Elections National

Polling and Campaign Report – 4/25/19

A new Reuters/Ipsos poll finds Joe Biden leads the Democratic presidential field with 24%, followed by Bernie Sanders at 15%. No other candidate received more than 7% of public support, and 21% said they “don’t know” which candidate they would back in a primary.

A new Morning Consult/Politico poll finds Joe Biden leading President Trump nationally, 42% to 34%, with another 19% who aren’t sure who they would support, and 5% said they wouldn’t vote.

Washington Post: “Voter turnout spiked to a 100-year high in last year’s midterm congressional elections. Census Bureau data released Tuesday finds turnout rates jumped across nearly all groups, but the shift was particularly notable among young adults who typically stay home in non-presidential years.”

“The Census found that 36 percent of citizens ages 18-29 reported voting in last year’s midterm elections, jumping 16 percentage points since 2014 (when turnout was 20 percent) and easily surpassing any midterm election since the 1980s.”

“Senior Trump 2020 advisers are headed to Harrisburg on Wednesday to meet with Pennsylvania GOP officials amid mounting concerns about the president’s prospects in the critical battleground state,” Politico reports.

“Trump’s campaign is moving to shore up the state after a 2018 midterm election that saw Republicans get blown out in races up and down the ballot… The private meeting, confirmed by a half-dozen party officials, underscores the high stakes for the president… Trump won Pennsylvania by less than 1 point in 2016, and reelection aides view the state’s 20 electoral votes as crucial to his 2020 hopes.”

Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan (R) said that he won’t challenge President Trump in the 2020 GOP primary unless he sees a “path to victory,” The Hill reports. Said Hogan: “I’m not going to launch some sort of suicide mission, I have a real day job that’s important to me, the people of Maryland, unless I thought there was a path to victory.”

New York Times: “In a Democratic race filled with voters who say they are hungering for a next-generation candidate, the contest between Mr. O’Rourke, 46, and Mr. Buttigieg, 37, is emerging as something of a parallel primary, with many voters attending events for both of them and, in some cases, agonizing over which one to support.”

Charlie Cook: “In the 11 ABC News/Washington Post, 17 CBS News, 22 CNN, 23 Fox News, 106 Gallup, 22 NBC News/Wall Street Journal, and 12 Pew Research Center polls, the president’s approval rating was upside down (higher disapprovals than approvals) in all but one of them… To reiterate: That’s 212 out of 213 polls showing upside-down approval ratings for Trump.”

“He couldn’t even add to that meager total if we included the 22 Kaiser Family Foundation, 29 Marist, 14 Monmouth, and 41 Quinnipiac national polls. That’s 318 out of 319 major national polls.”

The FiveThirtyEight polling average currently finds Trump’s approval at 41% to 54%.

Los Angeles Times: “The former El Paso congressman will stop at Los Angeles Trade-Technical College downtown for an outdoor rally at 4 p.m. Saturday. On Sunday, O’Rourke is planning a town hall at the United Irish Cultural Center in San Francisco, followed by multiple stops in the Central Valley on Monday. He wraps up his visit Tuesday morning with a town hall in San Diego.

“Notably absent from O’Rourke’s itinerary are the private Hollywood and Silicon Valley fundraisers that presidential candidates typically hold during visits to California. Spokesman Chris Evans said O’Rourke has held no fundraising events and has not scheduled any.”

A new Census Bureau report finds that the 2018 midterm election turnout — the  highest-turnout in more than a century — “was driven by a surge of voters who ordinarily sit out those contests, and who disproportionately favor Democratic candidates,” The Hill reports.

“While turnout was up across the board, it rose most dramatically among groups that did not participate very much in the 2014 midterm elections — to the benefit of Democrats who took back the House majority.”

New York Times: “Even before he formally enters the race, Mr. Biden is grappling with some internal tensions as he builds an organization: A launch video crafted by his new media consultant, Mark Putnam, was not favorably received by other advisers, and the former vice president’s longtime aide Mike Donilon devised an alternative video, according to two Democrats briefed on the dispute.”

Wall Street Journal: “There is little evidence that Mr. Biden, 76 years old, has worked to foster a base of small donors in the two years since he left office. He has expressed concern to Democratic fundraisers that he won’t be able to make a splash with early online donations the way Mr. Sanders and other candidates have.”

Delaware politics from a liberal, progressive and Democratic perspective. Keep Delaware Blue.

0 comments on “Polling and Campaign Report – 4/25/19

Leave a Reply

%d bloggers like this: