Polling and Campaign Report – Trump trails all in PA

A new Emerson College poll in Pennsylvania shows President Trump losing to five potential Democratic challengers: Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris and Beto O’Rourke.

Joe Biden leads the Democratic primary in Pennsylvania over Bernie Sanders by 19 points, 39%-20%.

President Trump’s approval rating in the state is underwater with 51% disapproving of his job performance and 41% approving. However, his support within the Republican party remains strong as he holds a 90% to 10% lead in a potential matchup against former Massachusetts Governor Bill Weld. When voters were asked how likely they were to vote for Trump in 2020, 55% said they “were not likely”, while 45% said that they were “likely to vote” for the President. Additionally 49% of voters said their opinion of Trump has worsened since he was elected President, while 35% said their opinion of Trump has improved since his election.

The Quinnipiac University poll released on Thursday found that 84 percent of Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters, including 75 percent of black voters, say that a candidate’s race is not an important factor to them. 84 percent, including 83 percent of women voters, say gender is not an important factor. 64 percent of Democratic voters said it is more important that a candidate be a great leader, while 32 percent said a candidate must have “great policy ideas.”

In the recent NPR/PBS/Marist poll, three-quarters of Americans said the Mueller report should be made public, including 54 percent of Republicans, an overwhelming 90 percent of Democrats, and three-quarters of independents. NPR found that just 18 percent of respondents felt that Barr’s summary of the investigation was sufficient.

HuffPost’s poll produced similar results: 66 percent overall wanted to see the full version of the report, including 59 percent of Republicans and independents.

CNN’s SSRS poll revealed the largest consensus of three: 87 percent of Americans want the full document released to the public, including 80 percent of Republicans.

The same Quinnipiac poll finds Biden leading Sanders 29% to 19%, with Beto pulling in 12% and Kamala Harris 8%, Elizabeth Warren 4% and Pete Buttigieg 4%, and then Cory Booker and Amy Klobuchar 2% each. No other candidate received more than 1%.

Vox: “The next time a new national 2020 poll comes out, you can probably fill in the blanks yourself: Biden at 30 percent or so, Sanders trailing 5-10 points behind him, O’Rourke and Harris both hanging around at 10 percent, Warren sitting at 5 percent-ish, and then a crowd of Booker, Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Castro, and Kirsten Gillibrand with a few percentage points each.” “The story has barely changed all year. The big unknown is how durable Biden’s stubbornly consistent lead really is — and we won’t know the answer to that until he decides whether or not to run. And even then, things may not really change until the first round of debates, when the public finally turns its full attention to the presidential campaign.”

Former Trump adviser Stephen Bannon told CNBC that Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA) and Beto O’Rourke stand the best chance of giving President Trump a tough fight during the 2020 election.

Bannon, who said he doesn’t expect Trump to lose in 2020, said he would put the two Democrats on a combined ticket with Harris running for president and O’Rourke for vice president. They would be “a way to mobilize their base and give it their best shot.”

Gallup: “It is well-established that President Trump’s ratings are the most politically polarized Gallup has measured for a president. Trump’s support also has shown consistent differences by gender and by race and education, among other characteristics. What has been less clear is whether those subgroup differences mainly reflect the party leanings of those groups or if they demonstrate an appeal Trump has to certain groups that transcends partisanship.”

“A new Gallup analysis of 2019 Trump job approval data indicates that subgroup differences largely originate in the party orientation of those groups. Once party is taken into account, there is little to no variation among demographic or attitudinal subgroups. To the extent subgroup differences exist, they are more apparent among independents than among Republicans or Democrats.”

“President Trump is muscling into a blue state where Democrats are reeling: Virginia,” Politico reports. “With a tenuous grip on states like Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, the president is looking for opportunities to expand his electoral playing field. He’s set his sights on Virginia, a state where Democrats have dominated the past decade, but where the party’s three top officeholders are embroiled in scandals.”

“Leading the offensive is Vice President Mike Pence, who on Wednesday evening headlined a fundraiser in McLean for Republican state legislators up for election in November. Pence is expected to hold additional events for Virginia lawmakers in the coming months, and White House officials intend to use the 2019 elections to test whether they can make inroads in the state, which Trump lost by 5 percentage points.”

Delaware politics from a liberal, progressive and Democratic perspective. Keep Delaware Blue.

1 comment on “Polling and Campaign Report – Trump trails all in PA

  1. Biden is really getting on my nerves now. That Stacey Abrams bs convinced me his team isn’t savvy enough. The waiting and crowding of the field feels a LOT like 2016 with his “inevitableness”. That is not a good look. We’ll be back to “well you have to vote for him because if not, trump”.
    I think when he; either decides not to run, or is embarassed when others Really start running against him rather than keeping a respectful distance from a not-yet candidate, his support will go to Harris and/or Warren. Biden is the anti-Sanders for the Democrats who flat out dont want him, the way I see it anyway.

    Also, who gives a flying fuck what Steve Bannon thinks or says? Can’t we flush this turd?

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