Elections National

The Campaign Report – 5/16/19

A new Quinnipiac poll in Pennsylvania finds Joe Biden leading President Trump by double-digits in the important swing state, 53% to 42%. Other matchups:

  • Biden 53–Trump 42
  • Sanders 50–Trump 43
  • Warren 47–Trump 44
  • Harris 45–Trump 45
  • Buttigieg 45–Trump 44
  • Trump 46–O’Rourke 44

Democratic Primary–Biden 39–Sanders 13–Harris 8–Warren 8–Buttigieg 6–Booker 5–O’Rourke 2–Klobuchar 1

Here are two other national polls released yesterday:

National–Emerson–Biden 33–Sanders 25–Harris 10–Warren 10–Buttigieg 8. No other candidate has more than 3% support in the poll.

National–Reuters/Ipsos–Biden 29–Sanders 13. None of the other candidates received more than 6% support in the poll.

A new Gallup survey found that 55% of Americans favor eliminating the Electoral College and going with the popular vote, while just 43% opposed the idea. “Arguments against the Electoral College have been around for decades, but became louder in 2000 when Al Gore lost to George W. Bush despite winning the national popular vote by more than 500,000 ballots. The arguments again ramped up when Donald Trump was elected in 2016, but lost the national vote to Hillary Clinton by nearly 3 million ballots.”

Politico: “As his opponents in a sprawling primary field scramble to build their early state profiles, the Biden campaign is taking a different, more deliberate approach. The number of events per day are limited. The size of the venues are modest. Careful attention has been paid to his exposure to the press, with a slow ramp up of his availability to the media over time.”

“By dictating his own tempo and setting his own terms of engagement, Biden has only underscored his stature as a party eminence — and subtly reinforced his status as the field’s front-runner.”

Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA) will not appear on Fox News for a moderated town hall, according to Yashar Ali. “Harris joins Sen. Elizabeth Warren in declining to appear on the conservative top-rated network. As Senator, Harris has never appeared on the network for a sit down interview.” Said a spokesperson for the Harris campaign: “They’ve reached out but we haven’t entertained it.”

Politico: “Unlike any other Democratic candidate in the country, Bullock could make a virtually unwinnable Senate race competitive and give the party a real shot at knocking off a GOP incumbent and getting closer to a Senate majority.”

“Bullock has been unequivocal in shrugging off the Senate recruitment, which has included conversations with Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and other Democratic senators. He doesn’t want to be one senator of 100, people who know him say, and fashions himself an executive, not a legislator.”

Daily Beast: “The Coalition to Restore American Values has been running ads since November 2018 that, among other things, feature Warren in an Indian headdress and warn against her ‘casino plan.’ The group is registered to David R. Langdon, a long time culture warrior, in July 2018, according to Ohio state records.”

“The online ad was one of the first public salvos linking Warren to the project in an attempt to rally conservatives against legislation recognizing a Native American tribe seeking a new casino in Massachusetts. Trump himself has since declared his opposition to the legislation last week in a tweet that dubbed Warren ‘Pocahontas.’”

Josh Kraushaar: “If there’s one development that threatens to disrupt the best laid plans of Republicans, it’s the transformation of Arizona from a rock-ribbed GOP stronghold into a bona fide battleground state. In recent years, Republicans have struggled to balance the energy of their activist base with the pragmatism necessary to win over the state’s critical mass of suburban independents.”

“At the same time, Democrats are eyeing Arizona as a critical political prize that could make or break their national ambitions. Win Arizona, and the party could withstand a Rust Belt stumble in Wisconsin. Pick off the state’s second Senate seat, and the prospect of an upper-chamber majority becomes more realistic. Hold their 6-3 advantage in the House delegation, and Democrats should feel confident about their ability to maintain control in the lower chamber.”

“There have been some troubling signs for Arizona Republicans in recent weeks.”

Joshua Green: “Biden’s record on trade is already drawing attacks from the left and right. Besides Washington Gov. Jay Inslee, a former House member, Biden is the only one of the 22 Democrats running for president who voted for NAFTA.”

Said pollster Stan Greenberg: “NAFTA still resonates in the industrial Midwest and Rust Belt. There’s still a lot of anger because it symbolizes, for many people, the indifference about the outsourcing of jobs and the favoring of elite economic interests in international trade agreements.”

First Read: “Electability means so many different things to different people — it’s difficult to gauge or define.”

“Still, it’s striking that none of the Top 5 2020 Democrats in the polls right now — Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris and Pete Buttigieg — has any past record of being able to win or even compete in a purple/red state in a general election.”

“By contrast, outside of the Top 5 in polling are Amy Klobuchar (who won 60 percent of the vote in Minnesota last fall), new entrant Steve Bullock (who’s won statewide for governor twice in Montana), Beto O’Rourke (who narrowly lost in Texas in ’18) and Michael Bennet and John Hickenlooper (who’ve won multiple statewide bids in Colorado).”

“Some of President Trump’s supporters in Sioux City, Iowa love liberal populist proposals. They just don’t love the 2020 Democrats as the messengers,” Axios reports.

“A focus group of swing voters — all of whom voted for Trump in 2016 — strongly supported a student loan debt plan that would cancel up to $50,000 in student debt for people whose families make less than $100,000 per year. (That’s Elizabeth Warren’s proposal, though her name wasn’t mentioned in the question.) They also want to tax American corporations, specifically big banks, to pay for Trump’s infrastructure plans.”

“This was the main takeaway from the Engagious/FPG focus group of swing voters… which included 11 voters who supported Barack Obama and then Trump. All but one said they would re-elect Trump if it were him versus Hillary Clinton again.”

New York Times: “It is just the sort of fight Mr. Biden has been spoiling for: a head-to-head contest with the incumbent on an issue that elevates Mr. Biden into a statesmanlike role, well above the Democratic primary fray and all the sniping candidates and liberal litmus tests therein.”

“For Mr. Trump’s advisers, it was one more example of the president’s inability to resist offering what amounts to an in-kind contribution to a Democrat who, according to their own polling, is positioned to soundly defeat them next year.”

“The president, though, has told advisers he believes he can portray Mr. Biden, a longtime Washington veteran, as representative of an ossified political class the same way he did Hillary Clinton, wounding him with enough attacks and put-downs that Mr. Biden will either stagger into the general election or collapse in the primary.”

A new Politico/Morning Consult poll finds that 54% say they think President Trump has been successful in business, while 36% say he has been unsuccessful.

Party breakdown: “Fully 85% of Republican voters say Trump has been successful, while only 10% say he’s been unsuccessful. Democratic voters see Trump’s business career differently: 30%, say he’s been successful, while 61% say he’s been unsuccessful. Among independents, 49% say Trump has been successful, and 34% say he’s been unsuccessful.”

Delaware politics from a liberal, progressive and Democratic perspective. Keep Delaware Blue.

1 comment on “The Campaign Report – 5/16/19

  1. cassandram

    Elizabeth Warren’s idea of a Green Fighting Machine is a really smart one especially since this builds on work the DOD has been doing for a decade or more. Work that most people don’t know they are doing. Lots of R&D into alternative fuels; hardening bases so that they are energy independent, LEED-qualified construction (including retrofits), hardening bases that are threatened by sea level rise and so on. We may have people in government pooh-poohing climate change, but the DOD has been working at changing their footprint and being able to survive the changes for a more than a decade.

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