A new Monmouth poll in New Hampshire finds Joe Biden as the clear frontrunner for the Democratic nomination with 36%, followed by Bernie Sanders at 18%, Pete Buttigieg at 9%, Elizabeth Warren at 8% and Kamala Harris at 6%. No other candidate registers more than 2% support.
Also interesting: “The overwhelming majority (68%) of likely Democratic voters prefer to have a nominee who would be a strong candidate against Trump even if they disagree with that candidate on most issues. If they were forced to choose, just 25% say they would favor a Democratic candidate who they are aligned with on the issues even if that person would have a hard time beating Trump.”
Of course, it’s early, and the race will have up and downs for Biden and Sanders and the other candidates, and the debates are still upcoming, and of course Biden will be the main target in them, but, I wonder if this doesn’t all end in a Biden sweep through the primaries. Bernie benefited in 2016 by getting all the anti-Hillary vote. The anti-Biden vote is dispersed among 19 candidates. The assumption was that if it was a large field, it would be easier for Bernie to win since he has a high and passionate floor of support. Now I think the assumption is wrong, and reverse.
A new Reuters/Ipsos poll finds the number of Americans who said President Trump should be impeached rose 5 percentage points to 45% since mid-April.
Kyle Kondik: “Let’s start here with a caveat: House generic ballot polling from a year and a half before a general election should not be treated as predictive. The 2020 House election depends on a lot of factors that remain unknowable, most importantly the tone-setting effect of the presidential race, which at this point appears to be something of a 50-50 proposition.”
“That said, if you’re looking for signs of a growing backlash against the new Democratic-majority U.S. House of Representatives, you won’t find it in national generic ballot polling so far.”
“Democrats led the House generic ballot the whole way in the 2017-2018 RealClearPolitics average. From Jan. 1, 2017 through April 30, 2017, there were 12 generic ballot polls included. The Democrats led every single one, and by an average of six points.”
“This year, from Jan. 1 through April 30, there are 11 polls in the average, and the Democrats lead in every one… by an average of six points.”
Ballotpedia: “On November 6, 2018, elections were held for 6,073 state legislative seats across 87 of the nation’s 99 state legislative chambers. Five hundred and eight elections (8.3%) resulted in control of a seat changing to a new party. Of the 508 flips, 391 (77.0%) were Republican seats that flipped to Democrats and 93 (18.2%) were Democratic seats that flipped to Republicans.”
A new Economist/YouGov Poll finds that a 54% of Americans agree with congressional Democrats about wanting to hear from special counsel Robert Mueller himself about the Russia investigation and its findings, while just 20% disagree.
Also interesting: By 54% to 22%, Americans want the full Mueller report released to Congress.
The Des Moines Register looked at the questions asked of Democratic presidential candidates at events across Iowa last month. “Health care, climate change and education were asked about most and accounted for roughly a quarter of all questions asked in April.” “Cable news staple topics, like Russia and presidential impeachment, rarely were brought up — just a couple of times.”
Time: “Warren’s policy proposals have become her brand. On the campaign trail, her off-the-cuff phrase ‘I have a plan for that!’ became so ubiquitous that it morphed into a viral applause line.”
“Voters tend to tell pollsters they prioritize policy over personality. But they said that in 2016 too, when Clinton’s detailed agenda was no match for Trump’s simple slogans and schoolyard nicknames. As her Democratic competitors offer enticing promises largely devoid of specifics, Warren insists on talking nuts and bolts.”
A new Gonzales Research poll in Maryland finds Republicans overwhelmingly support President Trump in a hypothetical presidential primary match up with Gov. Larry Hogan (R), 68% to 24%.
This comes even as Hogan’s job approval rating among all Maryland voters is 76%, while Trump’s is 39%.
“President Trump’s outside political machine is setting a $300 million fundraising goal and is pitching major GOP donors on a plan to target six swing states that are likely to decide the 2020 election, according to people familiar with the group’s blueprint,” Politico reports.
“The pressure is high: America First Action super PAC and its allied non-profit, America First Policies, are part of a broader Trump political apparatus that Republican officials say will need to raise roughly $1 billion. Trump successfully raised money from small donors in 2016 but some major GOP givers remain wary of him.”
BuzzFeed News: “The low-profile Democratic lawyer who played a central role in Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton’s election campaigns, and who literally wrote the book on the obscure and crucial art of delegate selection, has gone to work for Beto O’Rourke.”
“There aren’t many presidential campaign staffers whose hires are worth a news article, but the lawyer, Jeff Berman, is one of them. Though he doesn’t work in the visible part of politics — admaking, messaging, communications, yelling at people on Twitter or cable news — Berman is America’s leading expert on the strange and at times undemocratic machine that is crucial to how parties select their candidates.”
“And his hire suggests that O’Rourke is trying to build a machine as well as a movement.”