Polling and Campaign Report – The Biden Bounce

A lot of new polls shows an unmistakable Biden bounce since his announcement.

Morning Consult–Biden 36–Sanders 22–Warren 9–Buttigieg 8–Harris 7–O’Rourke 5–Booker 3–Klobuchar 2–Yang 2–Bullock 1, Castro 1, Delaney 1, Gabbard 1, Gillibrand 1–Hickenlooper 1–Inslee 1–Ryan 1. No one else gets above 1%.

Quinnipiac–Biden 38–Warren 12–Sanders 11–Buttigieg 10–Harris 8–O’Rourke 5–Booker 2–Klobuchar 1–Castro 1–Inslee 1–Yang 1. No one else registered above 1%.

Key finding: 56% say Biden has the best chance to beat President Donald Trump, followed by Sanders at 12%. Said pollster Tim Malloy: “The Democratic primary race suddenly gets real with a fast start by Joe Biden and a very clear indication from voters that he is the only candidate who can send President Trump packing 18 months from now.”

CNN–Biden 39–Sanders 15–Warren 8–Buttigieg 7–O’Rourke 6–Harris 5–Booker 2–Gabbard 2–Klobuchar 2–Castro–1–Gillibrand 1–Inslee 1–Swalwell 1–Williamson 1–Yang 1. Everyone else is less then 1%.

First Read: “But remember: It’s never easy being the early polling frontrunner. Ask Rudy Giuliani and Hillary in 2008. Or Jeb Bush in 2016.”

A new Suffolk University/Boston Globe poll in New Hampshire finds Joe Biden leading the Democratic presidential race with 20% support, followed by Sen. Bernie Sanders at 12%, Pete Buttigieg at 11% and Sen. Elizabeth Warren at 8%.

“The survey showed a fragmented field for Democrats. With 24 current and potential candidates polled, the top four contenders accounted for nearly 53% of support from those surveyed, while 14 candidates didn’t reach 1 percent.”

There is other polling nuggets in the CNN poll on the issues that are important. When Democrats and Independents were asked to rate the importance of several issue positions staked out by at least some of the candidates running for president, the following issues come out on top:

  • 82% back aggressive action to slow the effects of climate change
  • 75% want the government to provide health insurance for all Americans
  • 65% support executive action if Congress fails to pass stricter gun laws
  • 52% want to make public colleges tuition-free

Other issues were supported by less than half of potential Democratic voters, such as backing Trump’s impeachment (43%), paying reparations to the descendants of enslaved people (31%) or restoring voting rights to all felons (28%).

“The Republican Party is moving early to build a political firewall around Arizona’s critical Electoral College votes, a recognition that the perennial red state is threatening to turn against President Trump in 2020,” the Washington Examiner reports.

“The Trump campaign is hiring Brian Seitchik, a veteran Arizona operative, to run political operations in the state. He could take the helm as early as Wednesday, a full 18 months before Election Day, and would work in tandem with the Republican National Committee to build and oversee an extensive field program supported by paid staff and volunteers.”

George Skelton: “Clarity, courage and candor. That’s what voters want from political candidates. Not circular claptrap. That’s especially true of candidates running in a crowded field of 20 for the Democratic nomination to take on President Trump next year. Voters are looking for differences. Everyone’s pounding on Trump. That’s no distinction.”

“California Sen. Kamala Harris, who’s considered among the top tier of contenders, isn’t always performing up to speed. It’s not enough just to feed the voter base with red meat and focus group-certified talking points. Harris has long been afflicted with too much caution, as I’ve previously written.”

BuzzFeed News: “O’Rourke has done little national media since launching his campaign, including avoiding a CNN town hall — a major national stage that has hosted most Democratic candidates, and boosted Mayor Pete Buttigieg in national polls. (He did appear on MSNBC on Monday to talk about his new climate plan.)”

“That strategy is evidence of a campaign, and a candidate, measuring success differently than Washington standards, aides say: in part by the pace and frequency of campaign stops and the number of questions taken by voters, not polling surges, national moments, and message tests. Aides say they are focused on getting O’Rourke personally in front of many voters as possible, especially in unconventional venues.”

“A Republican source told the Daily Beast that lobbyist Jack Burkman and internet troll Jacob Wohl approached him last week to try to convince him to falsely accuse Buttigieg, the mayor of South Bend, Indiana, of engaging him sexually while he was too drunk to consent.”

“The source who spoke to The Daily Beast said Burkman and Wohl made clear that their goal was to kneecap Buttigieg’s momentum in the 2020 presidential race. The man asked to remain anonymous out of a concern that the resulting publicity might imperil his employment, and because he said Wohl and Burkman have a reputation for vindictiveness.”

“But the source provided The Daily Beast with a surreptitious audio recording of the meeting, which corroborates his account.”

Stacey Abrams told the Atlanta Journal Constitution that she won’t run for the U.S. Senate in 2020 but left open the possibility she could launch a presidential campaign.

“If she doesn’t make a White House run, Abrams is likely to prepare a 2022 rematch against Gov. Brian Kemp, who bested her by about 55,000 votes in a contest marred by allegations of voter suppression. After 10 days of legal wrangling and vote-counting, Abrams ended her campaign but refused to call it a concession.”

First Read: “Here’s the math: With the GOP holding a 53-47 advantage right now, Democrats must pick up a net of three Senate seats to win control of the chamber if they win the White House (with the vice president getting to break 50-50 ties).”

“And here’s the map: GOP Sen. Cory Gardner is vulnerable in Colorado; Democrats have recruited Mark Kelly to run against GOP Sen. Martha McSally in Arizona; but Dem Sen. Doug Jones is going to have a challenge hanging on in Alabama in a presidential year.”

“So assuming Dem wins in Arizona and Colorado — as well as a loss in Alabama — Democrats have to beat Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, plus flip one of Georgia, North Carolina, Iowa, Kentucky or Texas.”

“It’s doable. But it’s also daunting.”

Delaware politics from a liberal, progressive and Democratic perspective. Keep Delaware Blue.

5 comments on “Polling and Campaign Report – The Biden Bounce

  1. Taking the senate will be tough, but I think doable. As noted Gardner and McSally are vulnerable, also as noted Alabama really is stupid enough to send Roy Moore to the senate thus eclipsing their arch rival Mississippi in the race to the bottom (for now). Will be surprised if Collins is not defeated, but she’s shown a Mitch McConnell like ability to survive despite being highly unpopular. Speaking of Uncle Mitch if the Dems in Kentucky would get it the hell together he is beatable, he has never been really popular with approval eternally in the mid thirties.

    • Kentuckians may not like him, but they are A, heavily conservative and love them some tyranny and B) probably think the enjoy economic perks from having the Maj Leader be from their state. They dont, clearly, but i bet enough of em think they do to re-elect him.

      • I blame the Democratic party of Kentucky, as always the problem is more and better Dems are needed. McConnell has all the charm of a naked mole rat on crack and has lied repeatedly to his state, believe his coal miner schtick is about played as well as their down to about 5,500 the last I heard. Get a good candidate, unity behind them and I think money would roll in from across the country.

        • cassandram

          In 2016, Alison Lundergran Grimes was a very good candidate who was polling neck and neck with McConnell, with a Libertarian also in the race. It collapsed for her in the end and I am not so sure I understand why.

  2. cassandram

    Gov. Bullock (MT) announcing for President soon.

    That’s just weird. Wonder if there is something not functioning about the DSCC.

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