Elections National

Polling and Campaign Report – 4/30/19

Joe Biden told ABC News he takes “responsibility” for Anita Hill’s treatment when she testified before the Senate Judiciary committee during Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas’s confirmation hearing.

Said Biden: “I believed her from the very beginning, but I was chairman. She did not get a fair hearing. She did not get treated well. That’s my responsibility. As the committee chairman, I take responsibility that she did not get treated well. I take responsibility for that.”

He added: “I apologized for it. I apologize again.”

A new Emerson College survey in Texas finds President Trump in a dead heat with potential Democratic challengers Joe Biden and Beto O’Rourke.

Biden leads Trump 50% to 49%, while O’Rourke is tied with Trump at 50% to 50%.

In the Democratic primary race, Biden edges O’Rourke 23% to 22%, with Bernie Sanders at 17%, Pete Buttigieg at 8% and Elizabeth Warren at 7%.

New York Magazine: “The candidates who had long cultivated relationships with Wall Street — such as Cory Booker and Kirsten Gillibrand — were struggling to gain traction and had grown more hostile to finance as their party had, too. Biden, leading in early polls, had a comforting history in the Obama White House and a reputation as an Establishment Democrat but had never, until a few months ago, maintained any meaningful relationship with Wall Street, hadn’t even announced his candidacy yet, and struck many bankers as a dubious bet to beat Trump.”

“Nearly everyone else in the field, the financiers felt, was being pulled leftward by Bernie… and Elizabeth Warren (less crazy, Democrats on Wall Street think, and way more competent).”

Said one banker: “She would torture them.”

Warren could not have asked for a better quote. Expect to see that in an ad soon.

“Kamala Harris has hired Jim Margolis, one of the Democratic Party’s most accomplished admakers, as her media adviser,” Politico reports. “Margolis is a veteran of former President Barack Obama’s campaigns in 2008 and 2012, and served in a key role in Hillary Clinton’s White House bid in 2016.”

Associated Press: “Iowa voters sent a record number of women to the Legislature during last year’s midterms. Women won two of the state’s most competitive U.S. House races, and a woman was elected governor for the first time.”

“Yet across Iowa, there’s palpable anxiety among some Democratic women about nominating a female candidate to face off against President Donald Trump next year.”

“And it’s not just Iowa. Across Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, three of the first states to hold 2020 nominating contests, dozens of women told The Associated Press that they are worried about whether the country is ready to elect a woman as president. Their concerns are political and personal, rooted as much in fear of repeating Hillary Clinton’s 2016 loss to Trump as in their own experiences with sexism and gender discrimination.”

Vogue: “As we pass the remains of the Studebaker factories, I ask him what he’d say to those who argue that yet another white male candidate isn’t what Democrats need in this year of all years.” Said Buttigieg: “I’m sensitive to that. In the end, I think we just bring whatever identity we have to the table. Mine is of a young, gay, first-generation white veteran mayor.”

“In another election, at another time, the late entrance of a well-funded candidate leading in the polls might send convulsions through the primary field,” Politico reports.

“But Joe Biden’s arrival into the 2020 race has not had that effect. No Democratic rival appears doomed. No one’s fundraising seems in danger of drying up. Instead, in joining the race, the former vice president has laid bare how unsettled the entire 20-candidate contest remains — and how many in the party don’t believe the 76-year-old Biden is prepared for the rigors of a modern campaign, or the demands of a party transformed.”

First Read: “Bottom line: 96 hours in, Biden looks more like John Kerry of 2004 (the slight frontrunner in a volatile Democratic field) than Al Gore of 2000 or Hillary Clinton of 2016.”

A new Monmouth poll finds just 12% of Americans say that their family has benefited a great deal from recent growth in the U.S. economy and another 31% say they have received some benefit from the economic upturn. A majority, though, say they have been helped either not much (27%) or not at all (27%) from the nation’s macroeconomic growth.

