Elections National

Poll and Campaign Report – 4/6/2019

A new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll finds Americans “hold negative views of social-media giants like Facebook and Twitter, with sizable majorities saying these sites do more to divide the country than unite it, and spread falsehoods rather than news.”

Gallup: “By the widest margin since 2000, more Americans believe environmental protection should take precedence over economic growth when the two goals conflict. Sixty-five percent now choose the environment, up eight percentage points from a year ago, while 30% choose the economy.”

“There is some variation on this question by age. Adults aged 18 to 34 are more likely than those 35 and older to give precedence to environmental protection over economic growth. However, the sharpest differences are by party. Eight in 10 Democrats (82%) and 71% of independents prioritize environmental protection, versus 35% of Republicans.”

The Atlantic: “There are more long-shot Democrats running for president this year than there have been total candidates in previous campaigns—and next week, Eric Swalwell is joining the pack. The California congressman and frequent cable-news guest on all things related to President Trump and Russia will announce his presidential plans in an appearance on The Late Show With Stephen Colbert.”

“But he won’t be running on Russia, or on the continuing fallout from the Mueller report and the Barr letter. Swalwell will center his campaign on gun control.”

Politico: “Democratic Reps. Tim Ryan, Eric Swalwell, Tulsi Gabbard and Seth Moulton aren’t likely to be elected president in 2020. But faced with a stagnant leadership structure in the House and a political environment defined more by internet fame than legislative achievement, these Democratic lawmakers are weighing longshot bids for the White House or have already jumped into the race.

Julián Castro told anchor MSNBC that has has “not yet” hit the individual donor threshold to be on the stage for the first Democratic presidential debate in June. Said Castro: “We’re getting closer and closer… But we have not — we’ll be releasing the fundraising numbers in the next couple of days.”

First Read notes we only have first quarter fundraising numbers from Pete Buttigieg, Kamala Harris, Beto O’Rourke and Bernie Sanders.

“By the way, what does it say about the Dem 2020 candidates who haven’t released their fundraising numbers yet? And what does it say if the mayor of South Bend outraises you?”

“The candidates have until April 15 to file their reports to the FEC.”

WNEP: “A photo snapped by Ben Babarsky of Scranton shows former vice president and Scranton native Joe Biden visiting the current owners of his childhood home on North Washington Avenue.”

“Just five months off the race of his life, Joe Manchin is mulling a run for governor in 2020 against GOP Gov. Jim Justice,” Politico reports.

Said Manchin: “I think about it every minute of every day. Now, thinking about it and doing it are two different things. I’ll make a decision this fall sometime. I don’t think there’s any hurry at all.”

“Wisconsin voters on Tuesday delivered a stinging defeat to Democrats hoping to hold a seat on the state Supreme Court — and a hint that a sleeping Republican base is beginning to wake up just in time for the 2020 presidential election,” The Hill reports.

“Just weeks ago, Democrats believed their preferred candidate, Judge Lisa Neubauer, was the heavy favorite. Her opponent, Judge Brian Hagedorn, a conservative former aide to ex-Gov. Scott Walker (R), spent nearly the entire race defending himself from attacks over blog posts he wrote that laid out controversial views of gay rights and public religion.”

Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL), one of President Trump’s most devoted loyalists on Capitol Hill who represents the Florida Panhandle, has told GOP colleagues he is considering moving across the state line to run for the Senate in Alabama in 2020, The Hill reports.

This hereby guarantees the reelection of Senator Doug Jones (D-AL).

Alan Abromowitz explains the latest iteration of his “time for change” presidential election forecasting model.

“The most plausible prediction at this point, however, is for a very close contest. Given a net approval rating of -10, approximately where Trump’s approval rating has been stuck for most of the past year, and real GDP growth of between 1% to 2%, in line with most recent economic forecasts, the model predicts that he would receive between 263 and 283 electoral votes. Of course, it takes 270 electoral votes to win.”

Delaware politics from a liberal, progressive and Democratic perspective. Keep Delaware Blue.

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