Elections National

The Campaign Report – 5/13/2019

NBC News: “If New Hampshire Democrats voted today, and the most recent polling is correct, the only candidates who would get any delegates at all from the first-in-the-nation primary would be Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders.”

“The two are not only leading the packed field of 2020 presidential contenders, but are the only contenders who have clearly separated themselves from the rest of the crowd in polling and surpassed the crucial 15 percent threshold that candidates need to hit to be awarded delegates.”

“And for all their differences, Sanders and Biden have a mutual interest in preserving their duopoly and using each other as foils. Sanders needs an establishment antagonist, while Biden, 76, may prefer running against the 77-year-old Sanders than 20 younger options.”

Jonathan Chait: “The poor guy has disregarded all the advice and decided to run anyway. And initial polling has revealed that a large number of Democrats have not left Biden behind at all. He begins the race leading his closest competitors, including early front-runner Bernie Sanders, by as much as 30 points. Perhaps it was the party’s intelligentsia, not Biden, that was out of touch with the modern Democratic electorate.”

“The conclusion that Biden could not lead the post-Obama Democratic Party is the product of misplaced assumptions about the speed of its transformation. Yes, the party has moved left, but not nearly as far or as fast as everybody seemed to believe. Counterintuitively, House Democrats’ triumph in the midterms may have pushed their center of gravity to the right: The 40 seats Democrats gained were overwhelmingly located in moderate or Republican-leaning districts.”

“Biden’s apparent resurrection from relic to runaway front-runner has illustrated a chasm between perception and reality.”

Associated Press: “Top Republicans are hunting district-by-district for just the right candidates — women and minorities in many cases — to help them recapture the House six months after a political tidal wave swept Democrats into control of the most diverse majority in history. Among the recruits are a Republican woman in the Oklahoma state Senate and a black political novice from Houston with Iraq combat experience and three Ivy League degrees on his resume.”

“Finding women and minority candidates is an imperative for an overwhelmingly white GOP openly embarrassed that just 13 of its 197 House members are women. By contrast, 89 of the 235 House Democrats are women and nearly 90 are black or Hispanic.”

Mike Allen: “Democrats need four seats to win a majority — but very few Republican incumbents look beatable right now. Susan Collins, who sits atop the list, is fairly popular in Maine. The other two most vulnerable Republicans are Sens. Cory Gardner of Colorado and Martha McSally of Arizona, who’s being challenged by Mark Kelly, the retired astronaut turned gun-control advocate.”

“But even if Democrats somehow took out those three, they’ll still struggle to hold onto the seat of Sen. Doug Jones in deep-red Alabama.”

“Many Democrats wish these 2020 presidential candidates — and possibilities — would run for Senate instead: Beto O’Rourke in Texas, John Hickenlooper in Colorado and Steve Bullock in Montana. In Georgia, Stacey Abrams has said no to the Senate but is still entertaining a presidential run.”

Politico: “After spending the first months of 2019 fixated on small-dollar online support and adopting rhetoric shunning bigger donors, campaigns are now taking stronger steps to bring wealthy and well-connected supporters into the fold. Jolted by Joe Biden’s splashy $6.3 million first day in the Democratic primary, many of Biden’s rivals are increasingly hungry for bigger donors’ support.”

“Former Rep. Beto O’Rourke, who raises most of his funds online from small donors, is set to hold his first high-dollar event of the campaign in New York City this week, where attendees have to pledge to raise $25,000 for some tickets. South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg is holding high-dollar events in cities across the country as he tries to collect on his newfound fame with donors.”

“The polls may be middling, the fundraising so-so, but Elizabeth Warren has one key asset in her bid for the Democratic presidential nomination — a campaign plan more clearly defined than that of just about any other candidate,” the Los Angeles Times reports.

“While many of her rivals are recalibrating their strategies and looking for new ways to stand out in a huge field largely eclipsed by former Vice President Joe Biden, Warren is pressing ahead, tortoise and hare style.”

Politico: “The similarities between their credentials — and the disparity between how their campaigns have been covered on the campaign trail — are frustrating Booker allies who question whether the media is giving the New Jersey senator a fair shot.”

“Other Democrats see Buttigieg’s rise as a reflection of entrenched racial and gender biases — that the Buttigieg bump would be impossible if he wasn’t a white man.”

HuffPost: “Steve Bullock and his team know his entrance into the race will be greeted with a few groans… But Bullock and his entourage also are confident his surprisingly progressive-for-Montana profile and record will stand out enough to rise above the din of nearly two dozen candidates speaking simultaneously to overwhelmed primary voters.”

“The message the governor wants to bring from Montana to the rest of the country is about more than simply defeating the president. He wants to fix the political system ― making campaign donations more transparent and less influential and creating a less partisan atmosphere … Bullock believes attracting support from Trump voters in red states isn’t just necessary to win, it’s also necessary to govern. The overall goal is to project a philosophy that’s both liberal enough to satiate his own party’s left and practical enough to win over centrists.”

Wall Street Journal: “Republicans are looking to avoid a runoff in Tuesday’s primary for North Carolina’s do-over Ninth Congressional District race, a possibility that seemed unlikely in March when 10 candidates filed for the empty seat.”

“Avoiding a four-month runoff would be a boon to the Republican candidate, who will face Democrat Dan McCready in the fall. Mr. McCready had $1.6 million in cash on hand as of April 24 … In a recent poll, State Sen. Dan Bishop was the top candidate, with 31% support, while Stony Rushing, a gun-range owner and Union County commissioner, had 17%.”

Wall Street Journal: “Bernie Sanders, the independent Vermont senator who came up through that state’s democratic socialist party, launched his insurgent campaign for president four years ago as an outsider challenging the Democratic machine.”

“Now, in this early stage of the 2020 presidential race, Mr. Sanders is a Democratic front-runner and newly minted millionaire, with high name recognition and $18 million raised in the first six weeks of his campaign, so far outpacing his rivals. His campaign today has the trappings of the very establishment he eschews, making it a challenge to set himself apart in a wide field of Democrats, including some who have sought to emulate his previous run.”

A new OH Predictive Insights poll in Arizona shows Sen. Martha McSally (R) just ahead of challenger Mark Kelly (D), 45% to 44%.

Delaware politics from a liberal, progressive and Democratic perspective. Keep Delaware Blue.

0 comments on “The Campaign Report – 5/13/2019

Leave a Reply

%d bloggers like this: