Elections National

The Campaign Report – 5/15/19

A new Change Research poll in Nevada finds Joe Biden leading the Democratic presidential field with 29%, followed by Bernie Sanders at 24%, Pete Buttigieg at 13%, Elizabeth Warren at 12%, Kamala Harris at 11% and Beto O’Rourke at 4%.

Key finding: Among 18-34-year olds, Sanders is at 50% and Biden is in fifth place at only 6%.

A new Morning Consult survey finds that Sen. Bernie Sanders’s support among voters between the ages of 18 and 29 has dropped from 45% in March to 33% in May.

“Montana Gov. Steve Bullock (D), who was twice elected to lead a state that President Trump carried by more than 20 points, entered the Democratic presidential primary on Tuesday, vowing to elevate the issue of campaign finance and, more implicitly, to make Democrats competitive again across the country’s interior,” the New York Times reports

Said Bullock on video: “We need to defeat Donald Trump in 2020 and defeat the corrupt system that lets campaign money drown out the people’s voice so we can finally make good on the promise of a fair shot for everyone.”

Bullock’ campaign slogan is “A Fair Shot for Everyone.”

Billionaire Mark Cuban told CNBC he hasn’t ruled out an independent run for the White House in 2020.

Said Cuban: “We’ll see what happens. It would take the perfect storm for me to do it. There’s some things that could open the door, but I’m not projecting or predicting it right now.”

He added: “I still think there’s a real opportunity for somebody who is in the middle but has some charisma, has the ability to relate to both sides but is not a politician. The reality is people don’t trust politicians.”

Campaigning in New Hampshire, Joe Biden predicted that once President Trump is out of office, Republicans will have “an epiphany” and work with Democrats toward consensus, Bloomberg reports.

Playbook: “One truly wonders what available evidence there is to come to a conclusion like this. When Biden was last in office, he was Obama’s link to Mitch McConnell — so he does have recent experience working with Senate Republicans. But very, very few people think the GOP is on the brink of a bipartisan epiphany.”

Joshua Spivak: “Democrats have long complained — with good reason — about the role of the Green Party in depriving Al Gore of the White House in 2000. Nader received 2.74% of the vote (he did not appear in all states), including 1.63 percent in the critical state of Florida that Gore lost by 537 votes. That 2.74% was a strong showing for a third party, but in 2016, the Libertarian Party topped that total.”

“The Libertarian Party had never before received more than 1.1% of the vote in a presidential election. But with New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson and former Massachusetts Gov. William Weld serving as their ticket, the party rocketed to 3.24% of the vote. In two of the critical states that Trump flipped, Michigan and Wisconsin, Johnson topped 3.6%. In Pennsylvania, the third normally Democratic stronghold that voted GOP, Johnson received 2.4%.”

“It is not clear from the polling, but one of the reasons for Trump’s surprise victory was the cratering in support for Johnson in the waning months of the election. In September, he was polling at 9%, which fell off heavily by Election Day.”

Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) turned down a Fox News invitation for a televised town hall and denounced the cable network as a “hate-for-profit racket that gives a megaphone to racists and conspiracists,” Politicoreports.

“The network has been inviting Democratic presidential candidates to participate in town halls moderated by its news reporters. Bernie Sanders and Amy Klobuchar already done the events, while Pete Buttigieg and Kirsten Gillibrand are scheduled to. All of them have criticized the network’s coverage of the Trump administration but defended going on the network as a means to reach voters.”

“Without mentioning her rivals, Warren argued that agreeing to go on the network would implicitly help Fox News.”

Harry Enten: “Joe Biden is enjoying a large lead in national primary polls. Primaries, of course, aren’t all conducted at once, but rather are held in a sequential fashion, with the early contests of Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina being pivotal. Indeed, many national primary polling frontrunners first started showing weakness in early state polling.”

“Unlike those frontrunners — and importantly for his election chances — Biden’s early state numbers currently are mostly like his his national numbers — which was the case for previous frontrunners who went on to win their party’s nomination.”

“Leading in all the early states at this point has historically been a fairly good sign. Dating back to 1980 (the year in which we start getting solid state polling data), nine candidates in competitive primaries have led in polling around this point in the cycle in both Iowa and New Hampshire. All but one candidate (Ted Kennedy in 1980) who led in Iowa and New Hampshire would go on to win their party’s nomination.”

Michelle Goldberg: “In his own horrific way, Trump seemed to expand the possibilities of American politics, making it seem as if the old rules of electability no longer applied. Many of us assumed that the expansion would go in both directions, since Trump’s rise represented such a catastrophic failure of the political center. But there are a lot of Democrats who don’t want a revolution, or even a protracted political fight. They just want things to be the way they were before Trump came along, when ordinary people didn’t have to think about Twitter at all.”

Delaware politics from a liberal, progressive and Democratic perspective. Keep Delaware Blue.

2 comments on “The Campaign Report – 5/15/19

  1. Hey can we get a Delaware focused update. I know it’s early but I hear lots of house and senate race rumors. Coons Carney? The waste of time insurance commissioner? Anyone getting primaries?

    • Delaware Dem

      Funny you should ask. I am working on a post that will review all races up for election in DE in 2020 and the possible candidates for all the offices. It will be published tomorrow.

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