Elections National

Polling and Campaign Report – 3/29/19

A new Pew Research poll finds a 56% majority says President Trump has done too little to distance himself from white nationalist groups, while 29% say he has done about the right amount to distance himself from such groups and 7% say he has done too much.

These views are virtually unchanged since December 2016, shortly before Trump took office.

NBC News: “Trump’s spending in early 2019 was more than the Democratic campaigns combined, but he has been outspent by some candidates in recent weeks. Beto O’Rourke outspent Trump two weeks ago, dropping $157,000 on Facebook compared to Trump’s $109,000. Last week, Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN), spent $198,000 to the president’s $150,000.”

The first Democratic debate of the 2020 presidential primary will take place on June 26 and 27 in Miami, Florida, NBC News announced.

According to a new NBC News|SurveyMonkey online poll, conducted before the release of a four-page summary of special counsel Robert Mueller’s report, 43% of Americans think President Trump will be re-elected and 43% believe the Democratic nominee will win. Nearly one in 10 Americans — 9% — believe a third-party candidate will win the presidency in 2020.

However, a differently worded Quinnipiac poll finds 53% of voters say they definitely wouldn’t vote for Trump in 2020.

David Wasserman lists the five states that will decide President Trump’s fate in 2020: Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida and Arizona. White working-class voters dominate media portrayals of the first three, but the key variable common to the first four is African-American enthusiasm and turnout.

He also notes that Colorado/Virginia (exit stage left) and Iowa/Ohio (exit stage right) are no longer swing states. I am not so sure about Iowa. It swung hard back to the left in 2018, with the Dems taking 3 of its 4 congressional seats.

Geoffrey Skelley: “If there’s one thing that’s been consistent about President Trump’s time in office, it’s his approval rating. Sure, it has moved around a bit — his average approval has hovered between 36 percent and 45 percent, a fluctuation of 9 points, over practically the entire course of his presidency.”

“But that’s a really narrow band, especially compared to previous presidents, and it has meant that his median approval rating is low — only President Harry Truman had a lower median rating. Trump’s approval rating has the least variation of any post-World War II president. Granted, Trump hasn’t yet served a full term, but changes in his approval rating have been remarkably small.”

A new American Research Group poll finds just 34% of adults in New Hampshire say they approve of the way President Trump is handling his job, while 58% disapprove, and 8% are undecided.

“Five prominent South Carolina Democrats, including three state lawmakers, are getting behind U.S. Sen. Kamala Harris in her presidential bid, offering an early boost to the California Democrat in a critical early-voting primary state,” the Charleston Post & Courier reports.

Delaware politics from a liberal, progressive and Democratic perspective. Keep Delaware Blue.

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