Elections

Polling and Campaign Report – 4/12/19

A new Monmouth poll in Iowa finds Joe Biden leads the Democratic presidential race with 27%, followed by Bernie Sanders at 16%, Pete Buttigieg at 9%, Elizabeth Warren at 7%, Kamala Harris at 7%, Beto O’Rourke at 6%, Amy Klobuchar at 4%, Cory Booker at 3% and Julián Castro at 2%.

Key findings: “Biden does especially well among voters age 65 and older (44%), those earning less than $50,000 a year (38%), and those without a college degree (34%). On the ideological spectrum, Biden’s support comes more from self-described moderates and conservatives (35%) than from liberals (20%), but the same is true for Sanders although to a lesser degree (20% non-liberals, 13% liberals).”

Said pollster Patrick Murray: “If Biden does get into this race, he’ll start out as a clear front-runner in Iowa. Not only does he garner support from crucial demographic groups but he is almost universally well-liked among all Democratic voters.”

“President Trump posted a tweet Thursday celebrating his poll numbers as shown in a Fox Business graphic,” USA Today reports.

“But there was a problem: the 55% approval number the graphic cited was actually the president’s unfavorable rating.”

A new Marquette Law School poll in Wisconsin finds President Trump’s approval rate at 46% to 52%.

“Support for reelecting the president is also little changed since January — 28% say that they would definitely vote to reelect Trump, and 14% would probably vote to reelect him. Another 8% say that they would probably vote for someone else, and 46% would definitely vote for someone else.”

Yashar Ali: “I learned this week that not only has McAuliffe been working to marshal support (something he has now confirmed publicly), but he has told friends and supporters that he sees a major weakness in Biden.”

“According to a source familiar with a conversation McAuliffe had with an influential Democratic figure, McAuliffe said he believes that Biden is ‘tanking’ after multiple women said he made them uncomfortable when he touched them without consent.”

McClatchy: “Kamala Harris’s top aides are privately meeting with local Democratic leaders from Alabama to Virginia. Bernie Sanders’s team is lining up interviews with potential senior staffers in California and Texas. And Cory Booker is cultivating relationships with officials across the South.”

“While early voting states get a lot of attention, many of the most formidable candidates in the 2020 presidential field are preparing for what comes after that — Super Tuesday, when voters in at least 12 other states are set to cast ballots in the Democratic primary. Super Tuesday 2020 falls on March 3, but early voting will start as early as Feb. 3 in California — the same day as the Iowa Caucuses.”

“They have good reason to get ready now: Nearly 40 percent of all pledged delegates will be up for grabs, more than any other single day on the primary calendar.”


New polling released Thursday by Civiqs showed 70 percent of Americans think Robert Mueller’s full report should be released to the public, but 53 percent think Donald Trump’s Justice Department is “trying to conceal information” contained in the report. Just 33 percent said the agency was not trying to cover up information.

A plurality of Americans, 47-27 percent, also continue to have a favorable view of Mueller, while about one-quarter of the population continues to be “unsure” about the matter.

In addition a slim majority of Americans, 52 percent, think that either Trump or people associated with his campaign committed crimes in 2016. An additional 28 percent say crimes were committed but not in association with the Trump campaign. Only 10 percent of Americans say no crimes at all were committed in 2016.

Delaware politics from a liberal, progressive and Democratic perspective. Keep Delaware Blue.

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