A new ABC News/Washington Post poll found that 55% of respondents said they will not vote for President Trump next year, with just 39% approving of his job as president.

Just 28% said they definitely would vote for Trump, while another 14% said they would consider it.

ABC News: “The key issue of the 2018 midterms may stick around to trouble President Trump in 2020: Americans, by a 17-point margin, say his handling of health care makes them more likely to oppose than support him for a second term.”

“President Trump’s strongest case for reelection remains the country’s healthy economy, but the potency of that issue for him is complicated by a widespread belief that the economy mainly benefits people already in power,” a Washington Post-ABC News poll finds.

“The result previews a fresh wave of populism that could reshape yet another presidential campaign with about 18 months to go before voters decide whether to return Trump to the White House.”

“This sentiment runs the deepest among Democratic and independent registered voters, but also exists among a significant slice of Republicans. About 8 in 10 Democrats and more than 6 in 10 independents say the country’s economic system gives an advantage to those already in power, while nearly a third of Republicans share that view.”

The New York Times reports that just four official Democratic presidential candidates — Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-CA) and Rep. Seth Moulton (D-MA), Mayor Wayne Messam and writer Marianne Williamson — have yet to meet the thresholds laid out by the DNC to qualify for the first presidential debates.

To be eligible, candidates must receive at least one percent support in three separate polls before the debate or receive campaign contributions from at least 65,000 unique donors.

Newt Gingrich told CBS News that Sen. Kamala Harris is “most likely” to be nominated by Democrats to challenge President Trump in the 2020 presidential race.

Said Gingrich: “She’s very articulate and I think a likable person, and I think that she represents a new generation in a way that Biden and Sanders are going to work very hard to be able to match.”

But he said Pete Buttigieig may be the “most dangerous opponent” to Trump: “He’s from the Midwest, he’s a mayor of a small town, he has no particular public record, he can be like Jimmy Carter used to be, a Rorschach test of you paint on him what you want.”

Delaware politics from a liberal, progressive and Democratic perspective. Keep Delaware Blue.

7 comments on “Polling and Campaign Report – 4/30/19

  1. “Bottom line: 96 hours in, Biden looks more like John Kerry of 2004 (the slight frontrunner in a volatile Democratic field) than Al Gore of 2000 or Hillary Clinton of 2016.”

    well THAT fucking fills me with hope. Of those 3, Kerry is the only who who actually lost the primary. Joe should drop out on that comparison alone.

    • Joe Connor

      John Kerry was the nominee but hey

      • lost the popular vote MY BAD, BRO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

        Kerry is the only democrat to lose the popular vote since 1988.
        John Kerry , the elder statesman and “most qualified person ever”
        John Kerry, the “safe choice to get moderates”

        and thats who Biden is being compared to.
        we’re fucked.

  2. cassandram

    Buttigieg’s campaign considering copying McCain bus tour strategy

    First, McCain lost.

    Second, the Straight Talk Express was about bonding the media to McCain.

    Third, Obama did bus tours — as a candidate and as President.

    Fourth, HRC did bus tours.

    Fifth, McCain lost.

  3. cassandram

    AND the wingnut manufacturers of Fake News are at it again. This time trying to smear Pete Buttigeg by trying to get men to accuse him of assaulting them.

    Seems like good news that people and the media are getting a clue about this stuff.

  4. New Quinnipiac poll shows much more than Biden’s announcement bounce.

    Days after announcing his presidential candidacy, former Vice President Joe Biden holds a 26-point lead over other Democratic contenders, according to a new Quinnipiac University poll released Tuesday.

    Biden, who announced his White House bid early Thursday, leads among Democrats and voters leaning Democratic with 38 percent support of those surveyed, according to the poll.

    Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) came in second in the poll with 12 percent support among those surveyed, followed by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) with 11 percent, the poll found.

    Elizabeth Warren moves into 2nd place. That’s the story.

    • cassandram

      Indeed — and without a week of wall to wall campaign launch coverage, either.

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