Elections National

Polling and Campaign Report – 5/10/19

A new Monmouth poll in New Hampshire finds Joe Biden as the clear frontrunner for the Democratic nomination with 36%, followed by Bernie Sanders at 18%, Pete Buttigieg at 9%, Elizabeth Warren at 8% and Kamala Harris at 6%. No other candidate registers more than 2% support.

Also interesting: “The overwhelming majority (68%) of likely Democratic voters prefer to have a nominee who would be a strong candidate against Trump even if they disagree with that candidate on most issues. If they were forced to choose, just 25% say they would favor a Democratic candidate who they are aligned with on the issues even if that person would have a hard time beating Trump.”

Of course, it’s early, and the race will have up and downs for Biden and Sanders and the other candidates, and the debates are still upcoming, and of course Biden will be the main target in them, but, I wonder if this doesn’t all end in a Biden sweep through the primaries. Bernie benefited in 2016 by getting all the anti-Hillary vote. The anti-Biden vote is dispersed among 19 candidates. The assumption was that if it was a large field, it would be easier for Bernie to win since he has a high and passionate floor of support. Now I think the assumption is wrong, and reverse.

A new Reuters/Ipsos poll finds the number of Americans who said President Trump should be impeached rose 5 percentage points to 45% since mid-April.

Kyle Kondik: “Let’s start here with a caveat: House generic ballot polling from a year and a half before a general election should not be treated as predictive. The 2020 House election depends on a lot of factors that remain unknowable, most importantly the tone-setting effect of the presidential race, which at this point appears to be something of a 50-50 proposition.”

“That said, if you’re looking for signs of a growing backlash against the new Democratic-majority U.S. House of Representatives, you won’t find it in national generic ballot polling so far.”

“Democrats led the House generic ballot the whole way in the 2017-2018 RealClearPolitics average. From Jan. 1, 2017 through April 30, 2017, there were 12 generic ballot polls included. The Democrats led every single one, and by an average of six points.”

“This year, from Jan. 1 through April 30, there are 11 polls in the average, and the Democrats lead in every one… by an average of six points.”

Ballotpedia: “On November 6, 2018, elections were held for 6,073 state legislative seats across 87 of the nation’s 99 state legislative chambers. Five hundred and eight elections (8.3%) resulted in control of a seat changing to a new party. Of the 508 flips, 391 (77.0%) were Republican seats that flipped to Democrats and 93 (18.2%) were Democratic seats that flipped to Republicans.”

A new Economist/YouGov Poll finds that a 54% of Americans agree with congressional Democrats about wanting to hear from special counsel Robert Mueller himself about the Russia investigation and its findings, while just 20% disagree.

Also interesting: By 54% to 22%, Americans want the full Mueller report released to Congress.

The Des Moines Register looked at the questions asked of Democratic presidential candidates at events across Iowa last month. “Health care, climate change and education were asked about most and accounted for roughly a quarter of all questions asked in April.” “Cable news staple topics, like Russia and presidential impeachment, rarely were brought up — just a couple of times.”

Time: “Warren’s policy proposals have become her brand. On the campaign trail, her off-the-cuff phrase ‘I have a plan for that!’ became so ubiquitous that it morphed into a viral applause line.”

“Voters tend to tell pollsters they prioritize policy over personality. But they said that in 2016 too, when Clinton’s detailed agenda was no match for Trump’s simple slogans and schoolyard nicknames. As her Democratic competitors offer enticing promises largely devoid of specifics, Warren insists on ­talking nuts and bolts.” 

A new Gonzales Research poll in Maryland finds Republicans overwhelmingly support President Trump in a hypothetical presidential primary match up with Gov. Larry Hogan (R), 68% to 24%.

This comes even as Hogan’s job approval rating among all Maryland voters is 76%, while Trump’s is 39%.

“President Trump’s outside political machine is setting a $300 million fundraising goal and is pitching major GOP donors on a plan to target six swing states that are likely to decide the 2020 election, according to people familiar with the group’s blueprint,” Politico reports.

“The pressure is high: America First Action super PAC and its allied non-profit, America First Policies, are part of a broader Trump political apparatus that Republican officials say will need to raise roughly $1 billion. Trump successfully raised money from small donors in 2016 but some major GOP givers remain wary of him.”

BuzzFeed News: “The low-profile Democratic lawyer who played a central role in Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton’s election campaigns, and who literally wrote the book on the obscure and crucial art of delegate selection, has gone to work for Beto O’Rourke.”

“There aren’t many presidential campaign staffers whose hires are worth a news article, but the lawyer, Jeff Berman, is one of them. Though he doesn’t work in the visible part of politics — admaking, messaging, communications, yelling at people on Twitter or cable news — Berman is America’s leading expert on the strange and at times undemocratic machine that is crucial to how parties select their candidates.”

“And his hire suggests that O’Rourke is trying to build a machine as well as a movement.”

Delaware politics from a liberal, progressive and Democratic perspective. Keep Delaware Blue.

11 comments on “Polling and Campaign Report – 5/10/19

  1. The overwhelming majority, 64% want someone other than Biden.

  2. This is bad

    Anti Biden vote will split, giving him the victory, then the people who wouldn’t vote for a centrist in 2016 will do the same thing in 2020, leaving Trump the win. More news at 11.

    • Delaware Dem

      Or those narcissistic purity trolls could get the fuck over themselves and vote for Biden.

      • Delaware Dem

        By the way, if that is going to be the threat from the Bernie crowd, they should know that this is a two way street. If they are going threaten to not vote for Biden, then I and many others will not vote for Sanders.

        • calm the fuck down. No one is saying they WONT vote for Biden in the general. Just an “overwhelming” 64% of democrats prefer someone else. You gonna get all huffy at them?
          Gonna tell Kamala Harris to “go fuck herself” when she doesn’t bow to your arranged marriage candidate after Iowa? gimmie a fucking break. you’re posturing is as flimsy as Biden’s apology to Anita Hill.

          • It’s not progressives who will give trump 2020. It’s the middle moderates Biden, you, and the national party are so hell bent on winning. They wont see a difference between 2 gaffe-prone old white guys. Chuck Schumer will be happy. his fundraising is dependent on #resist. doesnt work when you’re in power.

          • delacrat

            No one is saying they WON’T vote for Biden in the general.” – ben

            Well, I didn’t vote for him in 2008, 2012 and definitely WON’T in 2020.

            • Your love for trump is well known, dudebro. You also represent a very small, unimportant group…. But one that party yes-men like DD think represent the majority of DSAs. Which you aren’t.

  3. Mitch Crane

    There are a lot of good candidates. Each has supporters. With that many candidates, it is not unusual for the “first choice” be spread widely. That does not mean Biden is not the second choice of any of them. I am impressed by Mayor Pete, as well as Kamala Harris, but I will work for Biden gladly if he is nominated. It does not mean that people who feel it essential that the incumbent is defeated will not vote for whoever the eventual nominee is.
    The fact that Biden has over 1/3rd of those Democrats who expressed a preference is amazing.

  4. Biden’s o.k. by me, but like many would prefer someone younger. Kamal Harris or Pete Buttigieg come to mind. But I’ll vote for the Dem regardless.

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