand military mental health services and will disclose publicly that he sought treatment for post-traumatic stress disorder after his combat deployments during the Iraq War,” Politico reports.
Said Moulton: “I had some particular experiences or regrets from the war that I just thought about every day, and occasionally I’d have bad dreams or wake up in a cold sweat.”
Associated Press: “Three months into his second presidential campaign, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders is struggling with some of the same challenges that sank his last bid: doubts about his electability, worries about support from minority voters and an opponent with deep ties to the party establishment.”
The Hill: Democrats worry Sanders could play spoiler.
“ABC News, in partnership with Univision, will host the third Democratic presidential debate in September, the Democratic National Committee announced Wednesday, saying it was raising both the polling and fundraising bars for candidates to qualify,” Politico reports.
“The debate is set for Sept. 12 and could extend to a second night, Sept. 13, if enough candidates meet the threshold to participate.”
“But it will be more difficult for the nearly two dozen 2020 Democratic hopefuls to make the stage. Unlike the first and second rounds of debates, when candidates must cross either a donor or polling threshold to qualify, candidates will need to surpass both bars to make the stage for the third and fourth debates. For the September event, candidates will have to hit 2 percent in four qualifying polls, versus 1 percent in three polls for the first debates, and they will need 130,000 individual donors, up from 65,000.”
CBS News: DNC announces criteria for fall debates.
“President Trump, who has touted himself as an unmatched ally of military veterans, is facing pointed new attacks from Democratic presidential candidates who question his medical deferment from service in Vietnam — and, in turn, his patriotism and integrity,” the Washington Post reports.
“Leading the assault are two military veterans: Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Rep. Seth Moulton (D-MA). They have offered searing assessments of Trump, accusing the president of faking a disability and forcing another American of Trump’s generation to risk his life in the jungles of Southeast Asia.”